Chase Case #5 (2010 Version)

[Ed Boik]

Holding tight at Canadian, TX and waiting for convection to fire in the OK panhandle and ahead of the dryline.

 

[Jesse Risley]

19z - 20z Suite of Updates

As always, your current locations (per previous posts) as of the 19z - 20z time frame can be found here. Let us know where you plan to move, if you are changing your strategy based on this update.

The next suite of data will become available later tonight for 21z.

In order to make the simulation as realistic as possible, you may wish to calculate the estimated time of travel between your current location and your next target location, if you are moving after seeing this round of updates.


Surface Maps
19z Satellite/Surface Composite
20z Satellite/Surface Composite
19z Wichita, KS Regional Surface Composite
20z Wichita, KS Regional Surface Composite
19z Austin, TX Regional Surface Composite
20z Austin, TX Regional Surface Composite


Visible Satellite Imagery
1915z National Satellite Composite
2015z National Satellite Composite
19z Central Plains Composite
1930z Central Plains Composite
20z Central Plains Composite
2030z Central Plains Composite

Radar Composites
19z National Composite
20z National Composite

• Central Plains

19z Central Plains Composite
1930z Central Plains Composite
20z Central Plains Composite
2030z Central Plains Composite

• Southern Plains

19z Southern Plains Composite
1930z Southern Plains Composite
20z Southern Plains Composite
2030z Southern Plains Composite

Mesoscale Discussions

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR S-CENTRAL/SERN KS..N-CENTRAL/NERN OK..FAR SWRN MO..FAR NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...

INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT SLOWLY SSEWD
ACROSS SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED STRONGLY
OUTFLOW DOMINATED DESPITE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AT LMN PROFILER/...WITH WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SURGING IN ALL DIRECTIONS FROM MAIN UPDRAFT CORES TO THE SW AND SE OF ICT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO DICTATE NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT...WITHIN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MEAN-MIXED PARCEL CAPES YIELD 2000-2500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE WW AND OK. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AS COLD POOL SPREADS OUTWARD. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT/ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY... WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING SSEWD PORTION OF COLD POOL FOR ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND A MORE CONSOLIDATED LINE OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WOULD ALSO BE A MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL. IF THIS OCCURS THEN NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SSEWD INTO MORE OF OK/FAR WRN AR.

SVR T-STORM WATCH

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
EXTREME NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE FROM 330 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

TOR LSRs

[SIZE=-1]
[/SIZE]

• [SIZE=-1] 2035[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 1 E WALLACE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]WALLACE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3891[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10156[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (GLD)[/SIZE]

• [SIZE=-1]2039[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10 WNW WINONA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]LOGAN [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3912[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10144[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] TORNADO ON GROUND ABOUT 5 MINUTES. REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (GLD)[/SIZE]

Hail LSRs

[SIZE=-1]
[/SIZE]

• [SIZE=-1]1907[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 1 N CAMBRIDGE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]COWLEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3733[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9666[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED (ICT)[/SIZE]

• [SIZE=-1]1915[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 3 NE KANORADO [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]SHERMAN [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3936[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10198[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (GLD)[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]1930[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 4 N CEDAR [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]CHAUTAUQUA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3713[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9625[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY PUBLIC (ICT)[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]1930[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]125[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 2 S CARUSO [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]SHERMAN [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3929[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10178[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] (GLD)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]1932[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 8 S ARGONIA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]SUMNER [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3713[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9776[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] SUMNER COUNTY EOC (ICT)[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]1950[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]250[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] CALDWELL [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]SUMNER [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3703[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9759[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 1 INCH DEEP GOLFBALL TO TENNISBALL sizeD HAIL (ICT)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2000[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 88[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 1 E MT HOPE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]SEDGWICK [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3786[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9764[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED NICKEL HAIL. (ICT)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2010[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]200[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 1 E CALDWELL [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]SUMNER [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3703[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9757[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED MIX OF GOLFBALL AND HEN EGG sizeD HAIL (ICT)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2014[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 88[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] FORAKER [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OSAGE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3686[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9655[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY PUBLIC (TUL)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2014[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 88[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] MAIZE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]SEDGWICK [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3776[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9746[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] NICKEL HAIL REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER (ICT)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2030[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 75[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]17 NNW WALLACE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]WALLACE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3917[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10172[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (GLD)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2035[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]175[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 6 N LEOTI [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]WICHITA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3858[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10134[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (GLD)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]2037[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]100[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 2 S PATTERSON [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]HARVEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3791[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9764[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER sizeD HAIL (ICT)[/SIZE]

Damaging Wind LSRs

• [SIZE=-1]UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] BURRTON [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]HARVEY [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3801[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9766[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TREE BLOWN OVER (ICT)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]70[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] WALLACE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]WALLACE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]KS[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3891[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]10158[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (GLD)[/SIZE]
• [SIZE=-1]UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 5 W PAWHUSKA [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OSAGE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]OK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]3666[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 9643[/SIZE]

 

[Robert Dewey]

Looking more and more like a bust for my target, but I'll stick with it. There's definitely some type of boundary there, and I love the moisture pooling... just looks like things might be capped off though, judging by the VIS.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Still holding in Seiling, OK, but I'm beginning to get the sickening feeling that comes from TOR reports a couple hours away from you.

 

[Danny Neal]

Well Arnett, it has been nice... i have stuck with you for almost 24 hours now... but I think Watonga, OK is calling my name. It is an 1:34 for you slowpoke, but I can make it there in 1:15. Considering I would have made this decision based on the 19z data, I will be in Watonga by 2020z. Not feeling overly confident, but I believe if storms are going to go in OK they will be in this general vicinity or slightly to the N and E.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Wow, what a POS I followed...

Jesse, thanks for posting the 30-minute satellite loops. Definitely helps with the realism. In fact, from the images, I can tell that I would've followed that wimpy tower near Greensburg before southeastward as it fizzled and joined the developing cirrus shield from other convection across SC KS/NC OK. I would probably be around Medicine Lodge again by 20Z and probably wouldn't be pursuing those storms much further as they really don't look very impressive. Also, the boundary has become much more clear as of 20Z surface obs and the action in NW KS/E CO is most likely firing off of that as well as off the upslope flow.

Looks like there is still convergence well to my south in NW TX so something could still happen down there, but it's too far for me to get in the next few hours. If I start heading back northwest, I can be in Scott City by about 23Z if I speed. I think what I'm going to do is along those lines: start sliding northwest from where I would've been at 20Z (medicine Lodge) and follow that boundary west and northwest into W KS to see if any more storms should light up along it on my way. I could still get a discrete storm out of it. I see some cloud streets in the area indicating the presence of HCRs which means something could still go in this area. I'll hope for that as I head west and northwest along US 281 to US 54/400 to US 50/400 to US 83. By 21Z I'll be in Greensburg, KS again.

 

[ChristianTerry]

Holding posistion in Kiowa, KS.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Starting to feel like a bust in Sayre, OK but it's still early and seeing that I'd never make it to western Kansas in time I'm going to stay here till dark and see if anything goes.

 

[Scott Hammel]

I also probably would've bitten on that cell near Greensburg as I was just S of it in Protection. I'm getting that bad feeling in my stomach watching a nice looking cell in E CO on radar only an hour or so from my house! I'm going to try to get back N and W. I should be just S of Dodge City, KS when the 21Z update comes out...

 

[Brandon Jenkins]

Considered drifting northeast but that will just put me further from home. I will be staying put in Sayre, OK for now and keeping a close eye out for any developments that might warrant a quick move. Looks like it could be an early return home.

 

[Ben Tillotson]

I'll go west to Liberal, KS. It should take about an hour to get there.

 

[David Wolfson]

Have slipped a bit east to Protection, KS, to track the train of cells moving southeast.

 

[Josh VandenTop]

Out of boredom I'm going to make a short move from Woodward down to Seiling, OK and wait to see if anythig fires close enough to go after.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Based on the 1915 satellite, I headed north out of Woodward into Kansas and am presently sitting at the corner of US 283 and US 160, contemplating towers rising to my north and northwest along a boundary. I'm going to head for those. Looks like more cells trying to get started to my west; if one of those becomes a player, I can drop south again, but right now I'm choosing the obvious.

 

[Joshua Nall]

I can only make it to Perryton, TX by 21z.