State of the Chase Season 2025

[Matthew Crowther]

That about sums up the season at this point. The relative silence in this thread since mid-May speaks volumes.

I didn't expect a good chase season going in, but the miraculous removal of drought in April gave me newfound hope... always a dangerous thing. Thus far, in classic chase country, 2025 has pretty much boiled down to the Matador/Miami day in April, the Arnett day in mid May, and the overperforming/sleeper E CO day in late May. There were also a few highly non-obvious sleeper days well south into Texas outside the main chase alley, for example around the San Angelo and Waco areas, which seems to have become a theme in recent years. Other than that, a lot of underperforming setups, a lot of OFBs surging south all day long, and a lot of frontal zones continuing to hang out deep into TX even as the clock ticks down on spring. A lot of mediocre structure that's tended to lean HP most days. Not much jaw-dropping structure anywhere in the Plains that I can recall from social media, let alone that I've seen firsthand. The once promised land of central and western KS/NE looks to remain largely dormant for, what, the 7th or 8th of the last 10 years?

It's not like the season to-date has been bad enough to clinch a "bad" year. If June could just perform like a median June used to pre-2010, the season would end up pretty average. There's very little sign of that on current guidance, though. I hope a few flukes unfold over the next 7-10 days to make me eat my words, and/or that an actual favorable pattern materializes mid-late month, even if it's for the Dakotas. But yeah, to put it bluntly... everything since May 18 has felt like scraps and long shots, and everything I see on the guidance for now looks that way, too. There's some ensemble signal for WSW flow poking out into the northern Plains by days 10-15, but so many seemingly favorable patterns at that lead time have completely collapsed that I'm not paying it much attention yet.

I must disagree on the structure front somewhat. Snyder HP on April 29, Post Arnett LP, Haskell HP were all pretty darn good IMO. I understand that some chasers don't like HP structure, but to me, the mode is mostly irrelevant. YMMV.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

That about sums up the season at this point. The relative silence in this thread since mid-May speaks volumes.

I didn't expect a good chase season going in, but the miraculous removal of drought in April gave me newfound hope... always a dangerous thing. Thus far, in classic chase country, 2025 has pretty much boiled down to the Matador/Miami day in April, the Arnett day in mid May, and the overperforming/sleeper E CO day in late May. There were also a few highly non-obvious sleeper days well south into Texas outside the main chase alley, for example around the San Angelo and Waco areas, which seems to have become a theme in recent years. Other than that, a lot of underperforming setups, a lot of OFBs surging south all day long, and a lot of frontal zones continuing to hang out deep into TX even as the clock ticks down on spring. A lot of mediocre structure that's tended to lean HP most days. Not much jaw-dropping structure anywhere in the Plains that I can recall from social media, let alone that I've seen firsthand. The once promised land of central and western KS/NE looks to remain largely dormant for, what, the 7th or 8th of the last 10 years?

It's not like the season to-date has been bad enough to clinch a "bad" year. If June could just perform like a median June used to pre-2010, the season would end up pretty average. There's very little sign of that on current guidance, though. I hope a few flukes unfold over the next 7-10 days to make me eat my words, and/or that an actual favorable pattern materializes mid-late month, even if it's for the Dakotas. But yeah, to put it bluntly... everything since May 18 has felt like scraps and long shots, and everything I see on the guidance for now looks that way, too. There's some ensemble signal for WSW flow poking out into the northern Plains by days 10-15, but so many seemingly favorable patterns at that lead time have completely collapsed that I'm not paying it much attention yet.

I would sum up chase season 2025 in the words of the Anatoly Dyatlov character (comically inaccurately) assessing the post-explosion radiation situation at Chernobyl in the 2019 HBO miniseries. "Not great, not terrible."

It could certainly have gone worse (2018 is the modern-day benchmark for an absolutely horrible season in my opinion, with only Tescott on May 1 saving it from completely lacking any redeeming events whatsoever), but as you point out there are ways it could have gone a lot better, too.

Since I was able to get Arnett that automatically puts it into the "good season" category for me personally, but honestly I targeted that setup thinking the hot spot would be around Medicine Lodge-Attica, KS (basically May 12th, 2004 all over again) and that the 19th was a much higher-ceiling day that it ended up being. If you'd told me I'd have to go 150-200 more miles further either southwest or northwest for a long-lived, photogenic daylight tornado on the 18th, and the 19th wouldn't really produce anything at all in that regard, I'd probably have cancelled my PTO and stayed home.

For the Midwest east of the Mississippi River it has been pretty quiet since the rash of early season activity (which was nearly all QLCS's moving at highway speed and/or after dark). After early April we've really only had the May 15th-16th sequence, the latter day obviously produced but the 15th was likewise fast-moving and HP in Wisconsin (with the exception of the Roberts tornado, in an astoundingly open/treeless spot for that far north) and plagued by excessively hot temperatures and the resulting LCL issues in Illinois.

Elsewhere it's been mentioned that part of the increase in traffic may be due to an increasingly widespread lowering of standards or "never stop chasing" mentality. I really don't understand the appeal of burning PTO, gas/potentially hotel money, wear and tear on your car, stressful driving in bad weather for junk storms that I could see from home. Unless I'm really desperate, if I don't think a setup has at least some potential to produce visible, daylight tornadoes or quality structure I simply won't chase it.

The Tyler Owens character in Twisters (not-so-subtly based on RT) had the catchphrase "If you feel it, chase it!" Well, the obvious flip side of that is, "If you don't feel it, don't chase it."

 

[William Monfredo]

...assessing the post-explosion radiation situation at Chernobyl...

...& looking back at May 18th tornadoes in southwest KS...
They both blew up after dark! I know, kind of a bummer for chasers who pursue daylight storms.

 

[Jason N]

I'll be out from 13 to 21st chasing up North.. hopefully will have some really nice structure and if all goes well, something extra special but I actually enjoy chasing further up north. I think there will be narrow corridors to work in during most of the time I will be out there. shifting geographically most likely, but @Jeff House 's post pretty much sums it up well with rotational draws to the north.. further east ,, and back to the west .. This is my area of Low Prob (Green) to Medium Prob (Yellow) from 14-23June

 

[Jason N]

Not much jaw-dropping structure anywhere in the Plains that I can recall from social media, let alone that I've seen firsthand. The once promised land of central and western KS/NE looks to remain largely dormant for, what, the 7th or 8th of the last 10 years?

I have thought about this over the years, and ok, slap me now because I am not about to go on some APG Climate scare, but, if the atmosphere from say 700Mb on down does carry say more heat, or moisture, maybe it effects lapse rates or something in the dynamics of the cloud .. and I wonder if we could model decadal QPF changes or something to see if there is a net effect of some kind, maybe dry air isn't "as dry" so the correlation to seeing striking relationships to condensed clouds has been affected? or if we are moister, maybe this means something in the grand scheme of things say in the southern plains vs. northern plains where air is just naturally drier still being further away from source regions

****I am not a cloud dynamics expert at all so, perhaps everything I just said is bullshit lol and just conjecture and supposition.****

 

[Dave C]

I have to agree with those who regard this season as a dud. Even those who have been out chasing nearly everything anywhere seem to have only seen 3-4 decent storms.

Obviously a couple great storms can make a season feel like a success for some, but I have not seen very many years if any since I started in 2011 where there were so few opportunities within 8 or so hours (one way) from my base in Denver area between May 1 and June 10. Unfortunately I will be traveling and likely cannot make anything mid to late June, so this will be my very first season except 2011 (when I was learning) with zero photos I am happy with.

I did see the Akron tornado but unless you were at a certain angle at a brief time, it was mostly low contrast and dusty and the structure was to me not that impressive. The rope out looked kinda cool. I had fun but left feeling still hungry for something just a bit more impressive. I fear I have become a storm snob, but I regard most of the storms this year as a pile of meh except Arnett and the NM tornado. A couple structure shots I have seen are decent, but nothing I am torn up about missing or would have driven 20 hours round trip to see.

Next year I think I may adjust location to chase NM/ TX panhandle as often as possible. It seems to be one of the only reliable areas most recent years.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I have always been a 'one day makes a season' guy... I've had a few days to make this season. Obviously what makes the season or success is subjective based upon the person and how they experienced it. For most, 2024 was the season of their careers. For me, it was 2024... mostly a dud, except I had the one really good day on April 26, but even then, missed the biggest show of that event. Otherwise it was a largely forgettable year for me.

This year; different story. My 'one-day-makes-a-season' became a couple days. Obviously the May 16 southeast Missouri (north of Sikeston) tornado was tops for the year in terms of photogenic; also made for incredible live TV as we aired that one in progress on AccuWeather. That followed up by northwest Kansas on the 18th, which included what I would say is probably my number 1 tornado intercept there at Grinnell on I-70. Prior to that, we had the long-lived photogenic wedge, and honestly a top 10 Kansas day EASILY. I know most folks would argue that Arnette was the storm of the day, I would take it to court to give that to northwest Kansas with all my arguments plus the LACK of hordes. Again, subjective and just my opinion.

Still half the year left; so it's too early to settle on where 2025 stands for me in terms of my best years. But a 'best' year can easily be because of a solid stretch (see 2016). Obviously for me, 2023 will probably hold my top year as many quality events were scattered over the course of many months, but having several really good events so far this year will probably put 2025 in my top 5.

And we're only in early June... although things look pretty bleak after this MCS stretch this weekend. Obviously the Colorado Front Range has had several really solid events on sleeper days where there was little synoptic hints of anything bit. So I particularly love living here this time of year cause I can react very quickly the day of. So we'll see...

But for me, the state of the 2025 chasing season is one of my top ones so far. And I'd argue there's still several months of potential that can add to it.

 

[Derek Weston]

My chase territory -- the central plains and upper midwest; NE/KS/IA/IL/MN -- has been really slow this year. The days that I did go out didn't pan-out at all. Can only hope June produces a few big days. Otherwise will try to stay active and ready for out of season setups that may pay off.

 

[Jason N]

I know most folks would argue that Arnette was the storm of the day, I would take it to court to give that to northwest Kansas with all my arguments plus the LACK of hordes. Again, subjective and just my opinion.

I think that's the subjective Calculus and algorithm that's defined differently by all chasers at varying experience levels, the number of years they've been doing it and their backgrounds, set against the changing social and atmospheric environments not to mention the rise of the Hoard, and I think that's exactly why there's probably going to be one person says every years sucks compared to 2011, 2013 or 1996, or 74, or 24!.. well yeah!! .. I could be in the worst statistical seasons ever, see 1 Tor on my own that year and say, "best year ever for me"!, why? because I caught 1 of 250 TORs in the entire season.. that's one way to look at it I guess.

Quantity vs. Quality (Ven Diagram anyone?)
- we are happy with high quantity even if the quality of each chase is lower.
- We could be happy even if the Quantity is low, so long as the Quality of the show is high
- if both Quality and Quantity is low, no one is happy.
- if Quantity and Quality are high, everyone is happy, unless you couldn't chase that year.

 

[William Monfredo]

I may adjust location to chase NM/ TX panhandle as often as possible...reliable areas most recent years.

The Lone-Star State has had a lot going for it lately, I agree. It's like the ol' thread where to live or base out of, say Amarillo, TX?

And we're only in early June...

For sure. We've got plenty of time to get a lot of good things. Remember last year? We even had some great hurricane-spawned events.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

The state of MY chase season has been ok, with tornadoes in Littlefield, TX on 4/25, Arnett on 5/18 and Beaver, OK on 5/28. I don't feel like there's been a stand out day so far this year like a Rozel 2013, Canadian 2015, Leoti or Dodge City 2016 or more currently Lockett 2021 or Lincoln 2024.

Maybe there's still time for that to happen.

Arnett was cool and all but not at the levels of the storms mentioned above. Structure-wise, I'm on the side that there's nothing really that has stood out to me that isn't just maybe above average. I admit my threshold for what I consider good has certainly gotten higher over the last few years and I'm kind of bummed about that, but it is what it is. So at this point, personally it has been a pretty good year, but not a memorable one.

Overall, this season has reminded me a lot of 2013, but at a lower level. Three to five good to really good days and the rest of the season with not much else. The difference is 2013 had great to epic days to make up for the down time.

Edit: I'm aware of the Nebraska wedge and I believe there was a NM tor that had I been there for either would have probably vaulted the season into the upper echelon. Maybe they bring it in to 2013 territory a bit.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

The state of MY chase season has been ok, with tornadoes in Littlefield, TX on 4/25, Arnett on 5/18 and Beaver, OK on 5/28. I don't feel like there's been a stand out day so far this year like a Rozel 2013, Canadian 2015, Leoti or Dodge City 2016 or more currently Lockett 2021 or Lincoln 2024.

Maybe there's still time for that to happen.

Arnett was cool and all but not at the levels of the storms mentioned above. Structure-wise, I'm on the side that there's nothing really that has stood out to me that isn't just maybe above average. I admit my threshold for what I consider good has certainly gotten higher over the last few years and I'm kind of bummed about that, but it is what it is. So at this point, personally it has been a pretty good year, but not a memorable one.

Overall, this season has reminded me a lot of 2013, but at a lower level. Three to five good to really good days and the rest of the season with not much else. The difference is 2013 had great to epic days to make up for the down time.

Edit: I'm aware of the Nebraska wedge and I believe there was a NM tor that had I been there for either would have probably vaulted the season into the upper echelon. Maybe they bring it in to 2013 territory a bit.

The way Arnett looked with the sun backlighting it kind of resembled Rozel at times (see my avatar), but looking back at photos from chasers who really nailed that event (such as @Dan Robinson), that tornado got considerably larger and probably lasted longer (at least in a fully condensed state, Arnett teased us as a halfway-down cone with rotating rain curtains and occasional vortices underneath for a good 3-4 minutes).

 

[Sean Ramsey]

The way Arnett looked with the sun backlighting it kind of resembled Rozel at times (see my avatar), but looking back at photos from chasers who really nailed that event (such as @Dan Robinson), that tornado got considerably larger and probably lasted longer (at least in a fully condensed state, Arnett teased us as a halfway-down cone with rotating rain curtains and occasional vortices underneath for a good 3-4 minutes).

Rozel lasted much longer and was definitely more beefy and produced again near Sanford not long afterward. It made us wait much longer than Arnett did though lol. I remember my excitement level being off the charts. It's so hard these days to see things through the same lens that I did years ago and that probably influences how I feel about things today (kind of what Jason N mentioned earlier I'm sure).

 

[William Monfredo]

...so hard these days to see things through the same lens that I did years ago...

Nice Rozel shot, Sean. But, I hear you. I was just thinking today how difficult it is to recapture that sense of childlike wonder. I imagine that it must be like some kinds of drugs where the threshold doses have to increase. One can't unsee all the weather that one has already seen.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

Updated US chase map for 2025.