Chase Case #6

[Dustin Wilcox]

With the current chase nearing its climax, it’s not too early to start thinking about the next chase. This chase case presents a “typical” chase day, it’s not a gigantic outbreak and you’ll likely have to work hard to earn that steak dinner, though there will be some treats out there for those who happen to play things right… No need to rush things, I won't give a 15-18Z Update until later Monday evening, and then 20Z updates will be added around midday Tuesday, with 0Z updates and final results Tuesday Evening…
I didn’t want to fill the thread with images so the following link contains the 12Z information….
http://severechase.com/stcc.html

I hope this map deal works…
http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/54216

 

[Andrew Revering]

Unfortunately the SPC 13z map shows the lightning strikes for the next 24 hours, so it gives us some idea of what happened... but with that said, stuff is everywhere so its kind of like deciding which areas are just crap storms and which are chasable, tornadic storms.

I think my eye spent a lot of time with the upper level system to the north, but with very limited moisture, instability, ongoing morning convection, items being out of phase, etc. I quickly discounted the northern chase.

I'm going to head to Midland, TX in hopes of better instability and shear for organized storms via a dryline or some upglide.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

I am waking up in Omaha, NE and having coffee and a stale bagel at a cheap hotel. I have a full tank of gas and my car and I am thinking about heading northwest.

 

[Danny Neal]

Running a little short on time right now so this won't be as detailed as I would like to make it. Being from Chicago, I believe my best chance for severe weather is heading west on 80 into Nebraska. The upper levels show divergence, some decent surface winds , and doable moisture. The early moisture has moved out of the area, leaving some breaks in the clouds which should boost instability a little but nothing even worth considering modest. It is a long shot for Nebraska/South Dakota to have sustained supercells and tornadoes based on the 12Z. But a 16 hour drive round trip is easier to handle than an 30+ hour one to SW TX

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

My dad and I drove down to Denton, TX the night before and stayed with family anticipating a chase today. We are initially targeting Midland, TX as well. Looks like a good W Texas event.

 

[Verne Carlson]

I'm leaving Denver and heading up to central NE where there's good h500 diffluent flow, ample moisture and a weak surface low. Initial target: North Platte, NE

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Is that some bad data on the 700 north of Cuba? Lot of lightning there, too...

I might be heading to GRI and wait for the 1630Z, or wait until then and decide.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

My initial thought is to head west on HWY 412 to Woodward, OK. I have quite a bit of doubt as to what is going to happen this day. My idea is to be in Woodward around noon which will give me plenty of time to adjust west/north/south with the next update.

Moisture is bottled up over Texas, and despite the negative tilt trough which often draws moisture quickly, I am still concerned about moisture return to the north. Because of this I am reluctant to head further north at this point. I am hoping from Woodward I will have enough time to head further north if moisture return appears to be sufficient by 18z. With meridinal flow from central Kansas north I will likely play the dryline near the periphery of the base of the trough where mid-level flow will be more southwesterly.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Since this is virtual Im going to start in Amarillo, TX. Ive never chased TX so lets see if I get lost or not. The AMA sounding was a little better than most and the lapse rates are maxed along with a better chance for some CAPE.

If this were real life I may sit this one out.

 

[Derek Weston]

Ideally... SW OK......(based on 300/500/850) realistically... somewhere a little west of 80/Omaha in Nebraska.

 

[Matthew Fischer]

well taking a look at things looking at the early morning soundings, big curved hodo's in oax, oun, and top. with lapse rates being high all around, also the low 700mb temps to the north will be an early show to the north of i-80. There be more discrete cells to the south of i-80 today. So i'm going to start my day off in Wichita, KS. Wake up around 10 am have a good breakfast then head out with the new data that will come in later to either had north alittle or south.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Starting the day (as I normally would) north of Denver, and will make the drive up I-76/I-80 to North Platte, NE, sit, and wait on 18z data.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Think I am going to hang out west of Sioux Falls SD on I-90. Looks like strong directional shear and just the right amount of moisture pooling along the boundary. The elevated morning convection surely is a prime signal that later on...things may get interesting. This is especially true with the first negatively tilted wave lifting out leaving subsidence and eventual clearing by afternoon and strong shear in place.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

For me-I wasn't able to gather enough info for myself. However I think the moisture down in Texas is going to get drawn up into Kansas, and there interact with the moving air--So I am leaving Kenesaw, Ne and going to Pratt, Ks. Eat some lunch at Sonic.

 

[Corey Sloan]

INITIAL TARGET: Sioux City, IA

Like the Dp's, the lapse rates, wind profiles, capping and the weak low in WY....as well as the promise of some outflow boundaries after the morning MCS just to the north.....just not up to a TX chase today....will check data when I arrive in beautiful Sioux City Most likely not a real chase day for me.