Future of the season - 2013 edition

[Dan Robinson]

Instead of the later, colder patterns resulting in good shear/instability combos, their effect seems to instead be sending scouring cold fronts through the Gulf with the passage of each wave. Looks like we may just need a 1 or 2 week break from the waves coming through to let the Gulf recover from the assault of cold fronts.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Yea, this season reminds me of a similar one back in the late 1990's. A series of strong fronts continued to disrupt Gulf flow right into May. Originally, the GFS showed limited disruption with the current system, but now it's likely to be a colder and stronger front, thus keeping things in check until after next weekend.

W.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Looking at the long-range of the GFS makes my stomach turn, and brings to mind a Sex Pistols lyric
"No future, no-o future, no future for YOU!"

Massive re-expansion of that pesky SE Canada trough which has never really gone away. Hot, dry air killed 2012 after April 15. Will cold air intrusions kill 2013 until May 15 and possibly beyond? Time will tell.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Well, the good news is that the GFS now shows a strong return flow and the beginnings of a western trough at the end of its forecast period. After watching these last couple troughs since they first appeared on it, I've noticed it is fairly accurate with these large-scale synoptic features. The timing may be off by 2-3 days at this range, and of course the details of whether conditions will be favorable for a significant, chaseable tornado event can be difficult if not impossible to nail down even the day of the event as we saw yesterday. Still, the general presence and placement of troughs/ridges seems to pan out at least somewhat resembling the model forecast within that +/- 2-3 day range.

*Chances are even better if these features appear on several runs in a row. Let the waiting and watching commence...or continue...

 

[brentford]

I have never witnessed so many strong fronts roaring thru North Texas this late in the year. It scours out the moisture in a hurry. Another strong front is pegged to come thru here Tuesday. Absolutely sick of it to be honest.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

Well, the good news is that the GFS now shows a strong return flow and the beginnings of a western trough at the end of its forecast period. After watching these last couple troughs since they first appeared on it, I've noticed it is fairly accurate with these large-scale synoptic features. The timing may be off by 2-3 days at this range, and of course the details of whether conditions will be favorable for a significant, chaseable tornado event can be difficult if not impossible to nail down even the day of the event as we saw yesterday. Still, the general presence and placement of troughs/ridges seems to pan out at least somewhat resembling the model forecast within that +/- 2-3 day range.

*Chances are even better if these features appear on several runs in a row. Let the waiting and watching commence...or continue...

I was looking at the gfs on twisterdata and saw those same shifts towards the first of May, however I wont rely on the gfs until the nam verifies 3-4 days out. Im hoping things start looking good by May 1st because I am ready for some chasing. I will finish my classes and finals on the 30th and be ready to hit the road on the 1st.

 

[MGalloway]

I have never witnessed so many strong fronts roaring thru North Texas this late in the year. It scours out the moisture in a hurry. Another strong front is pegged to come thru here Tuesday. Absolutely sick of it to be honest.

...and in this region (Upper Midwest), I can't remember an April where we've had this many winter storms. Another one is supposed to come through tonight and dump another 4-8 inches (with possible thundersnow). Further north, Duluth just set a record for the snowiest April ever. Temps have been around 15 to 20 degrees below normal for quite a while now...although that looks to change at the end of the week. I'm not sure what bearing that will have on the rest of the season.

I checked through the April snowstorm records for this area, and 1980 and 1983 had a fair amount of April snow, too...but that may not mean much. I do remember '80 and '83 being pretty stormy in the spring/summer, however, for what it's worth.

 

[Derek Weston]

last monthly run of ecmwf showed some troughy goodness from around may 6-13ish

All subject to change, naturally.

I believe it was 2004 that had a very quite April and first part of May before going bonkers. I could deal with that.

 

[Mike Smith]

A couple of thoughts: The snow cover in isn't going away immediately and, even once it is gone, there will be wet ground that will make southern Canada and the far northern U.S. tending cooler than normal over the next 30 days or so.

Believe it or not (I just checked) water temperatures are normal in the west Gulf and warmer than normal in the east Gulf. At some point, this potential extreme (for May) temperature gradient is going set off a huge day or a huge period (think May, 2003) of above normal tornado activity.

I expect there are plenty of tornadoes yet to occur this year. It is just Mother Nature is 30 days behind with temperatures.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

The problem so far is the NW flow not allowing the real good DP 65 and 1" PW to stay in the plains more than day or two before being pushed back into the SE/US or GOM.

The long range CVS model has the basic pattern not changing over the next 45 days NW flow with a SW flow event once a week at best.

The 2013 season is mirror of the 2005 season with record lows across SP and NW flow into May.



Then late May into June tornado days jumped to decent levels.



I have forecasted that 2013 will go down as a record low year for tornados close to 2005 numbers.

The one caveat is the above average Hurricane hits in SE/US this year based on the number of Hurricanes and high chances of US hits this year again 2005 analog.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2005atlan.shtml

Couple of them could produce some high tornado numbers as they make landfall in SE/US.

 

[Eddie Natenberg]

Jeff, do you have any links to the long range model you are using?

FYI, Also I don't think 2005 had the record midwest cold we saw so far this season. But 2008 and 2011 did.

Thanks,
Eddie

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Eddie,

It's a paid site Weatherbell.com

Also wxcaster link: http://wxcaster.com/cfsv2_charts.htm

 

[Tim Carley]

The 12z GFS is now showing a fairly quick return after next weeks event. Not at all in line with the last few days runs. We'll have to wait for another run to see if this may be trending, but its enough to give me some hope.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I can't remember the last time I saw the GFS so twisted about RH return. One run it's 3k capes over OK and the next day the Gulf is dry as a bone. I suspect this might be the trouble it sometimes has during the winter / spring transition. This could be a warning to chase hard when the opportunities arise -- anywhere.

W.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Looking into next week's possible event makes me cringe. Decent GOM return but piss poor upper level support. I too feel as though this might be another dismal year for chasing, and to take each "shot" that may come our way.