Jeff Snyder
EF5
Tough call... Any chance we could get some closer-up / zoomed surface map from OK/TX area? I like the rich gulf moisture in the southern plains, along with nicely backed flow in TX east of the low. Deep-layer shear should be supportive of supercells given 500mb flow out of the SW at 45-50kt above southeasterly or southerly surface winds. Farther north (from central OK northward), the surface flow appears a bit more veered (SSW-SW). So, it appears that the best low-level shear is in TX and southern OK, though that may spread northward and northeastward with time. The low in TX doesn't appear to be too strong, but it's movement to the northeast from 12z-15z indicates pressure falls are occurring across northcentral TX and probably into southern OK. Despite this, pressures at SPS and DFW have not changed from 12-15z, and pressure has actually risen at OKC and TSA/TUL...
Thermodynamically, a nice EML has moved over much of the southern plains, with very steep lapse rates evident (e.g. nearly dry adiabatic from 840-575mb on the OUN sounding). These lapse rates, atop rich low-level moisture, have the potential to create very strong instability / CAPE by afternoon. However, this airmass has also created a capping situation, as evidenced by the 12z OUN sounding. Surface obs don't show much in the way of insolation south of the Red River, with partly cloudy skies in OK. Farther north into eastern KS and MO, the cap situation doesn't appear to be AS bad on the 12z soudings, but shallower moisture and the advection of warmer 850-700mb temps may cause trouble later in the afternoon. Given the rich moisture to the south (e.g >67F Tds) and sufficient shear, I'm happy to see that I won't have to drive TOO far (from OUN). I'm a little concerned about initiation in TX given that there doesn't appear to be a very good source for surface convergence... Winds at AMA have turned to the NE at 15z, and winds to the southwest of the "low" at MAF are southeasterly... The more I look at it, I'm not sure how much I believe the position of that "low", not that it really matters THAT much since it's pretty weak. Regardless, it doesn't look like the front is moving too much farther south in west TX given that AMAs winds veered to the NE at 15z. I'd be interested to see what the LUB/LBB observation is...
Target: Waurika, OK.
Thermodynamically, a nice EML has moved over much of the southern plains, with very steep lapse rates evident (e.g. nearly dry adiabatic from 840-575mb on the OUN sounding). These lapse rates, atop rich low-level moisture, have the potential to create very strong instability / CAPE by afternoon. However, this airmass has also created a capping situation, as evidenced by the 12z OUN sounding. Surface obs don't show much in the way of insolation south of the Red River, with partly cloudy skies in OK. Farther north into eastern KS and MO, the cap situation doesn't appear to be AS bad on the 12z soudings, but shallower moisture and the advection of warmer 850-700mb temps may cause trouble later in the afternoon. Given the rich moisture to the south (e.g >67F Tds) and sufficient shear, I'm happy to see that I won't have to drive TOO far (from OUN). I'm a little concerned about initiation in TX given that there doesn't appear to be a very good source for surface convergence... Winds at AMA have turned to the NE at 15z, and winds to the southwest of the "low" at MAF are southeasterly... The more I look at it, I'm not sure how much I believe the position of that "low", not that it really matters THAT much since it's pretty weak. Regardless, it doesn't look like the front is moving too much farther south in west TX given that AMAs winds veered to the NE at 15z. I'd be interested to see what the LUB/LBB observation is...
Target: Waurika, OK.
