Chase Case #7

[Shane Adams]

I've learned something from this one. I'm no longer attempting to guess dates, I'm just going to forecast a target and try to nail the good storms. I was doing well sitting in Dallas, and mentioned a possible shift to the north...then I started trying to guess the date, settled on one, then went south to the area that was hit that particular day....which, as it's sounding, screwed me out of a chance to nail the stuff in N TX (whatever that was, I still don't know where in N TX).

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I've learned something from this one. I'm no longer attempting to guess dates, I'm just going to forecast a target and try to nail the good storms.

Yeah ... I'm not going to try to guess dates anymore either ... I was closing in nicely on the target until I started doing that and it screwed me all up. Definitely best just to stick with the forecasting basics here and get as close as possible ...

 

[Scott Olson]

APRIL 21, 1974

F4 In WI and Tornadoes in N TX... Hope this is it, it's near my target.

Yep. Good job. Now to figure out what happened that day..

edit: Duh, you said. tornadoes in N TX.. now where in NTX. That ABI ob at 18z still looks interesting...

Looks like an F1 near Jacksboro, TX. An F2 about 10-15 miles S/SE of Dallas.
Two F2's near Paris and an F1 near Clarksboro. Im pretty happy with my forecast though I wish I would have settled a little further south.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Still think it is April 13, 1974.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Looks like an F1 near Jacksboro, TX. An F2 about 10-15 miles S/SE of Dallas.
Two F2's near Paris and an F1 near Clarksboro.

LOL - so basically if you targeted anywhere north of Austin you hit the target on this one.

 

[Joel Wright]

I got a motel room here in Wichita Falls. I bought a case of beer to drown my sorrows if I missed out....

 

[Shane Adams]

I shoulda just stayed in Dallas....as it were, when I moved south I took myself about an hour SW of the tornado near DFW. This is usually what I do in reality too. Funny how you make the same mistakes whether it's real or not.

 

[Scott Olson]

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm going to Hamilton IL and watching the F3 while you all do whatever in TX...not that I can just switch that far south at this point anyway. Doing this on April 13, 1974 before I was born.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

If that is right I still got a tornado! Red dot almost on the Quad Cities. Well I guess if I go to Halmilton I'm chasing a different day, lol. So I guess I should say screw the dates and towns. I'm back to my chase pick of going to Quad Cities and going east from there...whatever happened happened.

 

[Joel Wright]

Well hell, according to that map, instead of driving 1000+ miles to TX, I could have just rode my bike a few miles to my northeast!

 

[Pat Lawrence]

Scott Olson is the winner!!

Data table:

Pat

 

[Scott Olson]

If that is right I still got a tornado! Red dot almost on the Quad Cities. Well I guess if I go to Halmilton I'm chasing a different day, lol. So I guess I should say screw the dates and towns. I'm back to my chase pick of going to Quad Cities and going east from there...whatever happened happened.

Right! Must have overlooked that, you would have been 25-30 miles to an F2 Tornado.

 

[Glen Romine]

Thread has sort of died, but came across a few accounts from this event, that includes photos, here:

http://www.wx-fx.com/oshgosh.htm

http://www.wx-fx.com/lomira.htm

It would be pretty cool to go back and look at this event in detail if only good data were available, as one of the tornadoes (F3) was apparently an anti-cyclonic tornado, that was shortly followed by a cyclonic tornado tracking just to it's south. The OshKosh tornadic storm looks to have tracked NNE, whereas the other cluster to it's south tracks more NE, which included the anti-cyclonic tornado. So, was that anti-cyclonic tornado embedded within a cyclonic mesocyclone? The motion suggests it as possible, but tough to verify without our beloved Doppler data that we take for granted nowadays. Certainly looks like the deep shear would have been pretty straight-line, which would support splitting storms. Also, why the strong local divergence in tornado tracks between the OshKosh tornadic storm track and the Dodge/Fon du Lac county storm tracks? These storms were apparently ongoing at the same time, so something interesting must have been happening on the mesoscale to support these storm behaviors.

Glen

 

[Karen Politte]

I've learned something from this one. I'm no longer attempting to guess dates, I'm just going to forecast a target and try to nail the good storms.

Yeah ... I'm not going to try to guess dates anymore either ... I was closing in nicely on the target until I started doing that and it screwed me all up. Definitely best just to stick with the forecasting basics here and get as close as possible ...

Well - like I was saying earlier......dates don't mean a thing. To me - at least. I'm not a history buff - if I was I'd open a discussion about a particular date and it'd be called "Date Case" rather than "Chase Case".

The only thing I'm interested in is forecasting to tbe best of my ability with the data given, discussing it with others on the thread, reading what others think, and then seeing who was closest in their reasoning. But - I think I'm just boring.......

KR