2024-04-15 EVENT: NE/KS/OK

[Jesse Risley]

Is there going to be live thread for this event to switch to? Might be a good one to practice on.

Yes, @Jeff Duda and I will have a nowcasting event this evening on Zoom. This will be a pilot program to discuss this evening's severe weather event. We will begin at 4 PM MT/5 PM CT/ 6 PM ET. There will be a discussion of the synoptic and mesoscale features of the event, targets, etc. Everyone is welcome to join.

https://zoom.us/j/97977022252

 

[Warren Faidley]

Thanks, I was referring to a live "NOW" thread in ST like we use to do.

 

[Tom Dulong]

The RAP is zeroing in on that area near Childress as well, then exploding the state line area up US83.

Gotta love the satellite feed being down. From COD:

Sat feed back up from COD as of 17:30 UTC

 

[Jamie H]

Thanks, I was referring to a live "NOW" thread in ST like we use to do.

This could also be useful for learning for those of us who lack practical experience.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The environment down along I-20 looks excellent. If a storm goes down there, it will be good. The cap is shown killing it after a couple of hours though. I can't make it down there in time anyway, and going down there is going to make getting back for Tuesday difficult.

It looks like the dryline in Kansas might stay west of the cloud deck. The OUN sounding shows better moisture depth upstream, and that's on the move northbound. Definitely better looking than last night, though it does appear the show will be entirely after dark.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I suggest we just go ahead and make this a NOW thread?

SPC just issued a MSD for the Childress area south, quite a ways. At some distance south, I'm assuming you start losing favorable upper level shear.

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

I still think a couple supercells are going to blow up in SW KS and some of the CAMs are hinting at it as well. As referenced before the models last time I checked (outside working right now) showed a good environment in the SW KS region. For better or worse I had picked Great Bend, but couldn't make it happen today although if I left now I could still be in position before convection initiates.

 

[John Farley]

Is there going to be live thread for this event to switch to? Might be a good one to practice on.

See Jeff's post at the end of this thread:

ANNOUNCING: live storm chasing commentary (2024)

The next major feature implementation by the Stormtrack staff is live storm chasing commentary. We are aware that there is already a market owner on this, Ryan Hall. What we are proposing is a similar activity - a handful of Stormtrack folks performing live coverage of severe weather events...

stormtrack.org

 

[JamesCaruso]

The environment down along I-20 looks excellent. If a storm goes down there, it will be good. The cap is shown killing it after a couple of hours though. I can't make it down there in time anyway, and going down there is going to make getting back for Tuesday difficult.

It looks like the dryline in Kansas might stay west of the cloud deck. The OUN sounding shows better moisture depth upstream, and that's on the move northbound. Definitely better looking than last night, though it does appear the show will be entirely after dark.

Sweetwater has a less-than-optimal T/Td depression though... Towards Abilene is much better, but east of there the road network and terrain are tough to navigate... I dislike that whole area southeast of Rotan...

Not much convergence on the SW KS portion of the dryline - I think the models handled that fairly well. Maybe a better shot when the dryline retreats later...

CDS looks like a great spot right now as Warren has been saying, but it's still cloud-covered...

NAM3km much more aggressive w/ convection than HRRR, which only has an impressive cell further south in TX.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Cell(s) exploding down near Big Spring. It will be very interesting to see if they rotate and what happens as they move NE. The game is afoot.

 

[Levi Mol]

Todays the day!!

 

[JamesCaruso]

Cell(s) exploding down near Big Spring. It will be very interesting to see if they rotate and what happens as they move NE. The game is afoot.

Looks like they’ve run into some cap suppression ?

 

[Warren Faidley]

Still 3 hours of shooting light, so the chase is still on. The sig. torn. parameters are nuts if something goes up, but the cloud cover is a problem. Maybe a retreating DL or a wave will set things off. There are cells trying to go up within the sig-tor outlook!

 

[Robert Rohloff]

Pretty good hail on the storm near Swenson TX with some rotation showing up now. Maybe we finally have something.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Here we go!

 

[JamesCaruso]

Interesting that an SPC meso discussion (#443) came out for NEB 4 hours ago, with a 95% probability of watch issuance. But a watch never materialized.

 

[Mike Smith]

About 15 minutes ago, a huge TCU floated northwest across ICT.

SPC has meso'd western Kansas: Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 448

 

[Mike Smith]

New Tornado Watch till 3a.

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

Looks like they starting to go south of Garden City, KS

 

[Warren Faidley]

All's well that ends well.... so far. SVR storm passed within 29 miles of my original forecast in KCDS, so I'm OK with that. Don't think CAPE was sufficient enough to take advantage of / overcome sheer. Hard to guess what will occur later tonight and tomorrow, but danger still exists for nighttime tornadic storms. Congratulations to everyone who made the decision to stay put today.

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

Storm approaching Dodge City is all by itself.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Timing on this storm is not good for DDC, hope it waits until it's north of the city to go tornadic.

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

Timing on this storm is not good for DDC, hope it waits until it's north of the city to go tornadic.

Watching a chaser and he just said the structure is amazing. Living vicariously through others tonight.

 

[John Farley]

As of 10:45 p.m. Central time, there has not been one tornado warning anywhere in the US. There certainly could be tornadoes, maybe even strong ones, overnight, but from a storm chasing standpoint, this day has been a bust tornado-wise. Glad to hear some are seeing good structure, nonetheless.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I broke off of the DDC storm east of Jetmore. Didn't see anything interesting with it from the south/southeast. Dryline squall line to the west looks like it is trying to spin things up in several places, but I need time to sleep and get east for tomorrow.