CHASE CASE #2

[Matt Gingery]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS


EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL 1000
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS TO 70 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ALONG WRN EDGE OF WW. WHILE
CLOUDINESS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HAVE TENDED TO OFFSET DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS REGION...CONTINUED HEATING LATER TODAY AND
SUSTAINED MOISTURE INFLUX/WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STORM INITIATION. PRESENCE OF SRN STREAM JET WILL MAINTAIN 50 KT
DEEP WSWLY SHEAR OVER REGION...AND MAY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT FORM
TO REMAIN SEVERE AS THEY TRACK E INTO CLOUDY BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES LATER THIS EVENING.

 

[Scott Hammel]

I'm going to stay put in Dalhart and can track NE with storms along 54. Things are looking nice!

 

[Matt Gingery]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED ​

TORNADO WATCH
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL 1000
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH OF SANDERSON TEXAS TO 55 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF HOBBS NEW MEXICO.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS / POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SE NM/FAR SW TX. HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT/SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST CHANCE FOR A
TORNADO WITH ANY MORE SUSTAINED STORMS.

 

[CZandbergen]

Holding up in Silverton, TX. Latest data puts the dry line right about on the 27 corridor to my west. Watching the cu field and waiting.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

As the position of the dry line is a little clearer, I'm heading for Earth,tx.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Hanging tough in Guymon, OK. Sexy T/Td 's in WC OK making a beeline to Alva.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'm just going to study these two bands of CU, one to my north/northwest, and one just to my south/southeast. Waiting for initiation here along Highway 281 north of Grand Island.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Hanging out with Kurt in Texhoma, OK, waiting for things to pop.

In real life, I've got to head off for a gig, so I'll be out of the loop for a few hours. Kurt, why don't you drive.

 

[Randall Cooper]

Hanging tight in Beatrice, NE until I get a look at what is happening at 21z. Ive got a good feeling about this and Im glad I moved up to SE Nebraska when I did

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I'm going to head northwest out of Plainview up to Dimmitt, TX and sit west of town to watch the TCU along the TX/NM border.

 

[Scott Olson]

I feel pretty comfortable sticking around AMA, with the winds slightly backed and higher DP's trickling in and the DL just off to the west. Certainly the cloud shield is of some concern but it's clear to the north and hopefully with some breaks it can serve to keep LCL's low but still have enough convergence along the DL to intiate storms. Around netural, with a decent dryline and moisture transport should do the trick. So I'm sticking around in Amarillo.

On a side note, kudos to Matt, I used to do these chase cases and they take so much time! Great job buddy!

 

[Matt Gingery]

21Z UPDATE

** I AM POSTING THE 21Z UPDATE A BIT EARLY. I WILL BE PUTTING TOGETHER FULL 23Z UPDATE FOR LATER. THERE WILL BE ALOT OF SUPPLEMENTAL UPDATES IN BETWEEN. THE MAP IS READY TO LIGHT UP! I WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANYONE AT ALL END UP WITH FUNNEL CAKES ON THIS EVENT. CHOOSE WISELY. . .

VISIBLE SATELLITE

CONUS: http://i46.tinypic.com/2poqpms.jpg

MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/2d993tk.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i46.tinypic.com/330xu0h.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i49.tinypic.com/1426ewy.gif

N PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/qswnrd.gif

S PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/2nhg714.gif

SURFACE PLOTS

CENTRAL ROCKIES: http://i48.tinypic.com/21oyiw6.gif

MIDWEST: http://i46.tinypic.com/imp7j4.gif

N PLAINS: http://i46.tinypic.com/1079tva.gif

S PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/rbjte8.gif

WAYFARING MAP: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60497

MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

MD:

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL NEB / SERN SD / FAR NE
IA / FAR SWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB INTO SERN SD
AND EXTREME PORTIONS OF NWRN IA/SWRN MN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG THE DRY LINE IN
CENTRAL NEB AND EVENTUALLY INTO SERN SD.

VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF TCU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY
LINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM MHE TO JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF ANW. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 F. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO RETURN NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID
50S F AS FAR NORTH AS SERN SD AND EXTREME PORTIONS OF NWRN IA/SWRN
MN...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IS
RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY.

 

[Verne Carlson]

made my way west to I-27 and now I'm going to track north to Dumas, TX where the dryline and better clearing is evident on the latest vis sat.

Edit: now I'm seeing the tower up to my northwest by Dalhart, TX - stepping on the accelerator!

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Hanging out with Kurt in Texhoma, OK, waiting for things to pop.

In real life, I've got to head off for a gig, so I'll be out of the loop for a few hours. Kurt, why don't you drive.

Bob I think I was good with staying in Guymon, oh well there not that far apart. I am liking the backing winds moving north from AMA.

Edit: Just saw the 21z come out. I see some convection right over top of Bob and I here in Texhoma, and a nice cell developing to our south near Dumas.

 

[Matt Gingery]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED ​

TORNADO WARNING!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DDC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR TREGO COUNTY KANSAS. AT 2132Z A NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND 10 MILES E OF WAKEENY KS. MOVING TO THE NE. THOSE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

TORNADO WARNING!


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DDC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR ELLIS COUNTY, KS. AT 2135Z LAW ENFORCEMENT AS WELL AS SEVERAL SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND 10 MILES NW OF HAYS, KS MOVING NE. THOSE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION:

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR S CNTRL/SE NEB...N CNTRL/NE KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH

SPEED MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET IS EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD AROUND NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST INTERACTION BETWEEN
THIS FEATURE AND STRONG POLAR JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPPER FORCING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. 30 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS
WILL IMPINGE ON EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF GRAND
ISLAND NEB...WHERE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME
FOCUSED BY 00Z. SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DAMAGING WINDS
BECOME INCREASING THREAT WITH SEVERE MCS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY AFTER 00Z.

TORNADO WATCH​

TORNADO WATCH
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL 1100
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF HASTINGS NEBRASKA TO 60 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF SPENCER IOWA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WW THROUGH THE EVENING. CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL LIKELY LIFT NNEWD OUT OF CENTRAL KS...WHILE SEPARATE AREA
DEVELOPS INVOF LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO SERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES