Future of the season - 2013 edition

[JamesCaruso]

I am heading home today after a two-week chase vacation. I am glad I was able to push it back a week to take advantage of a great pattern. While we were unsuccessful for a variety of reasons (see my "Epic Fail / Chase Wall of Shame" post), I certainly cannot complain about lack of opportunities. This has to have been the most number of bonafide chase days I ever had in any two-week chase vacation going back to 1996 when I started.

Just goes to show that the early part of the season has nothing at all to do with the latter part... All of our hand-wringing about the inactive April and first half of May was for nothing. Similarly, there have been years with lots of early activity that made me worry the peak had already come and gone before I arrived on the Plains... None of it matters.

Still, I know we will all be back on here discussing the same thing in 2014 - just like we can't resist speculating on the prospects and outcomes of the season for our favorite sports and sports teams...

Jim

 

[chrisbray]

Crazy....looking back on this, I don't think anyone pictured the last two weeks of may turning into arguably the most unforgettable storm season in recent memory

 

[Brian]

actually kinda thinking that the storm season may last a little longer this year since it got such a late start. if it does that's fine with me, if not this has been a season to remember. hoping for a few more awesome set ups though and get more great tornado videos! Never Stop Chasing!! but be safe!

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Well, the GFS forecast of a monster ridge across the S. Plains (not that they'd mind it anymore) was a couple weeks premature, but it is once again forecasting just such a development. However, it is also depicting bouts of fairly stout northwest flow aloft over rich moisture at the surface across the N plains into the upper Midwest starting this week and continuing through much of June. If this verifies, it could lead to an active derecho season, with a few surprise tornado events thrown in where mesoscale conditions are favorable before storms congeal into an MCS.

MKX CWA is rapidly approaching two full calendar years since they've last issued a tornado warning. That might be fairly common for an office in Maine or west of the Rockies, but for the Midwest...not so much.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Crazy....looking back on this, I don't think anyone pictured the last two weeks of may turning into arguably the most unforgettable storm season in recent memory

The events that spawned these tornadoes weren't exactly strong synoptic scale setups, as they weren't exactly widespread tornado outbreaks. The longer range models will not pick up on such setups, so it is difficult to see things like this coming more than a few days out. The CFS is proof of exactly this, as it only began to show the May 19/20 setups starting about 5 days out, whereas back in the winter it was showing setups like the one that resulted in the Hattiesburg, MS tornado 10-12 days out.

 

[David Mikulec]

Wouldn't mind seeing some photogenic t-storms in KS and OK come late July.

 

[chrisbray]

I'm keeping an eye on a possible two fold event tuesday night through Wednesday night across northern Illinois. Would be linear in nature, but that won't stop me from trying to get some lightning pictures

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

I hope this season lasts longer, 3 weeks was not near enough, and that's about all there really was. Need moar storms!

 

[Brian]

northern Illinois is looking very interesting for Tuesday night into Wednesday, looks like a linear event but it will be awesome to have something close to home for a change