CHASE CASE #8

[Verne Carlson]

Following the cell from Osceola to Martensdale, IA along I-35. I'll give it a couple more hours to produce and then shoot west to catch the line closer to the surface low - it's on my way back to Denver so that's what I'd likely do in real life.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

I scream north and hit I44, getting to Mt. Vernon, MO by the end of the hour, with the intent to continue east on I44 during the next hour.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I have decided to follow the line of storms east a bit. I am on the tail end storm since I am by Osceola. My confidence is low and I would rather wait but nothing to the SW looks impressive. I will head home to Newton if this line does not do anything in the next hour and then chase only local storms that come near Newton.

 

[David Wolfson]

Heading for Ash Flat, AR, at 21Z. Jeez, pretty but I hate these roads up here....

Actually pretty optimistic about something developing in a few hours up north where I'm headed. Well, the hills sure are pretty anyway .

 

[Brian Stertz]

Instead of racing north for the N.Iowa supercells, I think I'll wait and see if something gets well organized over WC/SW Iowa. Looking at the interesting upper low and the purdy convective spokes. Shear at 20z on Slater profile sure looks good enough for tornadoes...either with the line or with new development. I am holding at Stuart IA keeping a watchful eye on radar trends...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Jeff, could you post radar imagery of MO, please. Thank you.

 

[Bob Hartig]

This scenario is frankly a puzzler for me, and I find Brian's comments helpful since he's been sitting just down the road from me in Stuart and has lots more experience than I do. The shear in this area is excellent, but watching the radar, I haven't been convinced that more convection will fire up behind this immediate line. Maybe I just need to sit tight and bide my time. So after putzing around for a bit, I'm back in De Soto, hoping to learn a thing or two.

 

[Jeff Duda]

21Z update

21Z update​

Upper air (this should give you a clue of the general time period of this case):
300 mb
500 mb
850 mb

Wind profilers:
Lower troposphere
Upper troposphere

Surface:
Northern US
Southern US
Surface Theta-e and Streamline analysis

Satellite:
National IR
Central Plains visible
Mid-Mississippi Valley visible

Radar (with watches):
National
Kansas
South Dakota
Iowa
Illinois

-At 3:58 PM CDT a tornado was sighted near Eagle Grove, IA in Wright County
-At 4:00 PM CDT two tornadoes were reported near Denison, IA in Crawford County

More updates coming soon tonight!

 

[Steve Polley]

Going to slide NE to Osceola, IA and watch the CU to my west.

 

[Brian Stertz]

21z data set and TOR reports have me charging north. The storms up southeast of Sioux City look pretty crunchy...and should get meaner. Time to make a move with the Sac City/Pocahontas IA area as my revised target.

 

[Bob Hartig]

At this point, I'm going with my gut. I think the action is spreading east, and I'm heading that way down I-80, with an eye on dropping down to intercept the isolated cell coming up out of western Wapello County. I live in Michigan, so anything I get from this point will be headed in the general direction of home.

 

[Verne Carlson]

On the last update I was moving up I-35 and hope that I would have made the Eagle Grove, IA tornado. In an hour you can get pretty far in chase mode. I would have surely seen it from a distance at least.

 

[davecarlsen]

Joining Steve Polley in Osceola, IA.

 

[Ken Bayard]

Im heading towards Ottumwa, IA. Following the cells east.

 

[Jason Harris]

For some reason that "wayfaring" map has kept me in the twilight zone of Kansas City, MO, but I have to at least gotten to Cameron and now heading up the 35 before turning NE on the 6 to cruise along towards Milan, MO which should not take more than 2 hours.