Chase Case #5 (2010 Version)

[Marcus Diaz]

Oops missed last nights update.

18z update - I'm liking the couple CU towers in the OK panhandle and that area. Looks pretty clear here and the dryline is starting to mix further south. So I'm heading north from Childress to Canadian, TX.

19z - should be in Wheeler, TX by this time, and I'm favoring the OK Panhandle for something to fire. Maybe even get one of those stray storms from SE CO. Targeting Guymon, OK for now. I should arrive there at 20:30z (I know shortcuts around here), and I may or may not adjust again from what the 21z says.

 

[Matt Sellers]

Left Scott City at 19z to intercept the storms moving out of CO; drove the approximately 70 miles to Wallace, KS, arriving just before 2030z. Watching a tornado near Wallace, KS at 2030z and plotting a track to stay with these southeast-moving cells.

 

[Ryan Orlando]

I'm going to stay in Paducah, TX. I possibly see something developing off to my west. Hope the action in the panhandle starts soon!

 

[Jesse Risley]

21z - 23z Suite of Updates

As always, your current locations (per previous posts) as of the 21z time frame can be found here. Keep posting updates on your whereabouts.

In order to make the simulation as realistic as possible, you may wish to calculate the estimated time of travel between your current location and your next target location, if you are moving after seeing this round of updates.


Surface Maps
21z Satellite/Surface Composite
22z Satellite/Surface Composite
21z Wichita, KS Regional Surface Composite
22z Wichita, KS Regional Surface Composite
23z Wichita, KS Regional Surface Composite



Visible Satellite Imagery
2115z National Satellite Composite
2215z National Satellite Composite
2315z National Satellite Composite
2115z Central Plains Composite
2145z Central Plains Composite
2215z Central Plains Composite
2245z Central Plains Composite

Radar Composites
21z National Composite
22z National Composite
23z National Composite

• Central Plains

21z Central Plains Composite
2130z Central Plains Composite
22z Central Plains Composite
2230z Central Plains Composite
23z Central Plains Composite

• Southern Plains

21z Southern Plains Composite
2130z Southern Plains Composite
22z Southern Plains Composite
2230z Southern Plains Composite
23z Southern Plains Composite

SVR T-STORM WATCH

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
539 PM CDT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE FROM 545 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

TOR LSRs

[SIZE=-1][/SIZE][SIZE=-1]

[/SIZE]

• [SIZE=-1]2120[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]11 NE TRIBUNE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]WICHITA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3859[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10158[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] TORNADO WAS ON GROUND FOR 5 MINUTES. REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (GLD)[/SIZE]

• [SIZE=-1]2122[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]16 E SHARON SPGS [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]LOGAN [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3888[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10139[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (GLD)[/SIZE]

• [SIZE=-1]2128[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 8 S LEOTI [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]WICHITA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3834[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10134[/SIZE] REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (GLD)

• [SIZE=-1]2128[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 8 W LEOTI [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]WICHITA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3848[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10152[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (GLD)[/SIZE]

• [SIZE=-1]2138[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] LYDIA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]WICHITA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3828[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10130[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] SMALL GRAIN ELEVATOR DEMOLISHED. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (GLD)[/SIZE]

Hail LSRs

[SIZE=-1]
[/SIZE]

• [SIZE=-1]2109[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]175[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 6 N LEOTI [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]WICHITA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3858[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10134[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (GLD)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2115[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]200[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]13 ESE FRIEND [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]FINNEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3818[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10066[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2118[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 75[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]STANTON [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3756[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10174[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2125[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 7 E BRISTOW [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]CREEK [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3583[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9623[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORT (TUL)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2125[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 1 W TURON [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]RENO [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3779[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9845[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] PUBLIC REPORT (ICT)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2130[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 75[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] PATTERSON [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]HARVEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3794[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2135[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]175[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] CIMARRON [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]GRAY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3779[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10034[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2135[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]12 N GARDEN CITY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]FINNEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3816[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10086[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2135[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 75[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] CHEYENNE WELLS [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]CHEYENNE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]CO[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3881[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10234[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (GLD)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2140[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]175[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] WINFIELD [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]COWLEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3725[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9698[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2145[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]24 NE GARDEN CITY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]FINNEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3824[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10050[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2200[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 75[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]14 W JETMORE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]HODGEMAN [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3808[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10019[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2203[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 88[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] TULSA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]TULSA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3625[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9594[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] NICKEL sizeD HAIL AT TELEVISION STATION DOWNTOWN. (TUL)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2219[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]175[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 1 W KALVESTA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]FINNEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3808[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10025[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2225[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]175[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] BIXBY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]TULSA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3625[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9594[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] HAM RADIO REPORT OF GOLFBALL sizeD HAIL AND TREES DOWNED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF BIXBY (TUL)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2233[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]175[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] UDALL [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]COWLEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3738[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9711[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 3 WEST OF HIGHWAY 18 SOUTH OF UDALL (ICT)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2234[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 75[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9 SW DODGE CITY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]FORD [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3764[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10015[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2239[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]175[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] WINFIELD [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]COWLEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3725[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9698[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT IN NORTH WINFIELD (ICT)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2240[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 75[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] HOLCOMB [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]FINNEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3798[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10098[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] WIND GUST TO 60 MPH (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2241[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]175[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] STONEBLUFF [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]WAGONER [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3588[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9573[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] GOLFBALL sizeD HAIL HAM RADIO REPORT. (TUL)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2242[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]175[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] KINGMAN [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KINGMAN [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3764[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9811[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED GOLFBALL HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF KINGMAN (ICT)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2243[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]175[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 2 N DODGE CITY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]FORD [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3778[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10001[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]2250[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 75[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] HASKELL [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]MUSKOGEE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3581[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9566[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY HASKELL FIRE (TUL)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2250[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]175[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] TURON [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]RENO [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3779[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9843[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] GOLFBALL REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (ICT)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2254[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 75[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]SUMNER [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3748[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9725[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] DIME HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC THROUGH EOC (ICT)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2256[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 6 N BRISTOW [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]CREEK [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3593[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9638[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] SPOTTER REPORT (TUL)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2256[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] CHENEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]SEDGWICK [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3763[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9778[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED QUARTER HAIL (ICT)[/SIZE]

Damaging Wind LSRs

• [SIZE=-1]2102[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 70[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 2 N WYNONA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OSAGE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3658[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9633[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] HAM RADIO REPORT OF 70 MPH WINDS AND MOBILE HOME DAMAGE. (TUL)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2110[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] WYNONA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OSAGE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3654[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9633[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]2130[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 8 S LEOTI [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]WICHITA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3834[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10134[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] NUMEROUS POWER LINES DOWNED. (GLD)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2157[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 62[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] TULSA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]TULSA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3625[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9594[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] 62 MPH GUST AT TELEVISION STATION DOWNTOWN. (TUL)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2200[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 70[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 5 NE GARDEN CITY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]FINNEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3802[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10079[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2214[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] TULSA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]TULSA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3625[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9594[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] LARGE TREE DOWNED. HAM RADIO REPORT (TUL)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2215[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 58[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]FORD [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3776[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9996[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] KDDC METAR 272216Z 05037G50KT 6SM -TSRA PK WND 05050/2215 (SPC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2216[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 78[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] LAKIN [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KEARNY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3794[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10125[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]2226[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 60[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] BIXBY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]TULSA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3625[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9594[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] HAM RADIO REPORT (TUL)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2227[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 80[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]FINNEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3796[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10086[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] LOTS OF TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES DOWN (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2232[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 60[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] FORT DODGE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]FORD [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3773[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9993[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2237[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 7 SW PIERCEVILLE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]FINNEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3780[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10077[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] DOPPLER ON WHEELS MEASURED (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2239[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 8 N CIMARRON [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]GRAY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3793[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10034[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2240[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 79[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 1 N GARDEN CITY[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3798[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10086[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (DDC)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2254[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]14 NNE SUBLETTE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]HASKELL [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3769[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10073[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] IRRIGATION SPRINKLER SYSTEM BLOWN OVER; SIDING BLOWN FROM HOUSE; WINDOW BROKEN (DDC)[/SIZE]

 

[Jeff Duda]

Well, things went down the way I thought they would as of the last update (19-20Z). I would've been just west of Dodge City by about 22Z which would've put a ----ton of cores lined up parallel to and just northeast of 400/50, which I would've been on. From radar trends it looks like there may have been brief spin-ups (storm scale, not tornadic necessarily) in some of these storms, but I probably would've gotten cored to death along this road. Looks like that's about all I'll see here, but maybe I'll squeeze out a gustnado along the developing gust front in the next hour or two.

By 23Z, I'd probably be down by Minneola, KS staying along the leading edge of the cores.

 

[cstrunk]

Well, it sure doesn't look good for me sitting in Seiling, OK. The action is up in Kansas and it's turning into a great big blob of crap. I'm going to move northwest to Fort Supply, OK to see if I catch anything on the southwest side of this mess as it comes down from Kansas. It looks like a small, but isolate cell is coming towards me. I'll try to intercept that for now.

My other option would be to head northeast to intercept the cell by Alva, OK. I guess I'll stick with this for now. I don't feel very optimistic.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Heading to Oklahoma City... Should be there in the next 1hr 15 mins (at 0z). Going after that developing Cb / storm that looks like it's near Kingfisher, OK.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Going SE to the cell going up near Kingfisher. The stuff in KS is turning into a mess and at least I'll be chasing towards home this way. Maybe I'll get lucky.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Im bolting east down 40 towards OKC as well. Hope to catch that Kingfisher storm as it looks like its moving into a favorable environment with rich moisture and backed surface winds.

 

[Chad Moore]

Giving up on the OK panhandle. I like the look of the tail end charlie of the agglomeration of Kansas supercells from 21Z radar. Heading for that, I would have been about 60 minutes late for the Lydia tornado. My last play is for Montezuma, KS getting there at 23Z.

I think I paid too much attention to the surface map and not enough attention to the unfolding day as seen by satellite.

 

[ChristianTerry]

Following a cell thats popped up south of the line. Leaving Kiowa and heading through Carmen, OK. This cell could become something shortly. Take about 45 minutes to get there and I probably won't be staying for long.

 

[Ryan Orlando]

I'm going to head northwest toward Turkey, TX. Saw clouds off to northeast moving southwest from an OFB. Leave Paducah at 22Z and arrive in Turkey around 2245Z.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

I'm going to the storm with the history on it. I probably had a little fun with the LP storm out of Stanton county, KS, but now I'm going to the big mess up north. Going to stick with it in north-central Haskell County, KS and see what happens on the 0z.

 

[Danny Neal]

Also on the Kingfisher storm.. about 45 minutes to my east. I was tempted to bolt both after the storm NW of Enid, but the Kingfisher one was more convenient.

 

[Joshua Nall]

I made it up past Liberal, KS and decided to cut over toward that lone cell. Back near Liberal, KS now, looking at a little LP storm most likely.