Chase Case #9

[Paul Austin]

15z-16z Intermediate Update

Since you would likely check the progression of things throughout the day, here is an intermediate update. I won't post 18z until tomorrow evening. I want to keep participation as high as possible, even for any who might be getting a late start (that would be myself on almost every case so far ).

15Z Observations:


Surface Observations:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Midwest
Mississippi Valley

Visible Satellite Imagery:
National
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Mid-Mississippi Valley

IR Satellite Imagery:
National

Radar Imagery:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Midwest
Mid-Mississippi Valley

Mesoscale Discussions:
#1 (Graphic Only)

Weather Watches:
#1 (Graphic Only)


EDIT: Wind Profiler data added:

15z Wind Profile


I've only included graphics for the MD's and WW's. I don't want to give the date away for those who might have chased this setup.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I'm just getting in on this case. I am starting the day in Omaha, NE. Still a lot of uncertainty exists as to how things are going to unfold today. I have a close eye on both central NE and IA. I like the deeper moisture in Iowa, and the possibility of an outflow boundary there, however I also am keeping an eye on the surface low on the high Plains and the mid-level impulse which will eject into the Plains later this afternoon.

I am ready to quickly fly east or west once the 18z data comes out. 18z is my deadline to commit to an area.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Decided to stop in O'Neill, NE while enroute to Ainsworth as I think Ainsworth is a bit too far west.

 

[Dann Cianca]

I will also be in North Platte. Anyone want to grab lunch?

Mmm... after a delicious Legend Supreme burger at Runza with Patrick, I've decided to jump back on 80 and head east to the Kearney area. The low clouds are making me a bit nervous. I'll be in the better air.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Think I'll just stay put in Grand Island. No reason to move as yet.

 

[Doug Mitchell]

I'm torn between moving east from Ainsworth to play the Missouri River valley with its nice dews and backed SFC winds or south to the KS/NE border area to play the area with better clearing. In this situation, I think I'll play the eastern target but keep an eye to the south. The cap looks pretty stout down there but there is a shot for it to be broken via good heating + some upper air divergence coming over the Rockies.

Just hope the stuff in Iowa clears out in time. 15z is still pretty early.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

going to stay put in Davenport, I think it will come to me today

 

[Randall Cooper]

I dont think the low cloud cover will be a problem, so I'll stick around in North Platte a little longer.

 

[Matt Gingery]

We have been in Salina and it appears as if some development could take place soon. Winds are backed to our west as the low pushes closer. Along the warm front up north there is some action, but mainly elevated and non tornadic. I anticipate 2 areas of action. Kansas, and further south into Oklahoma and Texas. We are in N. Kansas, and if action takes place we can head north to Concordia, and on up into Nebraska. For now, we are hanging in Salina.

 

[nickgrillo]

I'm just now getting on this one... However, my mind wouldn't have changed based on the 15z data. Assuming I'm leaving DTX by the early morning to chase, then I would head west on I-80 to Davenport, IA to set up. KILX sounding shows substantial >2000j/kg CAPE for a surface-based parcel, represenitive of the warm sector environment south of the surface warm front. Assuming the warm front will continue to lift northward during the afternoon and insolation/diabatic surface heating will generate enough instability for surface-based storms. Sufficient low-level shear along the warm front will also increase the chance for a tornado with any surface-based convection.

Hence, Davenport, IA along I-80 (the western fringe of the eastern 5%) would be my initial target.

 

[Jason Branz]

Ya know, I think I'll wander east a little bit, but not more than 20 or 30 miles. The sfc winds are definitely picking up, and I like the localized backing there in northern KS. I'm still intrigued by the erosion of the low clouds, so I'll sit at the edge for the time being.

 

[Corey Sloan]

INITIAL TARGET: Hamburg, IA

I like the temperature/Dp's in this area as well as the wind fields and close proximity to the frontal boundary and potentially outflow boundaries. The soundings out of OAX are decent this early in the game. Will sit here in SW IA with good road structure and play the SE side of the SLGHT Risk area and 5% TOR area to see what happens. Albeit, the better parameters may be along the warm front in central NE. Say somewhere like North Platte

 

[Verne Carlson]

Arrived at North Platte, NE - am continuing east on I-80 and heading to Kearney, NE. May head southeast from there.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am going to get away from all that cap and get to a softer spot in E.Iowa and maybe catch a supercell or two on the nice boundary later on. I am going to plunk down in Iowa City IA. Meet you soon Nick. Drive safe !!

 

[B. Kendrick]

I think i'll set up in hastings Nebraska and await further details.