Chase Case 5

[Charles Kuster]

15Z Data​

Here is the 15Z update. Edit: If it is OK with everyone, I will post the 18Z at 10:00pm CST instead, since the 15Z update did not bring significant changes.
Surface​

Central Plains: http://i46.tinypic.com/1674ikj.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i50.tinypic.com/2qalojr.jpg
Northern Plains: http://i46.tinypic.com/2kk5qd.jpg
Midwest: http://i45.tinypic.com/6gaeqd.jpg

Satellite
Central Plains: http://i46.tinypic.com/28bb4nr.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i49.tinypic.com/33njor6.jpg
Northern Plains: http://i48.tinypic.com/2605o2t.jpg
Midwest: http://i47.tinypic.com/10z4uj6.jpg

Radar
Central Plains: http://i45.tinypic.com/30ikjsg.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i49.tinypic.com/294nltd.jpg
Northern Plains: http://i48.tinypic.com/nz5bi1.jpg
Midwest: http://i46.tinypic.com/161e0s6.jpg

Wayfaring Map: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60590

 

[Bob Hartig]

The cloud cover here in North Platte will clear out in a while, but I think I'll get an edge on insolation by nudging west a bit to Lewellen. Besides, I'm intrigued by that patch of cloud streets off to my west in the Nebraska panhandle.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Not a whole lot in the 15z data that leads me to any major decisions. As of 15z I am not happy with the SFC heating taking place further south. I don't think the CAP will be breached on the southern play. I am still heading north and should be in Colby by 17z. One thing that I do see on visible satellite that sticks out is the rolling of the mid level cloud streaks in NE Colorado and SW Nebraska. In my first post I figured this would be the best area to be, and had I stuck with my first instinct I would have originally started somewhere near Salina and already been in position. In a real chase scenario, I don't think that I would drive all the way from OKC to Colby. But since this is a virtual chase and we are only trying to refine our ability to forecast it is what it is. So, I plan on heading west on I-70 from Colby and expect to be in Burlington, Co. by 18z. I will make a quick stop in Burlington for fuel and food and go over the 18z data. I will likely head north on 385 from there and shoot for Holyoke, Co. by 20z or Julesburg, Co. Right at the back edge of the cloud deck. So, to recap, as of 18z I will be in and around Burlington, Co.


Edit: If I miss the update at 10pm, I plan on leaving Burlington and being in the Julesburg, Co. area at 20z. I will sit tight and wait for initiation from Julesburg. This gives me I-76 towards Denver, and I will be a jog down from I-80 near Sterling and if needed I can drop south on Hwy 385. Road network should be sufficient to jump in any position.

 

[Chris Heater]

After looking at the updated data, i'm going to shift west to North Platte, NE. May move down to McCook, NE later but i'm going to wait on that one till the next update

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I'm driving west from Concordia along US-36. Norton, KS seems like a good place to reassess.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Not wanting to go to far west for now I will move to Ogallala, Nebraska and wait for more data.

 

[Charles Kuster]

If there are any chasers in Missouri or Illinois watching the plains setup develop, there may be an opportunity for a local chase setting up, as an MD has just been issued.

Mesoscale Discussion​

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN MO....SRN/CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 1646Z-1815Z
TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MO AND
SWRN/CNTRL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
CURRENTLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SOME CHANCE FOR
TORNADOES GIVEN VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS AND LOW LFC. A WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN
THE WAKE OF LARGE RAIN SHIELD NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN
IL. MEANWHILE...WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE OF TROPICAL/SRN
STREAM ORIGIN WAS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE
OZARKS. COMBINATION OF WEAKLY CAPPED...VERY MOIST...AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...AND ASCENT/STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE...SHOULD FAVOR AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZED WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND IL INTO THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF RAIN SHIELD OVER IL HAS
LOCALLY BACKED FLOW IN THIS AREA AND AREA PROFILER DATA APPEARS TO
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION. AS ACTIVITY
INCREASES AND TAPS INTO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE.

Corresponding radar: http://i50.tinypic.com/33n8f0k.jpg
satellite: http://i50.tinypic.com/11idekn.jpg

 

[Randall Cooper]

OUCH! That hurts knowing I am driving 7 hours to my target when I couldve had a local chase if I had just stayed home. Oh well, Im already 5 hours into the drive, cant turn back now, maybe my chase partner can get something back home . But as for me, Im still liking McCook, NE and will be arriving there in about 2 hours around 1730Z just in time to gas up, grab a snack and check out 18Z data as it rolls in.

 

[scott r currens]

I think I know the date so I am out.

 

[Bob Hartig]

This is probably one of those cases where I head way west only to wind up looking wistfully at my own backyard.

 

[Shane Adams]

I guess I'll head up 287 to Vernon, TX. No clue what I'm doing with these data sets; this is about 1% of what I actually do on chase days. Unless I can guess the date, I'm never even close on these. I guess my chase "style" can't be replicated for case study.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Given how far west 50F dews have made it, I am repositioning west to Limon, CO.

 

[David Wolfson]

Just can't ignore the dynamics and the triple-point play, so I'm staying north. I'm going up the road to Newcastle, WY, for lunch before the 18Z obs.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

This is probably one of those cases where I head way west only to wind up looking wistfully at my own backyard.

when I looked at 00z data i was keeping any eye on the eastern play but since i am in CO i gotta stick to my target. Thinking about heading north to Julesburg and grab some lunch.

 

[Charles Kuster]

18z Data:​

Things are about to get more active! I will be posting several updates throughout the day tomorrow especially during the late afternoon and evening. Good luck!​

Surface
Midwest: http://i49.tinypic.com/xf2a2r.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i49.tinypic.com/im8kuu.jpg
Northern Plains: http://i46.tinypic.com/67nmfa.jpg
Central Plains: http://i47.tinypic.com/55gx1x.jpg
Surface analysis: http://i49.tinypic.com/25oyk9z.jpg

Radar
Midwest: http://i46.tinypic.com/5vvcz9.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i48.tinypic.com/f3gw91.jpg
Northern Plains: http://i47.tinypic.com/122yk5d.jpg
Central Plains: http://i50.tinypic.com/2i6p4xt.jpg

Satellite
Midwest: http://i49.tinypic.com/2qk5b9k.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i46.tinypic.com/akh3lu.jpg
Northern Plains: http://i47.tinypic.com/2vnnpeh.jpg
Central Plains: http://i45.tinypic.com/dzhwn7.jpg

17Z wind profiler: http://i45.tinypic.com/wmfbxd.jpg

Mesoscale Discussion​

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 1814Z-1945Z
...TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NEB/SD AND
A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...
STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS NOW EJECTING NWD ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
LARGER SCALE DEEP WRN TROUGH. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE
WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD ACTIVITY WAS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER SWRN SD AND EXPECT CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS.
STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE SURFACE TO 500MB LAYER WILL
INITIALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LOCALLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
WARM FRONT COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO
DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE LOW WILL ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH TIME.

Wayfaring Map: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60590