CHASE CASE #2

[Lanny Dean]

Chad Berryhill and I have left Magnum and are racing north on HWY 283. Target area is Arnet, I may be a little to the east but I will hold in this area and see what happens.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Holding ground at Canyon...have alot of backed sfc winds south of I-40 and DL remains west of the TX Panhandle/S.Plains area. I would expect initiation near the
TX/NM state line and then maybe things get rocking as the supercells move east
towards the I-27 corridor. No time to mess around today. Cap looks breakable.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

Arriving in Dumas, TX.

 

[CZandbergen]

Passing through Turkey TX on my way to plainview TX. Planning to setup on 27.

 

[Connor Keef]

Gonna leave Weatherford and head to Fort Supply, OK. Expect to be there in 1 1/2 hours.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I'm continuing west out of Tulia and moving towards Hereford, TX and should be there before 21z.

 

[Jim Cross]

I really like the area im in near Stinnett, TX and north along hwy 136. Think i might drift north along 136. Alot of road options along 136.

 

[Matt Gingery]

20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK​

...KS...OK AND TX...
DRY LINE EXTENDS FROM WRN KS SWD THROUGH THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE OK
AND TX PANHANDLES AND INTO ERN NM AND FAR W TX. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
IS RETURNING NWD THROUGH N TX. MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY
OVER N TX/SRN OK HAS BECOME RATHER DIFFUSE.
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE E OF DRYLINE AS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS RAPIDLY NWD ALONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH LOW
60S DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS SRN KS. AXIS OF MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 2500
J/KG EXTENDS FROM SRN/CNTRL KS SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN TX. THE
18Z SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWED A CAP IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR. HOWEVER...FURTHER HEATING AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG
THE DRYLINE. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE
DRYLINE OVER WRN KS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SWWD WITH TIME
IS EXPECTED. COMPLICATING FACTOR IS PERSISTENT STRATUS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE THROUGH SWRN OK THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ABOVE SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER.
WIND PROFILES CURRENTLY SHOW A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS. HOWEVER...MID
LEVEL JET OVER NM WILL SPREAD EWD OVER WARM SECTOR AND LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH BEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXPECTED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX...WRN
OK AND WRN/CNTRL KS AS SHEAR PROFILES IMPROVE. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EWD DURING THE EVENING...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS.

...NEB THROUGH THE MID /UPPER MS VALLEY...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD THROUGH ERN SD...AND CNTRL NEB FROM
A SURFACE LOW IN SERN ND. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NWD BUT WILL
BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS AREA THAN FARTHER S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INITIATE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM SD SWD THROUGH
CNTRL AND SWRN NEB AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER OVER SERN NEB WHERE HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT MORE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE MS
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS WITH CONTINUED
THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

 

[Danny Neal]

Blasting west out of Woodward on US 270 for the OK Panhandle. I never made it to Elk City as the TCu to my WNW baited me to stay around Woodward. Can be in Beaver, OK, within 75 minutes.

 

[Matt Gingery]

20Z UPDATE​

VISIBLE SATELLITE

CONUS: http://i46.tinypic.com/4q1j69.jpg

MIDWEST: http://i47.tinypic.com/14mqvti.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/osxyeu.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/2lkbpzb.gif

N PLAINS: http://i46.tinypic.com/ele8ls.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i48.tinypic.com/24erifm.jpg

SURFACE PLOTS

CENTRAL ROCKIES: http://i49.tinypic.com/2qb9cba.gif

MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/2s6rhqa.gif

N PLAINS: http://i46.tinypic.com/239q8n.gif

S PLAINS: http://i50.tinypic.com/2ecfzom.gif

WAYFARING MAP: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60497


21Z DATA WILL BE POSTED AROUND 7PM CDT.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Going to stay put in Texhoma for the moment. Probably my last post as I'm going to be occupied the rest of the day. Have to wait and see if I end up even close.

 

[John Farley]

Oops - messed up my timing a little on the last post - was thinking it was 3:30 when it was really only 2:30. Hence, now at 20z (3 p.m.), I am still east of Coldwater, not past it like I said in the last post, and probably at least 2 hours from Meade. Looks like a storm initiating northwest of Meade. So I will continue west and let storm trends determine my intercept strategy. Wish I were a good hour farther west now (why did I stop and look at that Medicine Lodge storm, even for a little while?), but I am still hopeful that, with me and the storms closing on one another, I will still make it in time to see something interesting.

EDIT - Shifting to real life, I will be late on the game for the next part of this case due to a commitment this evening - but will jump back in when I can.

 

[Matt Gingery]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED


TORNADO WATCH
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST OF LIBERAL KANSAS TO 60 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HILL CITY KANSAS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...WRN KS WILL COME UNDER GLANCING INFLUENCE OF APPARENT
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING CO /PER WV IMAGERY AND
PRESSURE CHANGE DATA/. THIS MAY ENHANCE REGIONAL LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH OVER REGION.
COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND SURFACE
HEATING...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Sitting tight in Candaian, TX and watching the DL and WF...will be playing the warm front today....will be watching the sky, vis sat imagery, radar imagery and surf obs to see where it sets up for my final target area...may need to slide south to Shamrock, TX in a bit....

 

[MatthewCarman]

Still in Dodge City but I will move if needed to stay east of the storms for now.