State of the Chase Season 2025

[Todd Lemery]

Don’t feel bad James, the only bad chase days are the days you don’t chase. I’ll complain as much as anyone, but just being out and about is fun and relaxing.
Although I live in a decent area to do last minute plains chasing, I’ve only been out for a couple of short chases. My wife had a back surgery earlier this season and was away for one of our daughter’s graduations and got back yesterday just ahead of the storms rolling into NW Arkansas. My season is starting now and I’ll be out starting this weekend hoping for some of Warren’s “sneak attacks”.
With everybody having a camera in their pocket makes it seem like a lot more people are scoring tornadoes every storm day than there actually is. I enjoy my days and don’t worry so much anymore how anyone else is doing.

 

[JamesCaruso]

yeah, it appears that in the longer range after about the 23rd, the next 10+days, big ridge sets up, closing off and real larger outbreak potential, but honestly, after these last two "outbreaks" I'd prefer consistent DL days all along it, but in the meantime, the next 10+ days turn into as Warren puts it, "sneek attack "days within the 60HR window, but it appears that into the second weak of June and beyond, the 5 wave starts to shift, and brings in some additional potential across the mid and upper plains, and moisture returns look more stable possibly so, perhaps mid-June could be somewhat more active.

That’s great, just after my longest-ever chasing window of May 12 - June 8 ends, and I even had another short window in early May but didn’t use because nothing was happening, and the action finally begins in the second week of June when I definitely cannot be on the Plains.

I spent plenty of years seeing big events happen just before and/or after a two-week chase trip. I thought my approach this year would significantly improve my odds of success. I guess not.

I’ll respectfully Hope that your long-range forecast turns out to be completely wrong!

 

[Jason N]

I cant blame you for wanting that!

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

I laid in bed trying to go sleep on Sunday as social media erupted with multiple tornadoes along the Front Range. I was supposed to work Sun evening only to wake up and find out my shift had cancelled.

Now I'm supposed to be off the 22nd - 26th and the SPC is deader than a doornail and the models look bleak at best.

12 years in Colorado and still have never seen a tornado here.

I don't know I can get to SE OK/N TX for a marginal risk chase on time for initiation on Thursday so I may play the CO/KS border in hopes something pops, then play Central KS on Friday for another marginal risk.

I am really having a love/hate relationship with Mother Nature right now.

It still feels like that shift from La Niña to ENSO Neutral really impacted the season.

 

[Mikayla Norris]

I laid in bed trying to go sleep on Sunday as social media erupted with multiple tornadoes along the Front Range. I was supposed to work Sun evening only to wake up and find out my shift had cancelled.

Now I'm supposed to be off the 22nd - 26th and the SPC is deader than a doornail and the models look bleak at best.

12 years in Colorado and still have never seen a tornado here.

I don't know I can get to SE OK/N TX for a marginal risk chase on time for initiation on Thursday so I may play the CO/KS border in hopes something pops, then play Central KS on Friday for another marginal risk.

I am really having a love/hate relationship with Mother Nature right now.

It still feels like that shift from La Niña to ENSO Neutral really impacted the season.

I feel you. I'm in the Springs and have already missed like 3 tornadoes this season that were within a couple hours of my house. Usually it's been because of work obligations, Sunday though was a much dumber reason. I had planned to chase all the way into the NE corner of the state if necessary, but stayed out too late Saturday like an idiot, slept through my alarm Sunday morning and woke up late and just decided to stay home. Then I also saw social media blowing up...

I lived in SW OK the last 4 years and went on dozens of chases. I was able to chase nearly every single setup in a box from Amarillo to OKC and south to between Lubbock and Wichita Falls. I had forgotten how spoiled I was down there.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Long range guidance is suggesting things will begin to settle down by the end of the month. Sometimes I think Mother Nature has an alarm clock set for June 1st. Until then, there will still be multiple opportunities out west as the dryline gets jiggy. The earlier precipitation out west and high soil RH still have a card to play.

 

[Jeff House]

Well y'all got the next 7-10 days covered. Synoptically evident season is winding down, but it's still just half-time if one considers June magic.

If this weekend storms can be timed properly diurnally opportunity should exist. Too nebulous to know if DL, WF, or maybe even High Plains. WF version would require better wave timing than currently progged, or it'll just be ongoing and sloppy.

Early next week looks like another Plains flush with Tennessee Valley low. Yeah it seems late in the season but it keeps happening.

I feel like when the Atmo resets it'll be Northern Plains and High Plains season. Could get a little interior Northwest wave into the Northern Plains as early as the last day or two of May; otherwise, maybe the first week of June. Note it has to get into the interior NW. Pac-NW trough is just climo in early June.

If the first of June week fails, the MJO could get into a more favorable position toward June 10. That would of course likely be Northern Plains and/or High Plains.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

June and July are when things pop for Colorado, so I shall remain optimistic for more opportunities.

 

[Mitch Drabenstott]

June and July are when things pop for Colorado, so I shall remain optimistic for more opportunities.

I’m headed to Denver from June 19-21. Not specifically for chasing but if a chance comes up I will chase. Really hoping I can get something decent around those dates as my 7 days on the plains last week happened to fall during the deadest part of the year.

 

[JamesCaruso]

So let me get this straight …

- Biggest chasing window I have ever had in 25+ years of chasing, from May 12 to June 8, with the exception of May 21-23…
- (… and had a few days in early May I could have gotten out there too, if it was worth it (but it wasn’t))
- Chased 5 days from May 15-19, including two days in IL, where I would normally never even bother going if I was already on the Plains
- Only 3 of those days were in the traditional southern Plains chase region, one of which was more skewed into the trees east of I-35
- All 3 of which had a failure mode that destroyed opportunities in one or more of the main target areas
- All 5 days not just unsuccessful, but particularly disappointing and frustrating
- Still 2 weeks of chase time to look forward to, in fact it’s the climatological peak of last week of May / first week of June
- Could be the last time my son can join me for an extended trip before he starts working full time now that he is graduating college
- AND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE NOTHING GOOD UNTIL JUNE 10?!? 2 DAYS *AFTER* MY *28-DAY* WINDOW HAS CLOSED?!? EVEN 28 DAYS IS NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SATISFYING SEASON?!?

If this comes to fruition, it may truly be time to give up chasing. It’s not healthy to invest so much time, money, energy, hope and anticipation to something so unpredictable and more likely than not to leave one feeling disappointed, frustrated, empty and unfulfilled, not just for a short time but for a whole year until the next opportunity *maybe* comes around.

 

[Jeff House]

Chase season is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're going to get, but things are going to happen somewhere!

Yeah @Hannah.Taylor it's still pre-season for Colorado. OK maybe first quarter, since tornadoes have already been reported this season - but there is plenty of time for the High Plains.

So @JamesCaruso I'll see you at the DCVZ Denver Cyclonic Vorticity Zone. I'm mostly talking trash, but I definitely want to encourage the Board about the remainder of the season. Also one can just fly to Denver and land right in the DCVZ.

Chaser partner and I are also in somewhat of a slump after what I guess was a lucky several years.

Remember Aaron Judge came out of his 2024 struggles better than ever so far in 2025. I'm not really a Yankees fan but it's an encouraging metaphor. Read about it in the WSJ.

 

[Dan Robinson]

James, I think if I were in your situation, I'd just go on the trip anyway. I sometimes wish I was able to do trips like that, with no huge expectations, less stress, roads to myself and potentially get something no one else sees. There will be storms on the Front Range and High Plains at bare minimum. June is in the fantasyland range, but there's still flow and moisture showing up after Memorial Day. Of course that could go either way as time progresses, but there is still hope before the end of your window.

One of the sites I keep up with is Brian Morganti's chase logs. He has had plenty of unconventional chase trip dates during what most of us would consider "down patterns", but has had plenty of successes and I find his results and logs interesting, even when he isn't scoring the big events of the year.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Thanks @Dan Robinson and @Jeff House. Definitely going to head out, if only because it is quality time with my son. I know he is looking forward to it, and it's right after his college graduation which makes it a milestone trip together. However, I do wonder how quickly I should "rush" out there... The idea of spending at least part of Memorial Day weekend at home with the rest of the family is appealing... Yet SPC has a Day 3 and Day 4 risk now, and from what I can see that could be the best couple of days all week... Although the NWS AFD out of Norman doesn't seem too excited about Saturday... Would you guys aim to be out there for Saturday/Sunday? Is it worth it? How likely am I to miss something good if I wait until Monday to head out?

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

Thanks @Dan Robinson and @Jeff House. Definitely going to head out, if only because it is quality time with my son. I know he is looking forward to it, and it's right after his college graduation which makes it a milestone trip together. However, I do wonder how quickly I should "rush" out there... The idea of spending at least part of Memorial Day weekend at home with the rest of the family is appealing... Yet SPC has a Day 3 and Day 4 risk now, and from what I can see that could be the best couple of days all week... Although the NWS AFD out of Norman doesn't seem too excited about Saturday... Would you guys aim to be out there for Saturday/Sunday? Is it worth it? How likely am I to miss something good if I wait until Monday to head out?

Fri/Sat Colorado is in play. Limited tornado potential for Friday but Colorado has put landspouts down with worse parameters during a Death Ridge with upper 50° temps and 40° dew points, than the models are showing right now. Some decent supercells should be possible Friday. Saturday the parameters look much better here in Colorado for grey whirlie clouds.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Friday-Sun is the last hurrah for us until maybe June. I love the Plains, but if the pattern goes dead or a while, we bolt to the Rockies. Yesterday we went to Great Sand Dunes NP—plenty of places to visit when not chasing.