Chase Case #9

[Bob Hartig]

I think I'm going to scoot northeast from Grand Island and toss my hat in with the Norfolk, NE, crowd. The low is moving right along, and even though the winds are backing right now in Grand Island, I don't want to get left behind. Actually, I've considered Sioux City, because I have a hunch things are going to play out in northwest Iowa, but I'm not ready to commit to quite that far northeast until I've seen the 18z run.

EDIT: Whoops, speaking of the 18z run, looks like it arrived while I was pulling the trigger. Now I'll take a look at it and see whether I made a smart move based on the 15z and morning data.

 

[Jason Branz]

Definitely like that moisture moving northward through NE. We're heading east toward GRI, then cutting NE on 30 to Columbus, NE, with an eye to the west the whole time. I'm tempted to stay around Kearney, but I think we need to be a bit farther north and east. So Columbus it is.

 

[Joe Karel]

I just can't decide where exactly to move. I'm currently sitting in Des Moines Iowa and I'm thinking to move alittle West and North to the Denison area..But i think im just gonna freeze up and stay in Des Moines Iowa getting ready to move any direction. Final answer.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Okay, change in plans. I'm not headed for Norfolk, I'm headed for Greeley, NE, 50 mile to my north instead of 115 miles to my north-northeast. Seems to be no lack of backing winds, higher dewpoints are advecting in, and it looks like there's a weak dryline extending up into NE, albeit well to my west. Most importantly, I don't like that cirrus shield that's moving northeast toward Norfolk, whereas, while the tail end of it will probably still be in Greeley when I arrive, it'll be leaving the area shortly, leaving me in the midst of a cumulus field and otherwise clear, moist air. And that I like.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

After seeing 18z data I am flying east on I-80 into central Iowa. I like how moisture is pooling in southern Iowa and the surface map shows pretty good convergence along the outflow boundary draped northwest to southeast across the east half of the state.

I have had great success with outflow boundaries (6/1/99, 5/1/03, 5/24/08), so I will try to intercept a storm that fires on the boundary. The 15z profiler showed 30-40kt mid-level flow out of the southwest. This is strong enough to help venilate the updrafts, but not too strong, allowing a storm to anchor on the boundary. I wouldn't be shocked to see east or southeast storm movement if a storm could anchor on the boundary. Outflow boundaries are tornado racetracks! Bye bye Nebraska, hello Iowa!

I guess Newton, IA is my next target, and I will refine my target from there. I have a good two hour drive ahead of me, and I will be making this jaunt east as short as possible.

 

[Mark Farnik]

After having a nice lunch with Dann and Patrick in North Platte, and after seeing the 15z data, I moseyed on down 1-80 to Grand Island, NE. Now having seen the 18z data, I've spotted an area of agitated cu developing to my east in the vicinity of York, NE, so I am heading there and am going to go find Marc and harass him .
I'm really liking the tongue of upper 60's dews that have nosed into south central/southeastern NE and the resultant low t/d spreads, which will create favorable LCL's for tornadic activity. Also digging the backing winds occurring from GRI north and east.
I will hold down the fort in York for the time being and monitor this cu field for initiation, but am also keeping a wary eye to the west/north and am prepared to blast north on Highway 81 to Columbus.

 

[nickgrillo]

Looks like surface-based convection is firing south of the surface warm front in central IA. The surface obs show the warm front curving ESE across central IA into northern IL, with strongly backed surface flow enhancing low-level shear. Moisture pooling and low-level vorticity along the boundary will also enhance tornado potential with surface-based convection.

I would stick close to eastcentral IA along I-80 and wait for storms to cross the boundary. I'd probably head a bit further west, perhaps towards Iowa City and go from there as convection develops.

 

[JF Massicotte]

Hum... tough call for me... I see three potential target...

Iowa I feel is 4 to 6 hours away for me so I'll leave this target. I see on VIS a subtle boundary along I-80 and the WF near my position near Norfolk.

I'll keep my initial target and live or die with it. I stay in Norfolk unless I see some serious reason to move south on VIS in the next hours. I'll monitor every update (sfc and vis). If CU field becomes serious along that dubtle boundary down south, I may consider making a move.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Well it is 18z, and we are in Olathe just to the SW of Kansas City. We ate at Haywards pit BBQ an hour ago and now we have decided to head southwest on I-35 towards Emporia. Initiation is beginning to take place across Central Kansas as of 18z, and our thoughts are to wait in Emporia for a bit and fuel up and be fully equipped with everything we need. After sitting put in K.C. for some great BBQ, our thought is further south maybe in the Chanute area. We will head down I-35 bypassing Chanute, and head for Wichita. If this doesn't happen today across Kansas/Oklahoma, it will happen tomorrow with this deep amplitude trough located out across the SW Desert Region. If we get a shortwave disturbance out ahead of the main trough axis in the next few hours our thought is to hang around Wichita Ks. If nothing happens, then we will just stay the night and chase tomorrow. There is alot of streaming cumulus development, and a few isolated tstorms across central Kansas. Maybe a slight disturbance aloft will kick off some isolated cells. The dryline is still hanging way back to the west. This may not happen for us today until later in the evening. I am staying in the Wichita/Emporia area with the option of heading in any direction within 1 hour from our location. The only WWA in effect are severe storm watches, and that leads me to believe some approaching boundary action has to begin to happen from Central Kansas and backbuild into Oklahoma, and W Texas. We will see, otherwise we will be chasing this event more seriously tomorrow.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I like the parameters in ern NE and nudging a touch northeast up hwy 30 to Columbus, NE.

 

[David Wolfson]

It's tempting to head a bit southwest, but I don't have a good reason to doubt my sense right now that the best storms are going to be in northeast NE and I will probably end up in Iowa. So I'll hang here in Wayne, NE, but am prepared to head upwind if something really good starts up to the southwest.

 

[Dann Cianca]

Arrived at North Platte, NE - am continuing east on I-80 and heading to Kearney, NE. May head southeast from there.

I'm hanging tight in Kearney. Come to think of it, it may actually been breakfast we ate in North Platte. Hmm.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

Huge looking in NW Ohio-too far to get too now--I like the way the Satellite map and winds look a bit West of me--So leaving Davenport, Iowa for Iowa City, Iowa. I think something will happen along I-180

 

[Josh Richardson]

Well its 19z and Im in Iowa Falls IA, Im a little further north of where many people seem to be going in IA but Im going to hang on the northern end of the NW-SE oriented WF and play with the cells that have popped within the last hour or so to my west. I can move with these if need be or I can slide down to I-80 also if I need to so I feel Im good shape here and on top of that only 55 miles from home!

 

[Doug Mitchell]

Bahh, after the 15z update, I went on about my reasoning for E NE but I forgot to mention where I would be heading. Put me in with the Norfolk, NE crowd.