Future of the season - 2013 edition

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And this is what is right! Here is the exact same day, in 2008, just for memory sake!

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Heading out from NH for the drive west to the Great Plains. My focus this year, the dryline Tx up to SD. I grew up in west Texas and know that dryline can really go without much help with the right spark. Later in the week looks decent based on all the models with a trough moving into the Pacific coast. Like most my schedule is pretty set in stone with lots of obligations at home by late May. All in all we're looking for a few nice setups the next 14 days. It's our family vacation for the past 15 years! Wife loves it. I'm a lucky guy. Happy Mother's Day to all the mom's out there.
 
For those people looking to chase soon, the GFS breaks some good precip for late next week. I even took the liberty to outline said precip for everyone to see.


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There is a hint of a typical dryline situation developing over W-TX for multiple days sometime after mid-week going into the weekend. If we can get some decent outflow boundaries to interact with the storms, it might get interesting.

W.
 
More than just west TX. 00z data paints potential in SD/NE/KS/OK and TX over the weekend. The 00z GFS looks so much better and it has been slowly improving run by run... ECMWF and GGEM also very promising and have been for multiple runs.
 
Yes, it looks like late this week and into the weekend, we may FINALLY get a good setup with very good moisture in place. This will likely be a must go situation for me. I am starting to put together plans for a 3 or 4 day trip to the plains, beginning Friday. If the setup the GFS is depicting comes even close to verifying, I suspect there will be at least one big tornado day and perhaps more, with Saturday possibly the marquee day. With the better part of week to go, lots can change, but at least there is good reason for optimism, at least for now.

First big chase day of the year occurring on the weekend means massive chaser hordes.

Chuck
 
Yes, it looks like late this week and into the weekend, we may FINALLY get a good setup with very good moisture in place. This will likely be a must go situation for me. I am starting to put together plans for a 3 or 4 day trip to the plains, beginning Friday. If the setup the GFS is depicting comes even close to verifying, I suspect there will be at least one big tornado day and perhaps more, with Saturday possibly the marquee day. With the better part of week to go, lots can change, but at least there is good reason for optimism, at least for now.

First big chase day of the year occurring on the weekend means massive chaser hordes.

Chuck

Sounds perfect! I will get into denver thursday night after a cross country move. Unpack the car, get an oil change and pack my chaser gear and be ready to go this weekend. I CANT wait
 
GFS continues positive trend. As of current runs... shows Saturday possibly being an outbreak scenario in vicinity of i35 in Kansas and points northeastward. Sun perhaps if things slow down a bit, looking linear. Fri looks iffy, day before the day, and a definite northern play if you're to avoid a cap-bust.

So much can change, of course... but... positive trends are positive trends, and we sure as heck could use some of those.
 
I'm personally loving the SD play on Friday. Believable CAPE values, low LCL values, and easily breakable cap that should keep early junk convection out of the way. The wind profile is spotless and directional shear is nice via the hodos. The upper level winds aren't spectacular but when you have that kind of instability and directional shear, that's a fairly minor deal.
 
Don't know if anyone is planning on chasing anymore after this weekend...but looking at long range GFS, seems like there is a bit of southwest flow next week but by next weekend it shifts to a zonal mode with some impulses going through the Upper Great Lakes / Mississippi Valley in early June.
 
Well, 2013 finally got an active period, and unfortunately a lot of Oklahomans paid the price. But the beat goes on...

GFS did about as well as it can at the long range with the last system, showing a favorable large-scale setup for severe weather in the Plains on the 384-hour forecast valid for 00z 5/17 (7 PM CT 5/16, or only one day off from the initial N Texas outbreak). It flopped around a lot at that timeframe for the weekend system, and wasn't screaming "multiple violent tornadoes in central Oklahoma," but that's to be expected.

One thing that's surprising to me is that we are still dealing with an expanded Hudson Bay/polar vortex in southeast Canada. Until this last week, I didn't think significant severe weather events in the central CONUS were possible in such a regime (thinking 2006 and 2009). Never say never when it comes to the weather!

That said, the GFS continues to depict fairly stout ridging across the southern plains for late May into early June. This prevents the next trough from really digging in, but rides it across the top of the ridge which may provide some decent chase opportunities in the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Just what the doctor ordered for early June and some chasers looking to see supercells and tornadoes in sparsely populated areas. Watching and waiting.
 
Looks like a decent trough will push out through the mid mo valley/great lakes May 30-31. I'mgoing to bet big things happen in Illinois on May 31, because I will be with my wife on our 5 year anniversary. I missed the June 7, 2008 tornados southwest of Chicagoland because I was on my honeymoon ;)
 
While chase-cationers hopefully get to enjoy a Memorial Day weekend of isolated, photogenic, slow-moving supercells on the Northern Plains of Montana and the Dakotas, it is looking more and more likely that the large-scale ingredients for widespread and potentially significant severe weather will once again be present across the Plains and Midwest sometime in the Tuesday-Friday timeframe of next week.
 
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