CHASE CASE #2

[John Farley]

I'm liking the backed surface winds in south-central KS, but notice they are veering southwest of there. This makes me think that the area of best directional shear may shift northeast, to somewhere north of ICT. Since I just crossed into Kansas around 15Z, I've got at least a couple hours until I get to I-35, which will be my decision time whether to continue west or move north into the area where it looks like the best directional shear may be heading.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

I'll stay where I'm at in Memphis, TX and grab a little nap, then a little lunch, while waiting for things to develop.

 

[Matt Gingery]

16Z SYNOPTIC​

 

[Charles Kuster]

I am going to stay in Shamrock, TX and grab some lunch before looking over the 18Z data.

Edit: 16Z synoptic update did not change my plan. The road options are good here, so I should be able to move quickly north, south, or west if necessary.

 

[Matt Gingery]

THERE WILL BE A FULL 18Z UPDATE SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY 21Z, 23Z, AND 0Z UPDATES. TOMORROW WILL BE A BIG CHASE DAY FOR MANY. IF THE SCHEDULE CONFLICTS WITH ANYONE FEEL FREE TO LET ME KNOW AND WE CAN MAYBE SPREAD THE CHASE OUT THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE NEED MARC AND/OR PAUL AUSTIN TO JUMP IN ON THE FUN. THOSE GUYS CAN REALLY PUT TOGETHER AN AWESOME CHASE CASE. I WOULD LOVE NOTHING MORE THAN TO BE AT THE CHASING END OF THINGS.

 

[Matt Gingery]

16Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK​

SPC
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SE SD/CNTRL AND ERN
NEB/WRN AND CNTRL KS/WRN AND CNTRL OK/WRN AND N TX....

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN
PLNS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. SRN
STREAM....WHICH ATTM EXTENDS FROM AZ/NM INTO THE TN VLY...EXPECTED
TO SHOW LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT RIDGING NOW APPARENT IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE
SRN HI PLNS. STRONGER NRN STREAM JET WILL CONTINUE FROM WA/NRN ID
MT INTO S CNTRL CANADA. SRN EXTENSION OF A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NRN
STREAM APPEARS TO BE OVER CNTRL NEB/ERN CO ATTM AND SHOULD CONTINUE
ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE EXPECTED. COMPLEX PATTERN
WITH SEGMENTED LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM CNTRL SD/NEB
SSWWD INTO W TX/SE NM. LOW NOW OVER SE CO/SW KS APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY THERMALLY-DRIVEN WILL PROBABLY DEEPEN A LITTLE WITH SURFACE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHT BACKING OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX/WRN OK/WRN KS.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS IN N TX APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING...
BUT WRN PART OF THIS FEATURE MAY REMAIN A FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LATER TODAY IN WRN OK/THE TX PNHDL/SW KS. WARM FRONT
FARTHER S ACROSS W CNTRL TX SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AND DRIFT N.
FARTHER N...PART OF SD SURFACE WAVE WILL TRACK ENE WITH NRN STREAM
IMPULSE INTO MN...BUT TROUGHING WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER SD ONCE
AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER
WA/ID.

...WRN TX NNEWD INTO SW KS...
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY
APPARENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS REGION INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE CIN WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR WITH SWD EXTENT /PARTICULARLY OVER SW TX/...
DECIDED SE COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW UP THE RIO GRANDE VLY WILL
ENHANCE UPSLOPE FLOW/CONVERGENCE. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE NEUTRAL AT
BEST. BUT GIVEN DEGREE OF AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
/SBCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG/...AND 45-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH SRN STREAM JET...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF NUMEROUS DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND TORNADOES.

...N CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL AND ERN NEB/SE SD/WRN IA...
A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INVOF SD SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING S
INTO NRN KS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE..WHILE SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
REGION ATTM...SHOULD INCREASE OVER REGION THROUGH THE DAY BOTH AS
A RESULT OF DOWNWARD MIXING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER HERE THAN ACROSS THE
SRN PLNS. AS A RESULT...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BOOST SBCAPE TO AOA
3000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW AND
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE...SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND PERHAPS
A COUPLE TORNADOES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT. PART OF THE MCS
MAY MOVE E ACROSS IA/NRN MO AND INTO WRN IL BY DAWN. AT THE SAME
TIME...SOME UPSTREAM/BACK-BUILDING DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR SWWD
INTO PARTS OF SRN NEB/NRN KS AS LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE INFLUX
INCREASE OVER THAT REGION.

 

[Jeff Duda]

With each update I want to go further and further north. Now I will choose to go for Hastings, NE.

 

[John Farley]

The latest data confirms my thinking that southwest KS is the place to be. I will continue west toward Coldwater, though I would not surprised if I end up continuing on a little farther west than there, perhaps to around Meade if I can make it that far west before initiation. If not, I will get as far as I can, then plot an intercept based on radar and storm movement. As the triple-point low tracks northeast along the front, conditions should be very favorable for supercells in southwest KS.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Hanging out in Liberal see no need to move just yet. Will keep an eye on the movement of the developing low here in SW KS, and also watch for the retreating warm front.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

I have decided to bail west on my way to Nebraska City, NE....I will be heading to Beatrice, NE. Should still arrive around 18z for the new update.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I'm going to leave Clinton and mosey up to Woodward, OK. I don't think the difference is huge, and if that 16Z outlook is to be believed, then there'll be plenty for everyone.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Moving from Blackwell, OK to Elk City, OK to wait on data...a lot of stuff going on for me this weekend so I will not be able to check back much...

 

[Shane Adams]

I'll continue my plans to head to Vernon, TX. With as many "gaps" as this data set presents me (relative to how I do this for real), this is just like visual chasing.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Looking at the deeper moisture banked up on the Caprock and the pretty far west DL...this looks like a good TX Panhandle chase in my opinion with a likely triple point play somewhere in this area. Am going to head down and camp out in Canyon and play the middle ground on I-27. May grab a quick lunch at the Big Texan on the way through AMA. Trying to recall this one as a RL chase. Hmmmmm. Hefty wording by SPC leaves me with spinning drive in the old memory bank....lol

 

[Bob Hartig]

Still hanging out in Woodward, waiting for the 18Z run. Amarillo looks great, but there's already a carnival down there, and I don't like crowds. Kurt, I may bump up there and join you; I may need to at least head west into the panhandle in a while, we'll see. Presently, though, I'm gonna sit tight. The moisture and surface winds are to my liking right here.