Chase Case 5

[Charles Kuster]

20Z Data​

Here is the 20Z data. No tornado warnings have been issued yet, so there is still a little time to get to your desired cell or wait for new storms to fire in your area. Rapid update/live chase will begin at 5:00pm CST!​

Surface
Central Plains: http://i45.tinypic.com/2ecgfwy.jpg
Northern Plains: http://i45.tinypic.com/30254ip.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i47.tinypic.com/15psqcl.jpg
Midwest: http://i45.tinypic.com/ou7inb.jpg

Satellite
Central Plains: http://i48.tinypic.com/oidjwy.jpg
Northern Plains: http://i49.tinypic.com/29nh3m8.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i47.tinypic.com/209hnbk.jpg
Midwest: http://i45.tinypic.com/8y7w3t.jpg

Radar
Central Plains: http://i50.tinypic.com/10gzfhf.jpg
Northern Plains: http://i49.tinypic.com/4zztxw.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i47.tinypic.com/abgldf.jpg
Midwest: http://i48.tinypic.com/33v1dus.jpg

Mesoscale Discussion:
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...ERN OK/TX PNHDLS...WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 2037Z - 2200Z
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM
WRN KS SWD TO THE ERN TX PNHDL AND WRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION.

DRYLINE IS MIXING EAST INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WARM SECTOR SOUNDINGS STILL
EXHIBIT SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BUT RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR
ANTICIPATED SURFACE CONDITIONS REVEAL THAT CAP SHOULD BE LOCALLY
WEAKENED FOR STORM INITIATION AFTER 21Z/4PM CDT. MODEST DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF LARGE WRN U.S. TROUGH MAY FURTHER AID STORM
INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ADEQUATE
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION GIVEN 15-30KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY
STRONGER SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN CURRENT STRENGTH OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY
EXHIBIT SUPERCELLS CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.


Wayfaring Map: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60590

 

[Danny Neal]

LOL I just looked at the midwest radar for the first time.... I am out. I know it, in my own neighborhood no less.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Currently trying to turn the corner on the cell NNE of Sterling. Will try to use what limited road options I have to follow the storm as it moves into Nebraska.

 

[Scott Hammel]

Lone cell in NE CO looks to be moving N right up to me near Chappell, so I am going to get on that cell but keep a watchful eye out for cells that get going in the NE panhandle to my W as well. Game on...

 

[Jim Bishop]

Heading southeast to Dodge City, KS.

 

[Jake Wallentine]

Alright...looks like that area of convergence I was watching around Sterling,Co has started maturing into a nice looking cell. I think I would have bit on this as soon as it started going up and moved in to intercept. I'll head from Imperial to Julesburg, Co to see if I can cut it off. Its game time.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I will head toward the cell moving into Southwest Nebraska since it is isolated and not part of the line of storms moving my way. I am moving out of Ogallalla, Nebraska south.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I'm still hanging in Ogallala, NE. Watching the dryline continue to move eastward, noting it along the KS/CO border, and ultra clear skies are not that far away and I don't want to get caught behind the dryline. I'm watching the storm off to the w/sw, and could always shoot west on 80 or up hwy 26, but once that thing get's north of hwy 26 it'll go off into roadless terrain and I'm feeling like there will be addt'l development coming along the NE/CO & KS/CO border. Going to sit tight for the moment as I've got good road options available.

 

[Patrick Kerrin]

I am blasting W on I-80 towards the NE CO convection, say as far as Ogallala, NE (or possibly Big Springs).

I am still keeping an eye for initiation of other DMC along the W edge of the SW NE cu field (particularly in the deeper moisture OGA - IML).

 

[Jeff Duda]

Catching up to the cell in far NE CO going north on 385 as fast as I can. Probably 20 - 30 miles behind it still, but it's the best chance I have right now.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Going west on US-30 from Lexington, photographing trains until I see a tower go up

 

[Skip Talbot]

I'm gonna stroll down 80 towards Ogallala, NE as well and watch that cell coming out of CO.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm drifting from McCook to Imperial,Ne then I'm heading for Grant,Ne trying to intercept the supercell that's moving toward Ogalalla. The Mesoscale discussion mentions a STRONGER SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW: hopefully the supercell is gonna deviate west to me. Let's see what happens.

 

[Randall Cooper]

I just got home from work, so Im gonna play some catch up

I was sitting in McCook, NE when 19Z data rolled out, and based on that, I saw initiation starting in NE CO, so I wouldve moved west to Imperial, NE.

Sitting in Imperial, NE, I look at the Sat/Radar update and I decide to move north to Ogallala, NE via HWY 61 out of Imperial to try my best at an intercept on this maturing cell in NE CO.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

I'm still drifting towards that cell north of Sterling, CO. Going to hang out in Big Spring or Julesburg and attempt to get on that cell. It's isolated and looks good.