2024-05-26 EVENT: AR/MO/IL/TN/IN/KY

This forecast has been like a yo-yo with the system slowing down a bit yesterday, making it look like a QLCS main event without opportunity for recovery. But the initial round of storms made it through 1-2 hours earlier than expected today with clearing behind as the surface low hung back / retreated (?) to SE KS / SW MO. Current observations show a number of discrete supercells on the warm side of an arcing OFB in SW MO as southerlies draw lower to mid-70s dewpoints into a highly volatile environment east of this activity. The two supercells along the I-44 corridor approaching Rolla and Texas County are producing tennis to baseballs.

The recent HRRR and NAM3km show discrete mode being maintained for several more hours at least. The HRRR in particular likes maintenance of discrete activity ahead of a developing QLCS, although HRRR seems biased toward discrete mode. But even the NAM, which is not, likes discrete mode ahead of a trailing QLCS until at least 00Z.
Low level shear is not great but improves across Southeast Missouri with time, so the ongoing cells in SGF's CWA will need that low-level shear tighten up. The cell near Fort Leonard Wood and the cell northwest of Mountain Grove will likely merge and track east-southeast along that CAPE gradient in SE MO. The cell going up near Willow Springs will be one to watch as well as it's by itself.
The cell NW of Mountain Grove made a right turn literally just after the previous post and is now showing low-level rotation, although a new storm is forming out ahead of it, likely robbing its energy. The storm noted in south Texas County near Mountain View looks messy and may actually be splitting with the left split looking destined to merge with the aforementioned storm, and the right split just now going tornado warned. I'm wondering how the one supercell can have textbook appearance on radar while the one just 25 miles away is a messy splitter.
Really exceeding expectations today with mature supercells now in the open warm sector near Carbondale (PDS warning) and Paducah. Meanwhile, a straight line wind event is unfolding east of STL with discrete/semidiscrete supercells still maintaining themselves on its SW flank.
A tornado passed a quarter mile south of home in New Baden on this day. I missed it from not being able to get up to I-64 in time after intercepting the Oakville-Columbia tornado thanks to the fast storm motions. I went out yesterday to take a few aerials of the damage. The tornado and RFD left some interesting and perplexing patterns in the winter wheat crop: