Future of the season - 2013 edition

[Matt Hunt]

Looking into next week's possible event makes me cringe. Decent GOM return but piss poor upper level support. I too feel as though this might be another dismal year for chasing, and to take each "shot" that may come our way.

I assume you're talking about Tuesday? I've been watching that one. One plus is that recent runs have brought the surface low further north. If it could just do that a little more, and have that 500 mb trough dig a little more, we might be there. I have next week off to chase, and this one is looking like my only shot! Ugh! Come on Mother Nature!

 

[Andy Wehrle]

...annnnnnd now we have the dreaded eastern Omega block coming down the pipe as we head into May. These pesky buggers can stick around for three weeks. Hope y'all brought your sightseeing guides.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I've been thinking exactly the same thing. Just speculation, but it makes sense to me that when this season finally pops, we could see setups with strong instability in tandem with robust shear. Once April insolation finally flexes its muscles beneath March-like cold upper levels, we could have some wicked scenarios.

I hereby tender my resignation as a weather prophet and am getting set to head down the sidewalk ranting and kicking small dogs.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Originally posted May 13, 2010:

Would people consider the season "over"? As in are we on the downhill of strong storms? Its been sorta "quite" and I'm starting to think that this year will be like last, quite and not much going on,

Good times. If we haven't scored a few photogenic tubes by the end of June, then you guys can come back and say how lame the season was.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Amen. What this season really is, at the moment, is a fine example of how useless it is to speculate and of how inevitably we do so anyway. Some sociologist could have the makings of a sweet study with this thread. But realistically, this season ain't over till it's over, and that is when the mid-levels heat up to summer temperatures and the polar jet retreats north for good. Whatever else the long-range models may show and however much they may morph--because they are just long-range models--that kind of change isn't in the cards right now. And you can remind me that I said this when I start whining like a baby.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

I agree with Skip, wait till June or July before saying it's been a bad year...

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Well, he posted that May 13th, after the epic May 10th outbreak in Oklahoma and six days prior to the May 19th high risk which is more remembered for its chaser clusterf**k than its photogenic tornadoes, but still did produce, and the Bowdle event three days after that. 2013 has not had anything like that take place thus far, and I doubt the models looked this bleak at that point in 2010.

 

[Brett Roberts]

Well, he posted that May 13th, after the epic May 10th outbreak in Oklahoma and six days prior to the May 19th high risk which is more remembered for its chaser clusterf**k than its photogenic tornadoes, but still did produce, and the Bowdle event three days after that. 2013 has not had anything like that take place thus far, and I doubt the models looked this bleak at that point in 2010.

I have to agree. It is true that predictability beyond 10-14 days is almost futile, and also true that the heart of the Plains season is still 20-40 days out. In fact, as 2004 and 2010 illustrated, the possibility of a banner season remains even when not much significant has happened by early May.

With that said, I don't like the pattern of crashing cold fronts and east coast troughing that has persisted for a couple months now. I also don't like seeing such a muddled, blocky pattern at 500 mb, or the jet stream retreating into Canada this early for any length of time (as shown on some recent long-range models). It's technically true that the season could still recover very nicely starting 2-3 weeks from now, but as you said, I don't think it looked this bad in late April 2010. Between the model guidance and a long-term Plains drought that refuses to die, let's just say I'd be delighted beyond words if we somehow pull out a season comparable to 2010.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I am scheduled to start my 2-week Plains chasecation on May 13, although I have some flexibility to delay a few days if necessary and still get 2 weeks - as long as I am back by 5/31. So I am still hopeful that things will pop right around then... Even if it is a weak season with no epic or particularly memorable events, there WILL be supercells on the Plains in May!

 

[Warren Faidley]

I like to call this "Chasers Tax." This is the price we all have to pay Mother Nature every few years when storms take a vacation at our expense. I remember in the old days (think Fred Flintstone peddling his stone car), forecasting was much less accurate than it is today. A chaser who did not live in the area would have to basically set-up in Tornado Alley and wait it out -- long before Starbucks, laptops and Holiday Inn Express.

Even if May sucks, there is always eastern Colorado and Nebraska in June.

W.

 

[Tom Dulong]

Even if May sucks, there is always eastern Colorado and Nebraska in June.

W.

Indeed, Palmer Divide magic usually brings a few pleasant surprises for high plains chasers late May through mid June.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Well, he posted that May 13th, after the epic May 10th outbreak in Oklahoma and six days prior to the May 19th high risk which is more remembered for its chaser clusterf**k than its photogenic tornadoes, but still did produce, and the Bowdle event three days after that.

Don't forget the April 22 TX panhandle/SE Colorado tornado-fest. Plus late May bloomed into a great chase season even down here (look at my avatar).

I thought 2011 was going to be the worst year ever in the history of chasing on the Plains...then came November 7.

 

[chrisbray]

Originally posted May 13, 2010:



Good times. If we haven't scored a few photogenic tubes by the end of June, then you guys can come back and say how lame the season was.

And being in Illinois Skip, surely you remember this: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/?n=magnoliatornado
June 5 2010!

I'm holding out hope, especially here in Illinois where early June seems to be our best time...

 

[Skip Talbot]

I do remember that day, unfortunately. I targeted Iowa. At least I was in good company as V2 and many other chasers targeted the west end of that setup.

Illinois' tornado season peaks in April, with the warm fronts being the big producers. I'm hoping it's just delayed this year due to the cool start to spring, and we'll still get a few good warm front plays before summer sets in. Our severe weather season remains active through May and June too before we transition into the summer derecho mode.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

I pity the people who spent thousands of dollars to fly over from Europe, Australia and Asia to go chase this year. I can only imagine the level of disappointment they must have. In fact, I compare it my disappointment of spending 13 days chasing in 2011, and traversing 5,500 miles, to see one lousy tornado....which to date, is the only one I have ever seen and we had to run it from! Didn't even get to enjoy it and photograph it and video it.