Future of the season - 2013 edition

[Brett Roberts]

I continue to keep an eye on CFS forecasts for a hint at what may happen past two weeks. Greg Carbin at SPC has put together a great page for viewing severe storm centered forecast output: http://wxvu.net/spc/cfs_scp/

The model has shown some hint of reliability in terms of getting the large-scale patterns for outbreaks when they're within 10 days or so. Although the forecasts are usually just noise past that, if the latest 10 or so days worth of forecasts verifies, it's going to be a very disappointing May for most. With that said, the CFS probably will not show any signal for local events (like OK last Friday). But that is probably what much of the peak of the season is going to be like - needle-in-a-haystack type days. I only hope that the late arrival of springlike temps and the late departure of snowpack in the north will help keep the jet stream from jumping way north into the far northern US or Canada until later in the season. We shall see, however.

I'd be interested to see some type of objective verification, as well as subjective impressions from those who have followed it very closely (likely SPC forecasters). I've followed it on-and-off, and so far, I'm skeptical of its value added. My impression, like yours, has been that it only becomes at all useful inside the 10-14 day range. Yet, by that time, it's often just as easy to look for trends and patterns on the GFS or ECMWF and their ensembles. For example, it appears the CFS began showing the April 17 threat consistently about 10 days out; meanwhile, the operational GFS indicated an impressive western trough with good moisture return from at least 12-14 days in advance. If we start seeing even mildly reliable signals for significant events with 15-30 day lead time, beyond the range of the current global forecast models, then I'll really start paying attention.

The fact that it looks so dead for May on so many consecutive runs is disconcerting, but being that this is its first year and it's such an abstract statistical tool, I'm not sure we're quite "calibrated" to its output yet. Is it possible it would have looked just as bleak on this date in 2010 or 2011? Who knows. Probably not, but it's easier to stay sane by using that reasoning while we still can!

 

[JamesCaruso]

@Jeff Hawkins - My situation is very similar; I am scheduled to head out May 13 but will push it back if things don't look good. I have a max of 2 weeks, and I must be back home by 5/31, so 5/17 is the latest I can head out and still take advantage of a full 2 weeks. I would rather go out earlier than later though, because if things looked REALLY good on the back end I could always justify squeezing in an extra day or two beyond 2 weeks, as long as I am back by 5/31.

In my first few years on the Plains I used to be into sightseeing on the off days. Now I am more inclined to just get some work done from my hotel room. The nature of my professional responsibilities makes it impractical to be totally out of it for two full weeks, so I try to find ways to catch up when I can. In fact, I tend to approach the whole trip not so much as a normal vacation but as "working a reduced schedule from a remote location so that I can chase storms when applicable." I prefer to be near larger cities (OKC, ICT, DEN, etc.) on down days so that I can find some good restaurants at night, maybe hear some live music, perhaps find a good gym to work out at, etc. I have some smaller towns that are particular favorites because of good restaurants or unique character to the area, for example Valentine, Nebraska, Limon, Colorado, and Garden City, Kansas.

If things look totally dead near the end of a trip, I normally just head home a little early, maybe after 10 days instead of the full two weeks. Just too much going on with work and family to justify staying out there with no realistic expectation of good storms. Doesn't have to be tornadoes, but do need supercells; garden variety storms are picturesque and enjoyable the first week, but not enough to keep me out beyond 10 days.



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[Paul Knightley]

Having flown across to the USA each May for a number of years I've become rather more pragmatic about the whole thing. There's little point in worrying about it as it'll change nothing! Of course I want to see storms, and I'll try my best to find them. There's never been a year with no storms, and even fairly weak storms are usually strong by UK standards!

There's so much to see and do, and this is our holiday! The alternative to being out on the Plains, or in the Rockies, or wherever, is commuting into London on a packed train!

 

[Stan Rose]

I'm not worried about a super lousy pattern--if it's going to be super lousy, just please be super lousy so i can use my time off productively, like go to Hawaii and drink margaritas...what worries me is that if it is marginal--then im forced into the dreadful position of deciding whether chasing marginal storms is worth all that gas and long hours, which are not as enjoyable for me as they were 15 years ago. Hawaii...marginal storms...Hawaii...marginal storms--it's a tough decision! So if it's gonna block, block and be done with it!

 

[Marcus Diaz]

I for one welcome the block. I still don't have my Chase rig setup and running. Plus I have a few days off in July. Might make a trip up north by then. So bring on the death ridge!

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'd be interested to see some type of objective verification, as well as subjective impressions from those who have followed it very closely (likely SPC forecasters). I've followed it on-and-off, and so far, I'm skeptical of its value added. My impression, like yours, has been that it only becomes at all useful inside the 10-14 day range. Yet, by that time, it's often just as easy to look for trends and patterns on the GFS or ECMWF and their ensembles. For example, it appears the CFS began showing the April 17 threat consistently about 10 days out; meanwhile, the operational GFS indicated an impressive western trough with good moisture return from at least 12-14 days in advance. If we start seeing even mildly reliable signals for significant events with 15-30 day lead time, beyond the range of the current global forecast models, then I'll really start paying attention.

The fact that it looks so dead for May on so many consecutive runs is disconcerting, but being that this is its first year and it's such an abstract statistical tool, I'm not sure we're quite "calibrated" to its output yet. Is it possible it would have looked just as bleak on this date in 2010 or 2011? Who knows. Probably not, but it's easier to stay sane by using that reasoning while we still can!

You have to keep your frame of reference in mind. The CFS products are keyed ONLY on SCP. Since SCP is a function of CAPE and shear, and each of those is a function of "fundamental" meteorological fields, then the CFS really isn't always saying the same thing as the GFS. It would help if GFS forecast products also included the daily max SCP and convective precip as the CFS graphics do. The current running joke is how a 24-day forecast from the CFS "nailed" the April 17th severe weather event (check the forecast for 4/17 initialized 3/25...it will only be there for another few days). Harold Brooks is having his FEDA class (which I'm taking) do some basic investigation into the CFS to get some idea of its tendencies.

 

[Matt Hunt]

Grad school is the best time to chase! I have my research assistantship but I am allowed to take off here and there when I want since I can do my research remotely. I'm just playing though, I know everyone's situation isn't the same.

That would be nice, but yeah I think my situation is different! I'm not going to grad school for meteorology or research of any kind, but for physician assistant studies. It's pretty much full-time in terms of class, plus studying on evenings and weekends. Plus I'll be in eastern Tennessee! On the plus side, most PA jobs start with 3-4 weeks of vacation, so I'll be able to chase a lot more when I'm finished.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

CPC just issued their updated forecast today for May, with some interesting changes from the previous May outlook. Rather than above normal temps in the central and southern Plains, they are now calling for a continuation of what we've been seeing in Apr - ie cool wx, and this unfortunately extends down to the GOM. And the warm wx they continue to forecast in the west is not exactly consistent with the troughiness we like to see.

On the bright side, precip over the Plains is expected to be at least normal, so no major drought in sight. Also, the discussion suggests that some of the forecasted cool temps are really an issue for the first 10 days of May. So maybe there's more hope towards the end of the month?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

 

[Andrew de la Garza]

So we're headed from "The Year Without a Spring" to "The Summer of See Text?"

At least I brought the right avatar...

 

[Skip Talbot]

I see lots of folks here and on Facebook looking at week 2 on the GFS (as if it's worth anything) and despairing, but I think you just need to look a little harder. A ridge over the central plains, sure, but I see some light southwesterlies over the southwest and higher elevations. Week 2 on the GFS floods the southern plains with moisture. A little breath from the southern jet, easterly surface winds with 55-60F Td's across the Caprock and you've got a nice supercell chase. Seems like everyone else is waiting for that deep, 100 knot trough and 980 low ejecting over OKC. You can keep your 50 mph storms with 800 chasers on them. I think I'd rather spend a few laid back days chasing some slow moving, isolated dryline magic through a lonely corner of the high plains.

 

[joel ewing]

Over the years I've morphed into a dedicated June chaser, and as my wife....the "Lucky Mrs. Ewing" will tell you...I'm a much more pleasant husband to be around now. Less crowds....northern targets....greener landscapes and often new scenery....that's all part of the June chase scene. Don't get despondent, folks. It seems like we've been doing this same dance for several years in a row now about this time, and there are ALWAYS storms and tornadoes that are forthcoming. Worse comes to worse....just drop your anchor in Limon and play the upslope every day. You'll eventually score. And...there's nothing like hanging out close to the Rocky Mountains and all they offer. What more could a chaser ask for? "May-schmayyyyy" June is where it's at!

 

[Derek Weston]

I see lots of folks here and on Facebook looking at week 2 on the GFS (as if it's worth anything) and despairing, but I think you just need to look a little harder. A ridge over the central plains, sure, but I see some light southwesterlies over the southwest and higher elevations. Week 2 on the GFS floods the southern plains with moisture. A little breath from the southern jet, easterly surface winds with 55-60F Td's across the Caprock and you've got a nice supercell chase. Seems like everyone else is waiting for that deep, 100 knot trough and 980 low ejecting over OKC. You can keep your 50 mph storms with 800 chasers on them. I think I'd rather spend a few laid back days chasing some slow moving, isolated dryline magic through a lonely corner of the high plains.

Right. People forget that some of the most memorable storms -- really, the storms that thread together the story of a given season -- are from marginal looking setups. The problem is that when you're desperate for pattern change you don't look for the subtle opportunities. You look for, as you said, the 100 knot troughs and 980 lows we all so love. You forget that a day like Campo would never be noticed until a few days beforehand.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

...You forget that a day like Campo would never be noticed until a few days beforehand.

A lot of people - like me (and Vortex) - didn't notice Campo until *after* it happened!

 

[Adam Adkins]

I pretty much only chase June. I am in school at Colorado State until the end of May, and then I've got the very end of May through June to chase the Colorado plains and it is always consistent and rewarding. Then in July I head up to climb some peaks, but if there is a chase day I can still go. Don't worry about this season! You've still got the high plains in June! Although right now in Fort Collins it is a blizzard...

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Tail end of the 00z GFS forecast period has a nice pattern change. Again, not nitpicking details at this range, just nice to see something resembling southwest flow in the central US. Lends some hope that the entirety of May won't be restricted to occasional, subtle/marginal chase days.