Chase Case 5

[Jim Bishop]

Heading south to Scott City, KS closer to the dryline bulge and waiting for more data.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'll take 70 west out of Goodland towards 385 north. I have a feeling I'll want to be much farther north than I am right now.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm moving toward McCook,Ne, I will be there by 21.30.

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm not happy with the surface winds, so I'll head north along US183 towards Clinton, OK and hope for some backing out ahead of the dryline later in the day. However with the strong west winds pushing it, I fear the surface winds will continue to be SSW throughout the day in my target area. Regardless, I'll continue north and stay out in front of the DL and hope for an isolated supercell.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Ok. . .Going from 15z to 18z the dryline has already mixed east past Amarillo. It appears that its going to be a wash out down in the southern play. The dryline is mixing east to quickly. Looking at the vis imagery out of the S Plains it clearly shows a primary dry punch through Tx Panhandle, SW Kansas, and W. Oklahoma. Td's have dropped into the 50's, Pampa is 90/54, then looking west into NM, Td's in the teens and 20's. The initial shot of dry air will allow temps to shoot into the 90's, although if there is any convergence that does develop it should be elevated. The only play in this type of set up is usually at the triple point or along the occlusion further north in Wyoming, W. Nebraska, and NE Colorado. Looks like an occluded low pressure with a dry punch surging east. I honestly hope this isn't an Illinois event, I have honestly never chased that far east. I am heading towards Julesburg, Co. at the moment and may even head a bit further north given the latest mesodiscussion. I will hang in Chappell, Nebraska at 20z. I think I can make it there in 2 hrs, I am currently cruising north on 385 near Wray, Co. as of 18z.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Catching up on updates. As of 15z, stayed put in North Platte, but with the 18z, nudging back west to Ogallala, NE. Will be there around 19z.

 

[Charles Kuster]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA MONTANA
WESTERN NEBRASKA
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EXTREME NORTHEAST WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF REDIG SOUTH DAKOTA TO 60 MILES
EAST OF SIDNEY NEBRASKA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE FROM NERN WY INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
VORTICITY MAX LIFTING NNEWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IS PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD/NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20030.

 

[Charles Kuster]

19Z Update​

Here is a quick 19Z update. I will post 20Z data at about 2:00pm CST and then start a rapid update/live chase at 5:00pm CST. ​

Radar
Central Plains: http://i48.tinypic.com/6z2fr5.jpg
Northern Plains: http://i48.tinypic.com/6yikhf.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i46.tinypic.com/vphgqw.jpg
Midwest: http://i50.tinypic.com/2055vm1.jpg

Satellite
Central Plains: http://i50.tinypic.com/25kn9kn.jpg
Northern Plains: http://i50.tinypic.com/24ctduo.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i48.tinypic.com/1zx8wvb.jpg
Midwest: http://i47.tinypic.com/28lqjdj.jpg

Wayfaring Map: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60590

 

[Verne Carlson]

repositioning a little north from McCook, NE to Ogalalah, NE at the apex of the developing surface low. liking the shear in w NE.

Edit: doubled with the 19z data - keeping an eye on the tower to my west by Julesburg and am ready to jump on it if it becomes surface based!

 

[Bob Hartig]

I honestly hope this isn't an Illinois event, I have honestly never chased that far east.

You couldn't ask for better chasing territory. Great road grids and, at least in most of the state, flat-as-a-pancake visibility. I don't feel at all bad about my target, but if something breaks out in IL, anyone chasing it will have it good. Except for an Alltel data hole through the middle of the state. But maybe the Verizon merger has fixed that.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I'm sitting tight in Dighton, KS working on a farmer's tan. Dryline continues to sharpen up over western KS. With deep moisture across central Kansas into southwest Nebraska I expect the dryline to slow over the next couple of hours. It appears surface convergence and mconv may be locally maximized around the DDC area this afternoon. With H5 winds increasing to 45kts and excellent divergence aloft I am holding on to the hope the cap will break. If the cap breaks I will jump on the storm the deviates to the right. If the cap doesn't break then I will head home. If this were a real chase this would likely be the gamble I would take.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Oh bummer - I just figured out what day this is.... I have to drop out.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Hopping on that cell that popped up on Sat. to my WSW. will track along with it. Going to move a mile or two out of town near Ovid, CO and watch it come my way. A loop of the sat shows storm motion ENE.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'll stay here in Lewellen for the moment. The northeast CO cell is moving in my general direction, so I'll let it ripen a bit while keeping an eye on further developments to the west and north. That rogue cell scooting across northwest NE looks nice, but it's way out of range and in what appears to be largely roadless territory.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I don't know how I skipped over the 19z update. I am hopeful seeing a cu field developing to my southwest along what appears to be a bit of a dryline buldge. I will continue to sit northeast of this area of increasing convergence and wait for something to develop. It definately appears that western Nebraska is a good place to be. If there is a second area of development I believe it will be down here where I'm at.