CHASE CASE #2

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm quite positive for the clearing between Cvs and Dht: I've just arrived in Plainview,tx and I'm ready to drop west if necessary. I'm anxious to look at 21Z data.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

I've already taken the northern route...why not just keep going north. I'll be making my way to Lincoln, NE. I'll be there by the next update.

 

[Bob Hartig]

That line of TCu's in SW Kansas downgrades into a faint line of Cu cutting across the western OK/ TX pandhandles, nicely demarcating where the dryline is angling in. Convection looks primed to fire in Liberal, but Kurt and I aren't going to miss anything sitting here in Balco, OK. Couldn't hurt to get a little closer to the dryline, though. Kurt, shoot me a note if you disagree, but I don't think you'll mind if I nudge us west a notch to Guymon.

 

[Matt Gingery]

1930Z MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS​

MD #1:

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR SWRN TX / SERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
OVER SWRN TX INTO EXTREME SERN NM.

VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRY LINE AND WITHIN SELY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER SWRN TX INTO SERN NM.
DRY LINE OVER THIS REGION EXTENDS FROM CNM SWD TO MRF TO THE TX/
MEXICO BORDER. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR /SFC-6 KM AT 35 KT/ IS
SOMEWHAT LESS THAN FARTHER NORTH...A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /SBCAPE RANGING FROM 2000-3500 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES.
THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY.

MD #2:


SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL NEB / SERN SD / FAR NWRN
IA / FAR SWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB INTO SERN SD
AND EXTREME PORTIONS OF NWRN IA/SWRN MN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG THE DRY LINE IN
CENTRAL NEB AND EVENTUALLY INTO SERN SD.

VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF TCU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY
LINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM MHE TO JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF ANW. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 F. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO RETURN NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID
50S F AS FAR NORTH AS SERN SD AND EXTREME PORTIONS OF NWRN IA/SWRN
MN...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IS
RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY.

1930Z VISIBLE SATELLITE:

 

[Dean Baron]

Game on as I see a Cu field forming sw KS and the western panhandle of OK. Blasting westward towards Balko, OK which is in the panhandle of OK. That will give me an option to get north or south too.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Wasn't really liking the T/Td spreads I was seeing in Hastings until I saw the MD come out. Looks like it's time to head north on 281 in the general direction of Greeley Center, NE.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Watching Cu exploding off to the northeast. Moving out of Stratford, TX northeast on US 54. Will move to near Texhoma, OK as I watch more Cu bubbling near me along the dryline.

EDIT: Looks like I am just to the NE of a what looks like a DL bulge. Could be in business if something fires just ahead of it.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Heading east, slowly, along US-64 from Buffalo. Looks like the dryline is right on top of me.

OK, I totally misread where the dryline is/was. And it must be a problem with my methodology because all I see in the OK PH is SW surface winds.

Good thing I was driving slow, I'll bang a u-ie and head to Guymon.

 

[Scott Olson]

Heading from Childress to Amarillo, expect to be there by 4pm.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Looks like I am just to the NE of a what looks like a DL bulge. Could be in business if something fires just ahead of it.

I noticed that too. Certainly bears watching.

 

[John Farley]

Just passed through Coldwater and will continue west toward the line of TCU. Anticipate intercepting storms near Meade, or maybe a little east of there, depending on how fast the expected storms move toward me and me toward them.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

That line of TCu's in SW Kansas downgrades into a faint line of Cu cutting across the western OK/ TX pandhandles, nicely demarcating where the dryline is angling in. Convection looks primed to fire in Liberal, but Kurt and I aren't going to miss anything sitting here in Balco, OK. Couldn't hurt to get a little closer to the dryline, though. Kurt, shoot me a note if you disagree, but I don't think you'll mind if I nudge us west a notch to Guymon.

I would have to agree to move to Guymon especially after this 1930 Sat. update. Looks like a bulge almost to the WSW.

 

[David Wolfson]

I think I'll mosey out to Muleshoe, TX, to catch the incoming before 21Z. Surface obs would be nice, but I'm pretty sure the dryline is still in NM.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Currently arriving in Texhoma, OK. Will see how things develop.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I would have to agree to move to Guymon especially after this 1930 Sat. update. Looks like a bulge almost to the WSW.

Yep, I'm thinking that once we hit Guymon in a few minutes, we should catch US 54 and head southwest. I don't think we want to go as far as Stratford. Maybe tool south a bit on FM 119 and keep our eyes on the sky.