That about sums up the season at this point. The relative silence in this thread since mid-May speaks volumes.
I didn't expect a good chase season going in, but the miraculous removal of drought in April gave me newfound hope... always a dangerous thing. Thus far, in classic chase country, 2025 has pretty much boiled down to the Matador/Miami day in April, the Arnett day in mid May, and the overperforming/sleeper E CO day in late May. There were also a few highly non-obvious sleeper days well south into Texas outside the main chase alley, for example around the San Angelo and Waco areas, which seems to have become a theme in recent years. Other than that, a lot of underperforming setups, a lot of OFBs surging south all day long, and a lot of frontal zones continuing to hang out deep into TX even as the clock ticks down on spring. A lot of mediocre structure that's tended to lean HP most days. Not much jaw-dropping structure anywhere in the Plains that I can recall from social media, let alone that I've seen firsthand. The once promised land of central and western KS/NE looks to remain largely dormant for, what, the 7th or 8th of the last 10 years?
It's not like the season to-date has been bad enough to clinch a "bad" year. If June could just perform like a median June used to pre-2010, the season would end up pretty average. There's very little sign of that on current guidance, though. I hope a few flukes unfold over the next 7-10 days to make me eat my words, and/or that an actual favorable pattern materializes mid-late month, even if it's for the Dakotas. But yeah, to put it bluntly... everything since May 18 has felt like scraps and long shots, and everything I see on the guidance for now looks that way, too. There's some ensemble signal for WSW flow poking out into the northern Plains by days 10-15, but so many seemingly favorable patterns at that lead time have completely collapsed that I'm not paying it much attention yet.
