Chase Case #9

[Paul Austin]

It's about time for another case. I'll start with the 01z day 1 outlook and tornado probs (ie. issued 8pm central time the previous day)to give you an opportunity to pick a starting point realistically based on what you thought might happen based on earlier outlooks. Those of you who live in or near the "Alley" can use the outlooks to decide whether or not you would even venture out for this setup. For those of you who really get into soundings, I've included quite a few here. I also included the Day 1 Discussion, as it discusses a very broad area. If you prefer to do your own forecast or go on your own instincts, feel free to avoid reading the discussion. Also, if you believe the outlooks/discussion might give away the date for you, you might skip over those details.

01Z Convective Outlook
01Z Tornado Probablistic



12Z Observations:

12Z Convective Outlook
12Z Tornado Probablistic
Discussion


Upper Air:
850mb
700mb
500mb
300mb

Surface Observations:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Midwest
Mississippi Valley

Soundings:
Amarillo, TX
Midland, TX
Fort Worth, TX
Norman, OK
Springfield, MO
Little Rock, AR
Nashville, TN
Wilmington, OH
Lincoln, IL
Green Bay, WI
Riverton, WY
Rapid City, SD
Aberdeen, SD
Denver, CO
North Platte, NE
Omaha, NE
Dodge City, KS
Topeka, KS

Visible Satellite Imagery:
National
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Mid-Mississippi Valley

IR Satellite Imagery:
National

Radar Imagery:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Midwest
Mid-Mississippi Valley


If I've messed up any of the maps or given anything away, please PM me, rather than announcing it. Hopefully no one else will notice. I think I've crossed all my t's. I'll try to add anyone to the map who is unable to add themselves, but it might take me a while to get to it. I'll be posting some intermediate updates, but I won't post more than one per day, so take your time. OK, I've given you a lot of data to chew on, so have fun and good luck!

Wayfaring Map

 

[Paul Austin]

Can a Mod change the title?

Well, apparently, Marc posted another case while I was working on mine. This could get really confusing, considering so many of you getting mixed up with different numbered cases

Could a mod please change the title of this case?

It should read Chase Case #10. Sorry, I was a little slow getting this put together.

 

[Andrew Revering]

I think you should just be able to hit Edit and change the title yourself.. no?

 

[Paul Austin]

I can edit the body of the post, but not the title.

 

[Andrew Revering]

Well I'm not thrilled by anything I'm seeing, although I didn't give it a lot of look. I'll plop myself in central Nebraska until I see something more interesting grabbing my eye...

so far all I like is the 500 winds overlaid with some 850 moisture and marginal surface moisture. Surface winds and such have me concerned though.... which makes me think i'm way out of position.... probably an upslope day which I didnt even really look at.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Another interesting case: so far I've not a completely clear situation in my mind; I have to wait for 18Z data. The only thing I'm nearly sure is that it could probably be a Northern Plains case. However I start in Taylor,Ne and see what happens.

 

[Doug Mitchell]

I'm going to start the day in Ainsworth, NE

 

[Josh Richardson]

This day again looks pretty familiar but not sure attm, looks like I will hold tight here in Mason City since its still early and wait and see where the WF and any OFB's end up at.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I'm going to head up to Ainsworth, NE and chill with Doug.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Looks like a semi local chase for me. Cant ignore that ILX sounding nor the well defined warm front across northern IL with dews in the 50s above it and 70s to the south. Directional shear isnt anything to get overly excited about but theres still a window of opportunity.

Will set my 1st target at Rochelle, IL where I will wait for 18z and adjust from there, perhaps to the north or west [looks like some locally backed flow in parts of IA] so being at the junctions of 88 and 39 will be nice.

Sitting at the BP just off the highway.

 

[JF Massicotte]

I'll monitor the situation from Norfolk, NE. Deep moisture will advect in C/NC Ne and richer ground level moisture is in place in IA. That low pressure near the NE/CO/KS border should move NE near this region with the WF. I want to stay not too far from this ground moisture in E NE/IA to promote maybe some lower LCL while shear should be enough along the WF to support rotating not too fast moving storms.


Will have to watch where the WF ends up along with other boundaries. My plan is to wait for any discrete storm to cross the WF.

 

[Randall Cooper]

I'll wait it out in North Platte, NE for now.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Looks like a WF may lift north from the NE/KS border. I'm going to take a little drive up I-76 from Denver and stop in North Platte, NE

 

[Jason Branz]

Think I'll head to North Platte as well...I'm interested to see how that low cloud deck erodes out in western NE, perhaps setting up some sort of boundary out there.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Grand Island, NE, for me. I like the morning sounding in North Platte; it suggests good CAPE later today. Good upper-level support, and it looks like a short wave is approaching from the southwest. Sixties dewpoints are advecting in from northern Kansas. Not a bad place to start and maybe even finish.