CHASE CASE #2

[David Wolfson]

Browsed the data after lunch in Plainview. No reason to move AFAICS.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I seem to always have a knack for sticking myself to far east on these cases, and seeing the dryline still back along the TX/NM border makes me think I'd be better off just a tick west. So after having lunch in Memphis TX, I'll make the hour drive over to Silverton, TX and await 20z info.

 

[Skip Talbot]

As others have noted, the dryline is way out in the west panhandle and it looks like some strong surface heating to the north to break that cap. I'm going to head down 40 and north to Pampa, TX.

 

[John Farley]

A nice storm popped right along my way near Medicine Lodge, KS, so I am watching it for a little while to see what it does. Not going to linger too long unless it looks really great, though, as I still expect the main show farther west closer to the triple point. Still expect to end up somewhere between Coldwater and Meade.

 

[Jim Cross]

Going to leave Shamrock and head to just north of Borger to Stinnett, TX.

 

[Matt Gingery]

19Z UPDATE​

LIMITED ON SATELLITE DATA ANY REGION NOT LISTED VIEW ON CONUS

VISIBLE SATELLITE

CONUS: http://i46.tinypic.com/345j4ty.jpg

MIDWEST: http://i49.tinypic.com/2gvv4m0.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/w885tg.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/2s6vue0.gif

N PLAINS: http://i46.tinypic.com/ele8ls.gif

S PLAINS: http://i48.tinypic.com/24erifm.gif

SURFACE PLOTS

CENTRAL ROCKIES: http://i47.tinypic.com/2cd74o6.gif

MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/5wbmab.gif

N PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/20k52yx.gif

S PLAINS: http://i48.tinypic.com/kajm0p.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION​

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR ERN NM / TX AND OK PANHANDLES / KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

WW MAY BE REQUIRED FROM E CNTRL NM NNEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX/
OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS.

VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD OVER WRN TX INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE HAS BEEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS FROM 25 NW CVS TO
NEAR DHT TO 35 NW LBL. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-
2000 J/KG. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRY
LINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...50 KT SWLY 500 MB FLOW FROM CENTRAL NM INTO WRN OK
COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE AREA OF
CONCERN WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS.

WAYFARING MAP: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60497

 

[Jeremy Perez]

Started moving to Claude, TX with 18Z Update after concerns over dryline not advancing. Upon 19Z update, am now proceeding straight on to Dumas, TX arriving at 3PM/21Z, Anticipate I'll want to proceed west with Dalhart in mind, but that will depend on storm development in next couple hours.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Nice T/Td betw. Pratt and Enid. What is station JWG? 77/72? Must be bad data.

Heading east, slowly, along US-64 from Buffalo. Looks like the dryline is right on top of me.

 

[CZandbergen]

Leaving Childress at 19Z and heading west on 287 then 87 to Turkey TX. Will adjust enroute as new data becomes available.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Still in Stratford at the moment...may drift a bit to the northeast in the next hour or so, but I have a fairly good feeling about where I am at. Some junk off to the east on radar, but clearing taking place just ahead of the dryline. Temps. in the 80s, and with the DL this pronounced, looks like a good possibility for focused convection within the next few hours.

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm still northwest-bound on US287......monitoring the area SW of Amarillo for initiation as I begin to plot a course around the SE side of the Amarillo metro area to avoid city traffic once I arrive.

 

[John Farley]

Watched the storms southeast of Medicine Lodge for a half hour or so before resuming westward treck. I see they still look decent on radar, but I did not want to miss the main show by hanging around watching this secondary one. Should now be able to make Coldwater by 4 p.m. and Meade, if I have to go that far, by 5:30. Wil re-check data when I get to Coldwater and decide then whether to wait or move farther west. I'm liking southwest KS for its position relative to the triple point and for the backed winds and convergent surface pattern there, but not liking the large temperature-dewpoint spread. We'll soon see what happens.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

With the dryline still near the TX/NM border I am still targeting Plainview, TX expecting to arrive shortly after 20z.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I'm on the move heading westbound on hwy 86 to Tulia, TX and should be there by 20z. Will await more data for when I arrive and decide if will proceed further west or move north.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I am heading to Dodge City, KS and will wait for more data or for the storms to fire. A certain date keeps popping up in my head but I am not sure this is that event so I will stick to southcentral KS for now.