CHASE CASE #2

[Paul Townsend]

Staying in Woodward, OK until 15Z data comes out. Tempted to head to Elk City to hedge further south and to be on I40 to blast west and southwest if need be, but I think I'll have enough time to get to those potential initiation areas.

Once again doing the middle ground thing between the right rear quadrant of the upper jet to my south, and the cyclonic shear side of the mid-level jet in central KS to my northeast. The favorable low-level shear for tornadic storms is in the southern option.

 

[Lanny Dean]

Going over 12z and day 1 outlook... it looks like the warmfront may make a good strong push north past the Red River later in the day. I like the area I have choosen but think I might make a play to the west just a bit. Chad Berryhill and I are slowly making our way to Magnum OK. I have called Kris Hair and may meet up with he and Ben Holcomb in Altus later but right now Magnum is as far as I want to go west.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am headed to Childress, TX. I should be there by 18z.

 

[Matt Gingery]

15Z UPDATE​

VISIBLE SATELLITE

CONUS: http://i47.tinypic.com/1zn2z5w.jpg

MIDWEST: http://i49.tinypic.com/2zhqn8j.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/2a5hu6s.jpg

SURFACE PLOTS

CENTRAL ROCKIES: http://i49.tinypic.com/2m7d6gw.gif

MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/2h8danm.gif

N PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/33wl0gn.gif

S PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/20fuuww.gif

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/5dmhxl.gif

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i47.tinypic.com/i1y9zt.gif

N PLAINS: http://i50.tinypic.com/a2gi3b.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/2vjsnlg.gif

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i46.tinypic.com/300a7wj.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION​

ON MIDWEST VISIBLE SATELLITE I HAVE CIRCLED THE AREA MENTIONED IN THIS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION. UNFORTUNATELY I COULDN'T FIND THE MAP DATA TO GO ALONG WITH THIS DISCUSSION.

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OK ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
HAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE ATTM.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS OVER WA****A AND CADDO COUNTIES
IN W CNTRL OK HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY DURING THE LAST HALF
HOUR...AND ARE MOVING TO THE NE AT 20-25 KT. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THESE TSTMS ARE ELEVATED/ROOTED BETWEEN 800-700 MB. HOWEVER...
GIVEN OBSERVED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOIST SSWLY 850
MB 25-30 KT INFLOW INTO THIS REGION...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.



WAYFARING MAP: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60497

 

[Scott Olson]

I'm moving to Childress.

 

[Scott Olson]

Now I'm reliazing I should have stayed near Tea, South Dakota!

 

[CZandbergen]

I am going to sit tight in Childress for now. I would love to have radar from KFDR and west TX mesonet data. TX 1km visible sat would really be nice too.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

1500Z means 10AM, verdad? I just left OUN, and see no reason to deviate from Clinton, OK.

 

[Jim Tang]

I never tallied in my vote but I would've initially picked Wichita, KS, as a location "in the middle" with good road options.

The 12Z data came in and I feel like moving north. There's a weakness/kink in the hodograph due to weak flow around 700mb, and it does not appear that there's any sort of major H7 jet streak upstream. Also with the flow at H5-H7 quite southerly in nature there might be some injection of subtropical moisture aloft... not what we need if we want to break the cap. So given these, if conditions don't appreciably change by ~0Z, storms that form might end up being anemic.

The 15Z data came in and I see upper 50's dewpoints all the way at the KS-NE border! And lapse rates are sweet! OFB from morning storms might spawn some magic, but I think I'll move up to Lincoln, NE.

EDIT: One more thing, and that is it appears a shortwave is moving across TX at 12Z. There might be some subsidence behind it, once again not good.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I'm going to make a leisurely drive down 287 to Memphis, TX. Will be there by 18z in time to grab some lunch.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Drifting down from Amarillo to Childress, TX - clearing and airmass destabilization will happen sw of the MD so a good place to locate till the next data update.

 

[Paul Townsend]

Taking the 2.25 hour drive from Woodward to Altus, OK via OK34 to OK6. Will get the 18Z update from there.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

I am heading north to Nebraska City, NE. I am really like the moisture return that is on going. Combined with the nice low-level hodographs, strong lapse rates and moderate forcing, I like going with the northern play. No Respect up here I tell ya! (Rodney Dangerfield style)

 

[Danny Neal]

I am seeing the isolated hailers to my SE as I am heading to Elk City, OK. Going to pass on those and wait for the main show. Do I go south to Vernon or west to Sayre. I was in Sayre, OK, a lot in 2009 so maybe that is a sign

 

[jaredleighton]

With the 15Z data, it looks as though a Triple point is developing in SW Kansas; however, the better moisture is still southward, in the Texas panhandle. Since I left Lawrence shortly after 12Z I can't justify an arrival to Sayre by 15Z, so I'll take a detour between Lawrence and Sayre and end up Woodward, OK. Hopefully I'll get there before the 18Z data.