State of the Chase Season 2025

[William Monfredo]

I failed in my 14-year quest to not miss a historic/significant tornado in St. Louis visible behind the skyline. Will I keep my home target bias after it's not only cost me so much, but ended up failing anyway? Who knows. I know it will be 60-70 years before something like that happens again, if history is any indication. It's the first time a tornado was visible behind the Arch since it was built 62 years ago, anyway. Likely not in my lifetime.

Some might agree with you, not likely in your lifetime, but I don't. Here's why...
You may have missed one grungy tornado with the Arch in 14 years, but you really can't say if it will be 6 or 7 decades before it happens again, because you simply can't count on if "history is any indication."
The chance of something happening doesn't substantially change just because the event happens.
The coin that you flip today that lands on heads, doesn't mean your next flip tomorrow has to be tails.
You can't even rely on recurrence intervals; they can be way shorter...or longer.
Recall a tornado hit Tinker AFB in 1948, and then it got hit again the next week! Nature doesn't have to wait to satisfy our man-made numbers.
I'm a huge fan of that Arch, and please do not give up on your quest for that, because the next shot is there to be had and hopefully by you.

 

[John Farley]

I may be sticking with Colorado and New Mexico the rest of the season. Maybe the Panhandles or western KS, but after my results on trips the last couple years to the I-35 corridor in Oklahoma, I am through with that. At the age of 75, maybe permanently. I have never had much luck in Oklahoma, anyway - I have seen better tornadoes in EVERY state that borders on Oklahoma than I ever have there. Maybe I just have bad luck there, but there have been a lot of setups the past couple years that have underperformed there. If that is becoming a pattern, probably best not to make the real long treks no matter how good the setup might look. Although things are kinda rockin' in southern Oklahoma as I write this, there aren't any of those great-looking setups in the outlook for the next week or two, and climatologically after that it will become less likely. So I may be making a moot point, at least for the rest of this season.

 

[Todd Lemery]

I’d go James. The only bad chase is the one you didn’t make

 

[Brett Roberts]

I'm pretty frustrated at how this season has evolved since the surprising, ENSO-bucking deluge over the last two weeks of April. The southern Plains are sitting ripe for a sequence like May 21-25, 2016, or late May 2019, due to abundant evapotranspiration. This means that any conventionally active pattern with impressive trough ejections is bolstered by PBL moisture retention during the afternoon, and that even fairly quiescent zonal or WSW flow is more likely to produce mesoscale gems than the same pattern would be in drought years. Really, all we need is >25 kt of mid-level flow and any pattern besides deep eastern troughing plowing moisture into the Gulf repeatedly. But that's exactly what we've gotten lots of since the April 24-28 sequence ended, and that looks to continue for the foreseeable future.

Without a doubt, Sunday 5/18 was a really good chase day if you were on Arnett (which I was, thankfully). Still, the 5/17-5/19 sequence is just the umpteenth example post-4/14/2012 of leaving a ton on the table when a healthy trough ejects into the Plains with high-end ingredients. At least the lush vegetation likely helped the Arnett storm to perform as well it did for its 30-minute window before succumbing to low-level stability.

There's another string of decent but flawed opportunities upcoming from today through Sun or Mon. One of those could certainly overperform and help bring the month of May up closer to average. It's just really hard to piece together an enticing sequence where each day has a high ceiling when we keep starting over from scratch weekly trying to pull >55 F dews back onto the TX Gulf coast. I sure hope we can finally manage one legitimate 4-5 day stretch of real mesoscale opportunities uninhibited by moisture return at some point in June, even if it's up north. As of now, there's no particular sign on the guidance that we're likely to shake the eastern troughing... but admittedly, medium-range skill has been quite poor the past few weeks.

 

[Dave C]

I'm pretty frustrated at how this season has evolved ...

I completely agree. Not only does it not make sense, but it is getting to be common enough most years to be frustrating in a cumulative sense.

For those willing or able to chase in the non jungle portions of OK or TX, there have been a few decent days in recent years. Mostly because moisture doesn't have far to go to overspread those regions, and there is always at least some flow that coincides even without typical spring trough oscillations. The Arnett day was the most photogenic thing I have seen out of OK in a long while, but I chose NW KS...

I haven't done any careful tabulation, but just looking through photos from the last decade I can see my trip average of 5-7 decent one or two day trips per year with <=30% bust rate has decreased to about 2 - 3 trips the last few years, with a >=50% bust rate.

I am strongly considering trying to only chase the TX panhandle April setups next year, which have been fairly reliable in 2-3 day setups in recent years, assuming May/June is going to continue to be a dud for the parts of KS/CO/WY/NE/NM that are within ~8 hours of my base.

This season still has a narrow window to save itself, but this makes several in a row with something always wrong with the majority of setups in the terrain I enjoy chasing.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

Honestly since 2013, not only has chasing in Oklahoma been largely disappointing but storm seasons in general have been mostly lackluster. There are a few exceptions but year after year goes by mostly quiet, save for a couple of days here and there from March to the end of May. I'm based in Central Oklahoma and every chase seems to take me 4+ hours to arrive at a target location and it's been this way for years.

I find Oklahoma largely frustrating in itself to chase in. I love chasing the panhandle and of course North, Western, NW & SW Oklahoma (from Hollis say to about Duncan) but these areas have had very sparse setups over the years. I loathe chasing east of I-35 and honestly it doesn't take a western/southwestern Oklahoma storm long to approach the outer areas of the metro these days which is off limits for me as well. Nevermind the turnpike chasing required on a regular basis or dealing with the tremendous amounts of chasers themselves when there is a good storm. A long time ago it developed this reputation of being the storm capitol of the world (Twister kind of bolstered that) but in the last twelve years or so it's been pretty dormant and when there are storms there's just so much to contend with because they always seem to happen in the worst chasing areas or end up there pretty quickly.

 

[Jason N]

Without a doubt, Sunday 5/18 was a really good chase day if you were on Arnett (which I was, thankfully).

Having watched several YT videos on it, it had a really exposed LP base.. honestly that would have made the rest of the crap seemed ok. That nocturnal monster IVO Greensburg, at night, just doesn't have the same effect or reward, for me anyway.

its gambling knowing the odds favor that you're going to waste money in the spirit of the hunt, its why I HAVE to find the other things ... I cant make it solely about the Tornado.. if I did, I would have stopped it 15 years ago.

 

[Jason N]

I find Oklahoma largely frustrating in itself to chase in. I love chasing the panhandle and of course North, Western, NW & SW Oklahoma (from Hollis say to about Duncan) but these areas have had very sparse setups over the years. I loathe chasing east of I-35 and honestly it doesn't take a western/southwestern Oklahoma storm long to approach the outer areas of the metro these days which is off limits for me as well. Nevermind the turnpike chasing required on a regular basis or dealing with the tremendous amounts of chasers themselves when there is a good storm.

100% .. it's just not worth it, I got caught in a few HP's IVO OKC on the north side a couple times around Acadia towards Perkins doing the dash and the roads got stupid quick.. floods and traffic on that Red clay... No... just no, so I quit that area awhile back. keep me up north, out west. Get me on the Cap Rock... or take me in to Lower KS... lol still some issues there, but manageable.

 

[Jason N]

After about 4 to 5 days of looking at trends, there could be a period between June 13/14 to 18/20 or perhaps longer if the models are too fast in the movement of the 5 wave shifting the window to the right or left around that time. it's obviously way early yet to feel confident beyond saying, the trends are showing some promise of at least some pockets of potential. Region wise.. if the Jet locations and supporting extended runs with climo continue to line up, could be a NE , Ern CO, SD, ND, IA type of area.... beyond that, it's all crafty magic.

Confidence (somewhat to maybe slightly or low to med) depending on the scale you use lol

 

[Jeff House]

This weekend starting Friday I think has potential. SPC dropped the 2% for Friday as progs markedly improved the low-level temps and dews. Looking at 80/60 in the target area vs 85/55 progged 24 hours ago.

Saturday and Sunday have their bust modes for sure; however, this last week of May tends to be more forgiving of imperfections. Risk is a narrow zone between the sharp boundary and the cap, but there is enough with which to work. One or both days may MCS out. Either day could produce a hidden gem though.

So @JamesCaruso I feel like it's a judgement call. Either way time with son is great. Understand you also both might want whole family time, but there are other summer weekends. If I had until June 7-10 (forgot your exact day) I'd fly in/out of Denver in time to chase on Friday. Chances are pretty good that by around June 10 it's High Plains or Northern Plains - favoring the Denver departure. Also it's offers the gorgeous Rocky Mountains. Go state parks or national forests, not crowded RMNP.

I thought about going this weekend, but my chase partner is tired (and frustrated) after busting last sequence. I was unable to go, so I really haven't taken my trip yet. I might go the first week in June regardless of weather. Perhaps my chase buddy will be ready to try again.

Frist week of June is zig zagging on models. I'm thinking we can get a Northern / High Plains event or two. I've seen progs anywhere from Central US to ridge. Even the latter ridge isn't what I'd call death ridge in Texas. Still AN heights North, which isn't a total shut-down.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Holding up in Chase Base Amarillo. Friday could be BIG if 4k+ CAPES are realized. Other days over the weekend and into early next week are too difficult to forecast in advance due to a lot of wildcards like OFB's and DL placement. In this late May, western TX environment, I generally don't even waste time looking at forecasts beyond chase day AM conditions. I would not be surprised if some very picturesque landspouts occur over the next 4-5 days.

 

[JamesCaruso]

So @JamesCaruso I feel like it's a judgement call. Either way time with son is great. Understand you also both might want whole family time, but there are other summer weekends. If I had until June 7-10 (forgot your exact day) I'd fly in/out of Denver in time to chase on Friday. Chances are pretty good that by around June 10 it's High Plains or Northern Plains - favoring the Denver departure. Also it's offers the gorgeous Rocky Mountains. Go state parks or national forests, not crowded RMNP.

I thought about going this weekend, but my chase partner is tired (and frustrated) after busting last sequence. I was unable to go, so I really haven't taken my trip yet. I might go the first week in June regardless of weather. Perhaps my chase buddy will be ready to try again.

Thanks Jeff. I’m feeling just like your chase partner right now, after also busting on the last sequence. For my son’s sake, I don’t want to let that bias me against chasing. At the same time, my son is not fanatical about having to see something. It’s more about the time together, and we’ll have that even if we don’t head out until Sunday or Monday. Today (Friday 5/23) was never realistic for us anyway; it’s always a stretch to fly from the east coast and chase on the same day, and my son had a late night with friends planned last night after his graduation. Too rushed for either of us to get out there today. For Saturday, I basically left it up to him, whether to chase or go to his good friend’s graduation party. Ordinarily I might be more adamant about chasing Saturday, but after my frustrating trip and general cynicism about the setup I’m actually glad he made that choice.

Next decision is whether to aim for Sunday (with the difficulties of flying/chasing same day) or wait until Monday. It almost seems pointless to head out on Monday with nothing as far as the eye can see. I do agree there may be some mesoscale surprises in CO or in SW TX, but those areas are very far apart and it’s difficult to choose where to fly in at this point.

 

[Jeff House]

GM @JamesCaruso Saturday looks like a central Oklahoma circus, so staying home looks like the right call. Graduation of a friend was definitely the Way (of the Mandalorian). Yeah, I wouldn't be in a rush until after Memorial Day. Then just enjoy the time.

I'm probably rolling out sometime in June with or without my usual chase partner. We still have stuff until May 31. If I have to go solo I can meet friends out there from KC to ICT, but I'm actually hoping it'll be north away from the hoards of chasers. No Plains ridge is forecast. Long as there is a little flow under the North AN heights, things should happen first third of June.