Shane Adams
Of course, transplants are excluded from that post. If you take vacations to chase, all bets are off and you get what you get.
Future of the season - 2013 edition
- Thread starter Dan Robinson
- Start date
samuel stone
EF3
0z gfs shows a pattern that could bring some chaseable opportunities to the plains after the first week of may. they arent high amplitude synoptic nascar troughs so the gfs is likely just now starting to be able sort them out. seeeee guyssss just because you dont see a world war I trench in the 500 mb flow 20 days out doesnt mean the seasons over. geeeesh oh and if this turns into nothing at all... i still bet there will be a tornado sometime. maybe.
Hannah.Taylor
EF4
Well regardless, this is Eastern Colorado... today.
I know that all too well. I got stuck in it for an hour on I-70 yesterday traveling from Kansas City to Denver on the 2nd leg of my trip (Nashville to Kansas City was the first leg).
There were cars in the ditch everywhere, people were just driving without any caution whatsoever, my travel partner Ellie and I could only shake our heads at the ignorance. We however, made it just fine without any issues. 35-40 mph on All Season tires with excellent tread, and proceeding with caution was all it took for us to escape a wintry blast on the Plains.
Once we got to Russell, KS, the sun came out and the closer we got to Denver, the warmer it got!
Our travels! (west of topeka, but east of Junction City and Salina).
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Surface trajectories along the Texas, GOM have turned north in the last few hours. (Not that I have been checking every hour).
I have a gut feeling this is the beginning of the season.
W.
I have a gut feeling this is the beginning of the season.
W.
Unfortunately, at the same time, the recent front that is giving the central US another very cold surge has also almost completely scoured out the Gulf. This one buoy in the southern Gulf (near the northern extent of the Bay of Campeche) is only showing upper 50s Tds right now (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055). Not bad, but the RAP analyses I see right now also continue to show a northerly wind component to the surface flow over all but the far western Gulf. In fact, it looks like the 60 degree isodrosotherm is still being shunted to the south by NEly flow in the southern/central Gulf. Looking farther southeast into the NW Caribbean Sea (as far southeast as Jamaica), while moisture is richer, the winds are also out of the northwest there as well.
FIM/GFS/ECMWF forecasts suggest that this away-from-the-Gulf-coast flow will continue until the middle of next week. After that, it appears the flow over the Gulf turns good and southeasterly and is maintained for a long time (10 days or more). Pretty decent moisture return occurs then, although I don't see any super rich moisture content getting much past the Gulf coast in TX/LA (the ECMWF is a little more bullish in bringing at least high-60s dews as far north as I-20 or so). I'll stop there as even that's getting a bit too detailed for the forecast range and model resolution. I agree, though, that a period of relative warmth and humidity are on their way. Unfortunately it seems like large-scale flow/disturbances will be largely absent, so there won't be much to do with the increased heat/moisture.
Dan Robinson
EF5
The Euro's been holding on to a May 2005-like Hudson Bay vortex to keep things shut down for the long term. That's not bad news if a June 2005-like pattern can follow.
joel ewing
EF5
Hank, I think Stan Rose was the forecaster on duty the day of Campo. You might check with him. STAN.....you listening?
JamesCaruso
Staff member
It's bad news for those of us who have their chase vacations in May, not June!
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Derek Weston
EF5
i really hope lots of tornadoes come in june
lol
lol
Tom Dulong
EF2
Don't give up yet on May. Latest several runs of the GEFS from NCEP indicate southwest flow at 500 mb working its way from the inter-mountain region to the central high plains May 18th-21st. I realize this is wishcasting, but at least there has been some run-to-run consistency to support something positive for anyone who has a chasecation for mid to late May.
Jesse Risley
Staff member
I'm not aware of any reliable method that can truly predict the outlook for the tornado season, though with that having been said, from an anecdotal standpoint, a quiet early season is not necessarily indicative of how the remainder of the season is going to evolve. Granted, the long-range models aren't predicting anything magnanimous in the next 10 days or so (e.g., deep southwestern trough with lots of shear and copious moisture), but we've still got almost four weeks left in May, along with June, and there is usually secondary seasonal events in the northern Plains in July and August too. I seem to remember 2005 having a rather quiet April and May, at least compared to other more active seasons (e.g., 2003, 2004, 2007 and 2008), but then the first few weeks of June were pretty robust in terms of tornadogenesis across the Plains.
There's been quite a bit of moisture dumped in the form of late season snows across the northern Plains into the Prairie Provinces of Canada (AB, SK, and MB); if you place stock into the role of surface ground moisture in the evolution of severe weather events, then that is something to take note of. Also, if some moisture return can commence across the far southern Plains, you can always get the localized plays too (e.g., Caprock events, upslope plays in SE CO), as not every rewarding supercell or tornado intercept has to bank on a respectable outbreak with a classic trough, deep surface low and plenteous instability. Even if the overly pessimistic crowd is correct re: the whole season being a dud, I am still convinced we have yet to see a few rewarding days between now and the end of June, something that can still make a season if you're lucky enough to catch them. Yes, the crashing cold fronts that keep scouring the moisture are cause for concern, and if nothing else, we're apt to see a quieter season every once in awhile if you look at seasonal climatology.
There's been quite a bit of moisture dumped in the form of late season snows across the northern Plains into the Prairie Provinces of Canada (AB, SK, and MB); if you place stock into the role of surface ground moisture in the evolution of severe weather events, then that is something to take note of. Also, if some moisture return can commence across the far southern Plains, you can always get the localized plays too (e.g., Caprock events, upslope plays in SE CO), as not every rewarding supercell or tornado intercept has to bank on a respectable outbreak with a classic trough, deep surface low and plenteous instability. Even if the overly pessimistic crowd is correct re: the whole season being a dud, I am still convinced we have yet to see a few rewarding days between now and the end of June, something that can still make a season if you're lucky enough to catch them. Yes, the crashing cold fronts that keep scouring the moisture are cause for concern, and if nothing else, we're apt to see a quieter season every once in awhile if you look at seasonal climatology.
Stan Rose
EF5
Here's what i wrote in the forecast thread for that day: So...It's interesting to note that both NAM and WRF have been very consistent in blowing up a cell(s) over SE CO tomorrow afternoon. Cap is pretty strong, but by 20-21Z convergence along the retreating dryline should help fire off a storm or two over the Southeast Plains. CAPE realistically in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with dews in the lower 50s sneaking into CO, and bulk shears around 40-50 kts should be sufficient for supercellular structure. Decent potential for large hail. Low level winds are not very exciting, which will limit tornado production, but hey--this is Colorado and anything is possible! Initial target: Pritchett.
Note that my initial target was Pritchett—guess where the first tornado was reported? 
The misconception about Campo was that ingredients were lacking—they weren't, they were just a bit more subtle, which of course is one thing at 240+ hours that the GFS wont pick up—subtlety. Don't have any data archived with me, but ill see if I can dig it up.Derek Weston
EF5
indeed, keeping on with this in latest run for the central plains. even moved up a supposed event to around the 16th or so along with the system date you mentioned. of course both look like the typical BS CF setup with upper support being post frontal... but I've seen that change often enough. (I do hate such setups with a passion though) At the very least we ought to have good moisture to work with.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Not likely worth a new forecast thread, but in the theme of this discussion.... interesting to note today's LBB AM discussion. Weird things happen out in the west this time of year. I'm not sure the LCL's would support a tornado, but I'll take any supercell given the situation and a "60k jet max."
W.
W.
Tony Gilbert
EF1
In general the extended GFS has been pretty close to the mark for the past couple of weeks. A Rex block was predicted and that is still pretty much on the cards for the next few days. Further ahead from this we can see that a more conducive pattern looks to develop but eventually moving the best activity to the central and northern plains by mid May. ATM I do not see any digging trough forecast for the next 14 days, though of course this could change! I suppose the main positive factor here is there the models have continued to push a relatively moderate jet stream through by 14th May onwards. Though as mentioned, not sure how much moisture will be available this early that far north?
