CHASE CASE #8

[Verne Carlson]

Thanks Jeff for putting this one together and doing the writeup. I was around Des Moines and caught a couple baby tubes to the north and west. It's interesting to me that I have a mental idea to not go very far east out of my domain even on a chase case. I have a mental hard stop east of I-35.

Matt I just read a paper about how a waning El Nino winter is usually followed by a less tornadic spring. I hope this year follows 1998 and fires up nicely!

 

[Matt Gingery]

Thanks Jeff for putting this one together and doing the writeup. I was around Des Moines and caught a couple baby tubes to the north and west. It's interesting to me that I have a mental idea to not go very far east out of my domain even on a chase case. I have a mental hard stop east of I-35.

Matt I just read a paper about how a waning El Nino winter is usually followed by a less tornadic spring. I hope this year follows 1998 and fires up nicely!

Absolutely Verne! That is one of the interesting aspects to the 1998 season. Just goes to show that an active stormtrack can override El Nino conditions. We are heading into a pattern like that over the next several weeks. I hope this year mirrors 98' as well.

I think I would have scored on this event with additional data, although this did help sharpen my edge.

 

[Ken Bayard]

Thanks Jeff and to Matt for doing other chase cases in the past. I look forward to more "events"

 

[Steve Polley]

Thanks for putting the case up. Verne, I have the same problem east of I-35 myself and I even live next to it.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I precisely failed. I think looking at nothing more than the radar, satellite, and surface obs. from the beginning isn't going to help you very much. The CAP went completely un-noticed. FAIL!

 

[MatthewCarman]

Not sure what I would have done in real life but I could have intercepted the eastern Iowa tornadoes had I continued east. I was 14 years old when this event happened and I do not remember it. I do remember some of the bigger events of the late 90's but not dates to go with them besides the April 8th event of 99. Does anyone know of a site that has events from the 90's listed? The thunderstorm events page starts at 2000.

Thanks Jeff for another great case and thanks for picking an older one. Keep up the good work.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I just found what I was looking for so a site with past 90's events is not needed. It is interesting to see the northeast even had some big events in 98.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Absolutely Verne! That is one of the interesting aspects to the 1998 season. Just goes to show that an active stormtrack can override El Nino conditions. We are heading into a pattern like that over the next several weeks. I hope this year mirrors 98' as well.

I think I would have scored on this event with additional data, although this did help sharpen my edge.

Sure 1998 was active but 75% of the activity occurred in the SE and Midwest away from the Plains, it wasn't any better than 2009 was if you look at old storm chase reports on that year.

Some active winter El Ninos that waned during the spring include 2007, 2003, and 1995. 1998 the El Nino didn't fade till well into summer so I wouldn't expect anything like that.