Chase Case #5 (2010 Version)

[Ed Boik]

Although I would like to drift a bit further south, I'm going to sit tight for the time and wait for the new data.

 

[Jesse Risley]

17z Suite of Updates

Current chaser positions are available here. I will update the map as those participating continue to change locations/positions. I will post another update later this evening for the 18z - 20z time frame.


SPC 1630z Synopsis

MDT RISK OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE SEWD IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SEVERAL POSSIBLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MAY
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE WISE...MOISTURE HAS RETURNED NWD ACROSS TX AND OK INTO KS AND ERN CO.....STEEP LAPSE RATES....COUPLED WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON....T-STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF ERN CO/WRN KS/TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK..WITH STRONG 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR AND SRH OF 150-300 M/S....POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP AND SPREAD SE...A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

17z Surface Data
National Satellite/Surface Composite
Wichita, Kansas Regional (ICT)
Austin, Texas Regional (AUS)

17z Radar Data
National Radar Composite
Central Plains Composite
Southern Plains Composite

17z Visible Satellite Imagery
National Composite
Wichita, Kansas Regional Composite (ICT)

Mesoscale Discussion (1701z)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL AND SE KS...EXTREME NE OK...FAR NWRN AR...AND SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS ALONG A GBD TO SGF LINE. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW AT THIS TIME.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Ok, well I'm going to make my way SE slowly towards Childress, TX to chat up with everyone

 

[Robert Dewey]

Satellite is looking good for W OK... But I just can't leave that stationary boundary with backed winds and 84/75F T/Td in S central OK. I guess I'll stay in Ardmore, OK.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Dewpoints juicing up nicely here in Woodward and a boundary lifting my way. I'm staying put for now. Good moisture all along the OK panhandle plus the dryline setting up in New Mexico may nudge me west in a while, but right now the satellite makes me think this is a good place to hang out.

ADDENDUM: I see another boundary stretching diagonally across DDC all the way to southeast Arkansas, where thunderstorms are firing by the river. (Use your imagination to connect the dots across most of Oklahoma.) If I didn't like where I'm at here in Woodward, I'd want to be up in Dodge City, trusting that the moisture will beef up nicely. Might just bump up there yet, we'll see.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Probably managed to make it a little farther west than Medicine Lodge by 17Z, and given the few obs out in SW KS, looks like there's still a boundary present between DDC, GCK, and LBL and I like the 78/70 with SW at 10 kts so I will continue west along U.S. 160 in the general direction of Meade, KS, but will continue to head west from there pending further updates.

 

[Chad Moore]

I'm tempted to run up to the OK/NM/TX border. With dewpoints like that at that high an elevation and strong backed winds, something has got to pop. But the company is good here in Childress, TX, and I like that I can either run NW toward Amarillo, TX N toward Canadian, TX or east toward Ardmore, OK. so I'll stay in Childress for now and plan on having SE moving storms come to me!

 

[Joerg Kudella]

I´ll stay put in Childress with a close eye on the cu field up to my north. Waiting for the dryline to get things firing up.

 

[Danny Neal]

I am currently sitting underneath a boundary in ARNETT, OK 79/65 NNW wind. Like the previous TWO updates I am not moving yet, unless I see tcu on said boundary..... then I will drift with the boundary wherever it goes.... so I will be in that general area

 

[Scott Hammel]

I'm going to drift just slightly N from Canadian up to Perryton, TX. I too see that boundary starting to form near DDC and just want to be a tad closer in case storms fire in that area. Still leaves me good road options to jump back S if I have to.

 

[Bret Hendrickson]

Just finished lunch and moving up to Shamrock, TX to await 18Z data. I like the dryline push through AMA and want to be in position if storms fire in cu field over NW OK.

 

[Dan Melby]

Starting to like what I see in western OK. Currently on HWY 11 heading west . I should arrive in Woodward, OK by 19Z.

 

[James Gustina]

I'm gonna move west to Buffalo, OK

 

[Zack Cooper]

Going to move E to find the better dewpoints... going to leave immediately for Paducah, tx

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Going to try to split the difference a bit by heading north and a bit east to Seiling, OK.