CHASE CASE #2

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Man, that is some narrow moisture in OK. An aside, I don't see anything happening in NE/SD.

I'm glad I moved out and headed to Woodward, because I'm having to continue blasting north. Should be in Buffalo, OK shortly.

 

[Shane Adams]

After arriving in Vernon, I've decided to just keep heading northwest on 287. The dryline retreated as I expected, but much further and faster than I anticipated...so my afternoon will be spent rolling down the Highway To Heaven towards the dryline, somewhere near Amarillo. Will adjust as needed.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

There really is not much in this town of Liberal, KS. but me.

I have been hanging out in Liberal for the past day.

I am now seeing some TCU develop to my east by a few miles. Seeing some dry air push in from the west with 44 Dp by the CO/KS border. SW winds flowing out of AMA and the rest of NM. Dew point spreads are increasing. But more moisture has arrived in the last several hours from 55 to 63 since 15z. I am fighting the urge to drop south or move possibly east. Still going to sit here for about another hour and then make my decision by 19z, so will have to see where I end up by 21z.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Is there a way we can get the 16Z and/or 17Z visible satellite for the midwest? There seem to be a lot of subtle features that I can't quite figure out from just the one shot at 18Z.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Based off data, ended up continuing north on 287 from Dumas, instead of heading west. Expect to arrive in Stratford, TX in about 15 minutes, will adjust from there.

 

[Dean Baron]

For now I'll stay in Seiling, OK. Looks like the dryline is just pushing in to the western panhandles of OK/TX. Should be in good position as it moves ENE, but I dont want to move much farther south as it looks like the dryline drapes back off to the southwest. If anything I may move farther north.

 

[CZandbergen]

Hmm...

This is a challenging setup with the data at hand. I would really like to have 1km sat and AMA and FDR radar data, but since I don't have those, I am going to sit her in Childress awhile longer. I like the dynamics on a LBB CDS line but as others have mentioned the dry line is further west than I would like and it appears to have a bulge forming close to the triple point.

The real question I am struggling with is initiation. The visible sat image shows clearing to my north and that should result in some differential heating especially with the backed winds around 20 in this area. The moisture is good here as well so I am not ready to bolt just yet. That said I may be moving north and or west in the near future.

Hand analysis of the 18Z data can be found here: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_aFMXq0YGzsY/SxqHcUahA_I/AAAAAAAAB4M/pszBZTII6Zs/s1600-h/scan0002.jpg

 

[Bob Hartig]

The moisture axis is here in Woodward, but the low center is in southeast CO, with the dryline knocking on the door by Liberal where Kurt is. At 82/63 there, though, I'm not crazy about the wide dewpoint depression. Dewpoints will likely increase there a bit, but the Texas panhandle looks pretty inviting. Gonna hook up with Kurt in Balko, OK, with an eye on either heading south from there to Perryton, TX, and then southwest along SR 15, or else head back north without much waste of time, depending.

 

[Paul Townsend]

Going to head west and south from Altus on US62 to just south of Childress, TX, and then head southwest on FM94 to Northfield, TX.

 

[Scott Hammel]

I'm going to start drifting a little N out of Amarillo and head up to Dalhart, TX and wait for initiation. Good road options in all directions. Will continue to monitor the data and readjust as needed.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I am moving to south to Wichita.

 

[Charles Kuster]

I am going to move to Tulia, TX and should be able to get there by just after 20Z. I would not be surprised if storms develop to my north first, but I am looking for initiation SSW of Amarillo. If this occurs I should be able to move north and east with the storms throughout the evening (though the poor terrain and lack of road options in Briscoe County could complicate things).

 

[Corey Sloan]

I may regret this decision terrain wise, but I am going to head toward Canadian, TX and wait on data.....

 

[Ben Holcomb]

After lunch with Kris, I am going to head west out of Altus towards Plainview, TX although I am not sure I'll fully go that far west.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

For the sake of just getting out of Amarillo I'm going to leisurely chug down 27 to grab some lunch in Canyon, TX. Going to be at a family gathering today so this will likely be my last update. Can't think of a much better place to be sitting though. Been stuck on the Amarillo area since the first synoptic maps, but there's too many chasers in town for my taste now.