Chase Case #2 (2010 version)

I think at this time I would be just waiting for the next system, but I will try to finish the day with something I will move to Arkansas City, KS.
 
Thinking this is going to be a bustola, but will follow the front down to Wichita, KS by 18-19z. If nothing happens, I'll head home to save some hotel money.
 
I like the position relative to the quadrants of the ULJ in a secondary target (relative to me) in IL and vicinity, and thus the upper level dynamics there, but there looks to be more unidirectional shear there. There is probably less upper level support to the southwest, but I'm going to stick with the main existing low to my west/northwest. I like the westerly LLJ in the TOP sounding (which is where I elected to start) as well as the thermodynamics compared to the eastern target. I don't like the terrain, but I'm going to slide southeastward towards WC MO. Specifically, Butler, MO.

By the way, something is seriously messed up with the UA flow over the central US for this case. From 500 mb on down, although the height contours show some closed low/circulation centered mainly over Nebraska, the observed wind barbs for places such as OAX, LBF, and DDC are far from geostrophic. wtf...
 
That cinches it. Northwest flow--I should've known Illinois would light up. I'm blasting east on US 136 as fast as I can toward Peoria. Suddenly I feel like I'm in knee-jerk mode, but I can console myself that at least I'm headed toward home.
 
I am going to head to Springfield, IL as well. I'll hang out with Jesse at a Cracker Barrel for lunch (Jeremy, you are invited as well!). Then call Kevin, telling him to get down to Springfield since he doesn't have a data card :)
 
Okay, I'll stop at Madison, WI since I'm on my way home. Seeing the composite map has given me some confidence when combined with the MPX sounding, which shows a screaming NNE mid level jet and fairly steep lapse rates. Perhaps the steepening lapse rates and speed shear will give me something to play with.
 
Jeff Duda said:
I like the position relative to the quadrants of the ULJ in a secondary target (relative to me) in IL and vicinity, and thus the upper level dynamics there, but there looks to be more unidirectional shear there. There is probably less upper level support to the southwest, but I'm going to stick with the main existing low to my west/northwest. I like the westerly LLJ in the TOP sounding (which is where I elected to start) as well as the thermodynamics compared to the eastern target. I don't like the terrain, but I'm going to slide southeastward towards WC MO. Specifically, Butler, MO.

By the way, something is seriously messed up with the UA flow over the central US for this case. From 500 mb on down, although the height contours show some closed low/circulation centered mainly over Nebraska, the observed wind barbs for places such as OAX, LBF, and DDC are far from geostrophic. wtf...
Click to expand...

Looks like an error in the station data at LBF @ 12z "day of," or an extremely compact low... but I'm betting against the latter.
 
Eastbound on US 36 toward IL.....going to try and make it to Normal, IL to check data.....300mb speed max along with a mid-level S/W embedded in the NWLY flow will need to be watched as I get sparse data traveling across US 36...borderline Dp's needed for severe wx are already in the target area....hoping there continues to be moisture return into the area as evidenced by the composite data provided..clear the activity on-going in the target area and the atmosphere MAY have enough time to destabilize during diurnal heating.....area clearing out and peak heating looks to happen in concert....time will tell...
 
*Those of you hoping for a vis-sat image, I am afraid to report that on this day there was some sort of malfunction with feedback as I have now gone to 3 different sources and cannot get anything before 22z for this day. Radars were even down from 7z to 17z. So for that I apologize. I can provide the composites. Even the IR imagery is from later this day.

18z-20z update

WATCH/MD

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

FROM: 1:10 P.M. UNTIL..... 8:00 P.M.
Click to expand...


SYNOPTIC

18z composite
19z composite
20z composite

SURFACE (1843)

N. Plains
Upper MS. Valley
Midwest
High Plains

REGIONAL RADAR (19z)

C. Plains
Upper MS. Valley
Midwest

LIVE CHASE: STORM BASED WARNINGS



svrrock155.jpg

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ROCK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 153 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF JANESVILLE...OR ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF EVANSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
JANESVILLE AT 215 PM CDT.
CLINTON AT 240 PM CDT.
-------------------------------
svrstark155.jpg

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS
STARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 152 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF OSCEOLA TO SPARLAND...OR FROM 10 MILES EAST OF KEWANEE TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LACON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

*THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... DAMAGING HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
---------------------------

svrpeoria215.jpg


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PEORIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE...OR ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF LACON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DUNLAP
CHILLICOTHE
ROME
SPRING BAY
GERMANTOWN HILLS
METAMORA
-------------------------------
torkankakee245.jpg


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 241 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG ROTATION IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOURBONNAIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BOURBONNAIS AROUND 250 PM CDT.
BRADLEY AROUND 255 PM CDT.
AROMA PARK AROUND 300 PM CDT
---------------------------------------
torpeoria245.jpg



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 240 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION OVER GERMANTOWN HILLS...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF PEORIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AT ANY TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF A TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. GO TO A SAFE PLACE NOW!

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
METAMORA
EAST PEORIA
WASHINGTON
EUREKA

LSR:

1940 - Germantown Hills - TORNADO - 1 home damaged

1942 - 1 N of Washington - TORNADO - Relayed by Storm Spotter - (1959) damage to a shed reported

1955 - Washington - HAIL - Baseball sized hail

1955 - Germantown Hills - HAIL - golf ball sized hail covering the road

1958 - 3 SW of Metamora - TORNADO - Reported by Emergency Management

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. THE TORNADO IS LIKELY OBSCURED BY RAIN AND MAY NOT BE VISIBLE. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA...GO TO A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. DO NOT REMAIN IN YOUR CAR OR MOBILE HOME.
 
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