Chase Case #5 (2010 Version)

[Jesse Risley]

18z Suite of Data

Everyone's location as of 18z is on this map. In order to make the simulation as realistic as possible, you may wish to calculate your ETA when traveling from point A to point B should you opt for a location change. There will be 19z and 20z data provided either tonight or sometime tomorrow.

Surface
18z Satellite/Surface Composite
18z Surface Wichita, Kansas (ICT) sector
18z Surface Austin, Texas (AUS) sector

Radar
18z national radar composite
18z Central Plains composite
1830z Central Plains composite
18z Southern Plains composite
1830z Southern Plains composite

Visible Satellite Imagery
18z CONUS composite
1745z Wichita, KS composite (ICT)
1815z Wichita, KS composite (ICT)

Mesoscale Discussion - 1820z

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR NERN CO..WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...IF CONVECTION NOW
INCREASING OVER NERN CO PERSISTS INTO ERN CO/WRN KS WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXISTS.

CONVECTION HAS STEADILY INCREASED IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BOTH WV IMAGERY AND LATEST MODELS SUGGEST SUBTLE VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO NERN CO

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SVR T-Storm Watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
112 PM CDT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE FROM 145 PM UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

 

[ChristianTerry]

Moving North to Kiowa, KS.

 

[Danny Neal]

Arnett, OK for the 4th time

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'll head to Lawton, OK. Should take about 2 hours, so the next data will be in by then. I'm still more interested in the surface moisture pooling and backed surface winds, but we'll see if that pans out. Cu field isn't looking too vigorous at the moment.

 

[Tom Dulong]

Moving North to Kiowa, KS.

Ditto for me. Leaving Woodward, OK now (1845Z) and should arrive in Kiowa, KS around 2000Z. Cell developing just east of Dodge City should move southeastward along the boundary toward my new target.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Staying put in Woodward.

 

[Ben Tillotson]

Still going to stay in Buffalo.

 

[Rocky Watson]

Staying put for now in Coldwater KS, watching CU to my northwest near DDC

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Moving east from Shamrock to Sayre, OK to stick close to the boundary.

 

[Matt Sellers]

Staying in Scott City, KS for now, with a close eye on CU fields to my west/WNW and southwest. US83 provides for a quick route south if needed.

 

[Verne Carlson]

holding steading in Sayre, OK

 

[Scott Hammel]

I like the look of some cells starting to initiate in S KS. I'm going to head N out of Perryton and make the 2 hour drive to Protection, KS and wait for the 20Z update.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

No reason to move yet, although those storms in KS are tempting. Still in Seiling, OK.

 

[Jeff Duda]

As of the 1815 vis sat image, it looks like something is popping not too far to my northeast near Dodge City. Looks like there's at least 1 or 2 boundaries still evident in surface data and on satellite, all parallel to each other and running NW-SE. One is to my immediate northeast, the others are to my south and west. I will venture up to the developing tower that will be heading southeast. That'll take me east along U.S. 54/400 towards Greensburg, KS. Should be there by 19Z.

 

[Josh VandenTop]

Although its hard for me to stay put, I'm gonna try to have some patience and hang out in Woodward, OK for a bit longer and wait for the next data.