Future of the season - 2013 edition

[JamesCaruso]

Nice to see some encouraging posts in the last 24 hours!

Skip and Derek - well said and I agree wholeheartedly. I tried to express a similar sentiment in an earlier post but you managed to do so much more eloquently (and meteorologically!) than I did! The pattern may not be great, but absent a death ridge there WILL be storms (as Marty Feely used to say); there is almost always enough instability around in May such that a perturbation in the mid-level flow - often unresolved on the models at ANY time range - is enough to set things off (paraphrasing lessons learned from Jack Corso and from Roger Edwards over the years). And as Skip said, that can lead to a far more enjoyable chase than a high risk day with fast-moving storms blowing up everywhere with too much moisture taking away visibility and too many yahoos running around. How many such "alleged big days" turned into disappointments?!?

Stan - I feel your frustration over "marginal" setups. I run into that when trying to decide whether to start my chase trip, or wait a week for potentially a better-than-marginal pattern. I run into that on individual chase vacation days, when I debate whether I am almost obligated to drive 300 miles for a marginal chance rather than take a break for the day, relax, catch up on some work, and have a proper dinner... Black and white are much easier to deal with than shades of gray!!!



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[Derek Weston]

Nice to see some encouraging posts in the last 24 hours!


Stan - I feel your frustration over "marginal" setups. I run into that when trying to decide whether to start my chase trip, or wait a week for potentially a better-than-marginal pattern. I run into that on individual chase vacation days, when I debate whether I am almost obligated to drive 300 miles for a marginal chance rather than take a break for the day, relax, catch up on some work, and have a proper dinner... Black and white are much easier to deal with than shades of gray!!!



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This is a problem I have had as well. You always look for something big to drag you out for a stretch. A one and done 2 percenter in SE Colorado is tough to take if you live in the midwest. That said. . . I've begun to realize you just have to take a chance and go out at some point. For me it's when A) the gulf opens up and is no longer decimated by aggressive CFs and B) the absence of a death ridge. I'm hoping the second half of May brings this.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Tail end of the 00z GFS forecast period has a nice pattern change. Again, not nitpicking details at this range, just nice to see something resembling southwest flow in the central US. Lends some hope that the entirety of May won't be restricted to occasional, subtle/marginal chase days.

Yes. I was tempted to say something about it myself, but it's so far out on the GFS, and this season has been so rotten thus far, that I figured I would wait a few runs to see how things develop. I look forward to news from the 12Z.

 

[Shane Adams]

Every month disappoints from year to year. It's easy to love patience and June and the N Plains when the S PLains haven't lit up. Otherwise, it's caravans of Yankees piling into SUVs for 1200-mile marathons to OK every 4-5 days ;-)

One thing I've learned over my years, if anything, is never hang your hat on any time of year. Take chases as they come.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Every month disappoints from year to year. It's easy to love patience and June and the N Plains when the S PLains haven't lit up. Otherwise, it's caravans of Yankees piling into SUVs for 1200-mile marathons to OK every 4-5 days ;-)

One thing I've learned over my years, if anything, is never hang your hat on any time of year. Take chases as they come.

That's a fine philosophy, and certainly a healthy mental outlook, but impractical for those of us far outside the Alley that need to schedule in advance a particular vacation stretch for chasing. For us, all we can do is hang our hat on a particular time of year. I am fortunate enough to have some flexibility in my job such that I can delay a scheduled trip by a week or two if the pattern is unfavorable, but not much more than that; certainly can't just up and go anytime at all within May or June. Maybe someday when I retire or become independently wealthy, whichever comes first


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[cdcollura]

Good day all,

There is a bit of a light at the end of the tunnel as a few models (although quite far out / 180+ hours), including the GFS, are showing less of the dreaded Baja closed low / Rex block scenario we have to stomach for the next week or two. The Pacific trough pattern at a lower latitude (N CA / PAC NW instead of AK) will hopefully return come mid may or after.

June is almost always what I call a redemption month - If you can get out there (anyone remember June 12, 2005 in W TX)?

Schedule wise, mid to late May is usually got a "vacation" window of 2-3 weeks, and up to about June 10, where I simply CANNOT get out there for a week or two. A death ridge continuing into early to mid June? Yes, that will stink for a lot of us.

Also, I was never quite fond of the trough-east & ridge-west pattern. 2009 proved that all too well. The trough lingered in the east, making thunderstorms and rain for weeks in FL (but nothing to chase, just flooding rain) - Doubt I was even able to skydive / sports or do anything outside for nearly 2 months. All that time, the wasted "energy" stayed to the east, and the plains remained ridged. Then June came, and I barely got on the June 5 stuff (WY - saw the tail end of that), and ofcourse had to work June 17 (so I missed that).

The persistent trough of '09 in the east also essentially "vaccinated" the US from anything tropical (hurricanes) to the east and / or sheared them apart (shear - Never there when you need it, there when you don't)

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

Confidence is growing that the MJO, which has now emerged into phase 1, will work its way into its warmer phases during the back half of the month, which could be enough to kick us out of this dreadful pattern. Things to watch will be 1. if the MJO can continue to roll through its warm phases through the end of the month, and 2. if this will end up putting a ridge across most of the US, which can kind of be seen in the recent 06z GFS run. Of course, a big ridge would still be better than what we've got now, but it is not the kind of pattern change we were hoping for.

Latest ECM forecast:



Temperature anomalies for phases 4-6:

 

[brentford]

Just a real bad feeling that we kick straight into summer after this skipping anything spring like. Another problem is little or no rain in the last few months around the North Texas area, looks like the miserable drought will only intensify.

 

[TrumanBoyer]

Confidence is growing that the MJO, which has now emerged into phase 1, will work its way into its warmer phases during the back half of the month...

This early on, the "pineapple express" sounds like a pipe dream... Personally, I am content with waiting for Late May / June.

Slow moving storms with less chaser traffic. What's not to like...?

Sorry Shane, this Damn Yankee might get in your way...

 

[Jeff Duda]

Personally, I am content with waiting for Late May / June.

Slow moving storms with less chaser traffic. What's not to like...?

You might want to reconsider how you think about that. All the chasers that would usually be out in full force during most of April and May have nothing to chase. So what do they do? They wait. EVERYONE waits. If you think the roads during any decent setups/chases in late May/early June will be relatively unpopulated, you'll probably be in for an unpleasant surprise. This lack of activity is probably going to result in even MORE crowded roads once a large-scale chaseable event finally comes.

 

[Hank Schyma]

One forecast that's been spot on every year (as long as I've been forecasting) is that at some point during the season the GFS will forecast doom. You could probably copy and paste this conversation in 2014 at some point. Hang in there friends... Like Skip said earlier... Judging the season until Mid -July is pretty pointless. ALSO, does anybody know where we can find some pre Campo data... might brighten things up a bit here.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

You might want to reconsider how you think about that. All the chasers that would usually be out in full force during most of April and May have nothing to chase. So what do they do? They wait. EVERYONE waits. If you think the roads during any decent setups/chases in late May/early June will be relatively unpopulated, you'll probably be in for an unpleasant surprise. This lack of activity is probably going to result in even MORE crowded roads once a large-scale chaseable event finally comes.

Couldn't agree more. You're looking at a large group of chasers who are both desperate and also have a much larger chunk of their chasing fund available than would be normal this time of year. People are going to be chasing whatever they can. I know I will be.

 

[Skip Talbot]

On the other hand, a lot of those chasers won't drive more than three hours away from OKC, especially for anything less than a 10 hatched setup.

 

[Tony Gilbert]

On the other hand, a lot of those chasers won't drive more than three hours away from OKC, especially for anything less than a 10 hatched setup.

Tend to agree!

Whilst most chasers will soon be drooling at the bit after relentless storm starvation. I nevertheless wonder how many are willing to travel two or three states north to get into a SLIGHT risk outlook? I think anything that emerges on the southern plains over the next few weeks will be very busy. Whereas any action in the northern territories will primarily be enjoyed by local chasers and those with a higher budget and flexible work time schedules!

Certainly a less blocked outlook is more indicative for around 14th onwards. Though no real deep temp anomalies predicted as yet! Though probably like the rest of you I can't stop checking the extended GFS morning and night!

 

[Adam Adkins]

Well regardless, this is Eastern Colorado... today.