Chase Case #3 (2010 version)

Going to play what I think will be a triple point in southern OK, in the city of Ardmore, OK. Hopefully the developing low will not move to fast and take off to the north, but it is hard to tell with one time frame, will have to base any next move off the 12z data.

Chip
 
Stay the night in Texarkana and plan on heading east the next day toward Greenville Mississippi. Expecting severe storms to break out N of I-20.
Chad
 
This looks a lot like one of those day-before the day-before setups where there's a formidable upstream short wave whipping down from the Pacific Northwest. This will deepen the trough and tend to pin its axis along the mountains on case day. Clues are that the moisture trajectory is from the east and east-southeast through OK and southern KS and the deepening low in west TX. IMO case day should see an extended lee-side low from far west TX up east NM and into southeast CO with a dryline more-or-less up the TX-NM and CO-KS border. Start me in Garden City, KS.
 
Quite the challenge with only 00z upper air maps. I'll start in Memphis TN and wait for the next set of data to adjust my position.
 
12Z UA DAY OF:

250
300
500
700
850
925

SATELLITE, RADAR, SURFACE OBS:

12z

SAT
RAD

Surface: S. Plains - Mid MS Valley - C. Plains

12z SOUNDINGS:

DDC
DVN
FWD
ILX
JAN
LZK
OUN
SGF
SHV
TOP

SPC TEXT/WATCHES/MD:

745 AM CDT

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MORNING FROM 745 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.
845 AM CDT

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF


PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS

MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA


EFFECTIVE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL

400 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
 
I like the way things are shaping up. Going to hold steady in Hamburg, Arkansas.
 
Liking my initial position despite the lack of river crossings between Memphis and Greenville. Going to slide west a bit towards Marvell, AR to give myself a SW-NE option if needed after seeing late morning updates. I'm guessing the show will be on by shortly after 12 PM LT.
 
I'm out the door again before sunrise jetting E out of Childress heading toward Ft. Smith, AR. I should be able to get there as the 18Z data becomes available. Probably going to head S from there it appears.
 
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