Future of the season - 2013 edition

[JamesCaruso]

I can't believe some of you are ready to call it a season already! Even the bad seasons being cited as analogs had some good chase days. Sure, things have been quiet, but how much of an indicator is that, really, for May and June? As they say in the investment community, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results! As moisture and instability set in, the Plains become a tinderbox that needs only a small spark to set it off. Sure, the next week to 10 days is going to be dead, but the models are worthless beyond that, and you just don't know what lies around the corner.


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[Hannah.Taylor]

I can't believe some of you are ready to call it a season already! Even the bad seasons being cited as analogs had some good chase days. Sure, things have been quiet, but how much of an indicator is that, really, for May and June? As they say in the investment community, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results! As moisture and instability set in, the Plains become a tinderbox that needs only a small spark to set it off. Sure, the next week to 10 days is going to be dead, but the models are worthless beyond that, and you just don't know what lies around the corner.


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as Jeff Piotrowski pointed out, unless the NW moisture patterns shifts to a SW'erly pattern, there won't be anything to give it that spark. dewpoints have been well below normal, and the moisture is just not there right now. Hopefully it will change and if it happens in Mid-May to June, well then that's just about perfect for me because I'm all freed up then.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Not worried. My free roaming period is May 9-May 27, and the way things are currently progressing makes me fairly optimistic about my chances. After the low is done sitting around and slowly moves out, the GFS hints at better possibilities after May 10. I look for the show to get started in some fashion somewhere in there. May not be an epic season, but I fully expect a few good days.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Screw it all let's just go chase dust devils in China.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c74_1367145591

 

[E Hale]

I'm only apprehensive about geographical locations, not necessarily the entire season as a whole. I'm sure there will be a fair number of reports coming out of the central and northern plains, but the eastern Southern Plains (NWS Tulsa area) really need something to get going in the first half of May, if history is to repeat itself (and it usually does).

 

[Gregory Kaeser]

I pity the people who spent thousands of dollars to fly over from Europe, Australia and Asia to go chase this year. I can only imagine the level of disappointment they must have. In fact, I compare it my disappointment of spending 13 days chasing in 2011, and traversing 5,500 miles, to see one lousy tornado....which to date, is the only one I have ever seen and we had to run it from! Didn't even get to enjoy it and photograph it and video it.

Hello Hannah
It's not so bad. I am one of this People that this year the first time come to your Country to chase storms. Even if the predictions are not good, so our trip will be exciting! We look forward to a beautiful country and lots to discover! The Month of May just begins, and it may be many Surprises. We are confident to be able to see some nice looking Storms.
I hope this year you will also have the opportunity to see a nice Tornado.

Many greetings from Switzerland
Gregory
(please excuse my bad english)

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

Hello Hannah
It's not so bad. I am one of this People that this year the first time come to your Country to chase storms. Even if the predictions are not good, so our trip will be exciting! We look forward to a beautiful country and lots to discover! The Month of May just begins, and it may be many Surprises. We are confident to be able to see some nice looking Storms.
I hope this year you will also have the opportunity to see a nice Tornado.

Many greetings from Switzerland
Gregory
(please excuse my bad english)

Guten tag, Herr Kaeser! I hope you enjoy your stay here in the States, and I'm sure if you haven't been before, you will still see many new exciting things you have never seen before. Good luck chasing, and I hope you get some storms and tornadoes!

Caio

Hannah

 

[Tony Gilbert]

Flying out from the UK on 14th May and departing 28th May this year. The biggest concern ATM is the continued forecast of a 'Cut Off' low pressure to the east. If or when this develops the pattern across much of the USA will become blocked. ATM GFS shows a fairly static position till around 12th May. Many of us will not put any reliability in the GFS after 7 days. Though on this occassion the model has been very consistant with this evolution.
I hope those of us that have taken vacation for this period will still try to make the best of things and hope for an early breakdown of the block.
PS. I can deal with a trashed first weeks weather but really would appreciate a ramped up outlook for the second to compensate!

 

[Matt Hunt]

Well for me, it looks like my season is over. I start grad school on May 13, and realistically May 8 would be my last available day to chase. I thought about heading up to SE Iowa today, but it looks pretty bleak, so I've decided to pass. The next 2 chase seasons are pretty iffy with school. I'll have about a week break between spring & summer semester next year at the end of April, so maybe I'll get a shot then. Not sure about 2015. So I'm hoping 2016 is a great season! I plan on taking a 2 week chasecation that year. Good luck to everyone the rest of the season... I'm sure once I'm off to school it will blow up!

 

[Joerg Kudella]

We´ll be chasing May 16th to June 3rd. This is my 4th chasecation in the States and I´m so looking forward to it. It´s better this way round than the other. Hopefully the afore mentioned block pattern is breaking down in mid May and we´ll get to see nature unleashed!!!

 

[RRogers]

Starting to get the feeling this is how the chase season feels

 

[Joerg Kudella]

Starting to get the feeling this is how the chase season feels
View attachment 7543

Ouch, that looks cold

 

[Zack Hargrove]

Well for me, it looks like my season is over. I start grad school on May 13, and realistically May 8 would be my last available day to chase. I thought about heading up to SE Iowa today, but it looks pretty bleak, so I've decided to pass. The next 2 chase seasons are pretty iffy with school. I'll have about a week break between spring & summer semester next year at the end of April, so maybe I'll get a shot then. Not sure about 2015. So I'm hoping 2016 is a great season! I plan on taking a 2 week chasecation that year. Good luck to everyone the rest of the season... I'm sure once I'm off to school it will blow up!

Grad school is the best time to chase! I have my research assistantship but I am allowed to take off here and there when I want since I can do my research remotely. I'm just playing though, I know everyone's situation isn't the same.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I continue to keep an eye on CFS forecasts for a hint at what may happen past two weeks. Greg Carbin at SPC has put together a great page for viewing severe storm centered forecast output: http://wxvu.net/spc/cfs_scp/

The model has shown some hint of reliability in terms of getting the large-scale patterns for outbreaks when they're within 10 days or so. Although the forecasts are usually just noise past that, if the latest 10 or so days worth of forecasts verifies, it's going to be a very disappointing May for most. With that said, the CFS probably will not show any signal for local events (like OK last Friday). But that is probably what much of the peak of the season is going to be like - needle-in-a-haystack type days. I only hope that the late arrival of springlike temps and the late departure of snowpack in the north will help keep the jet stream from jumping way north into the far northern US or Canada until later in the season. We shall see, however.

 

[Jeff Hawkins]

Screw it all let's just go chase dust devils in China.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c74_1367145591

I saw a dustdevil like that do something similar at a flea market a few years ago...came barreling into the market, ran parallel along a row of vendors selling nearby and I watched it pick up a tent and tables full of t-shirts, fling them up 50 or so feet in the air and right back behind a bunch of trees into the parking lot behind. The t-shirts were okay.

As far as this season goes I've got my chasecation starting May 13th but I'm watching closely to see if I might push it back a week..too soon to say for sure but there doesn't yet seem to be any major pattern changes through 5/14....of course that's at the outer end of the period and we all know how reliable models are that far out, so there's lots of time and room for the dynamics to change. Since there's gonna be gaps between tornado days/chase days, I'm thinking of seeing some sights along the way...any ideas of good places to see?