Chase Case #9

[Brian Stertz]

Looks like I may need to get just on other side of boundary (cool side) so will drift on up towards Cedar Rapids IA and hold there in the early afternoon. I would expect a red box out very soon for the boundary development by late afternoon. Just need to jump on them early in case they become outflow dominant HP's as time goes on.

 

[Matthew Fischer]

adam and i are heading on i-380 towards Cedar Rapids, IA. Maybe head as far north as Waterloo, IA. We'll see at the next update.

 

[Jim Tang]

Not liking the cold outflow boundary at all. Also not liking the convection from IA-east; could be some problems with subsidence in the wake of whatever is causing that convection. But I really have no choice. Looks like I will be targeting Yankton, SD attm.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Looks like I may need to get just on other side of boundary (cool side) so will drift on up towards Cedar Rapids IA and hold there in the early afternoon. I would expect a red box out very soon for the boundary development by late afternoon. Just need to jump on them early in case they become outflow dominant HP's as time goes on.

Actually the way the mid-level flow is oriented to the boundary I would think the precip would fall to the northeast while the storm would drift east or slightly south of east. I think you could have classic supercell mode for the first couple of hours before they transition into HP. I am not 100% certain, but I think this is a possibility.

 

[Marc Austin]

Well, I'm not entirely sold on the IA target, despite the meso discussion. I will cautiously proceed east on 80 towards Omaha keeping an eye on the sky for any towers. I'm looking forward to that 21z update and hoping a new MD is issued for eastern NE/northeast KS. The daytime heating and mostly clear conditions will have lead to quite a bit of CAPE in this region. If the cap does weaken, tornadic supercells should develop.

 

[John Farley]

I will resist the urge to join the mass movement to the Cedar Rapids-Waterloo area and continue sitting tight in Peru, IL. I like the convergence I see there, and the evident cloud line along the warm front, not to mention the nicely backed surface winds just north of the front. I think that things will fire in that area before dark and if they do, the setup will be good for supercells, so I am content to stay put rather than drive 3 or 4 hours for what may not be a better setup.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm going to hold tight in Greeley, NE. A mesoscale discussion hasn't changed the conditions that drew me there, and in any case, central Iowa is beyond my reach within a practical time frame. I'll wait for the next update before making any course adjustments, although at this time, sitting in a cumulus field, I'm also keeping my eyes on the sky.

 

[Paul Austin]

21z Update

Here's your 21z update. You still have about five hours of daylight left. 0z will be posted tomorrow evening and results either very late tomorrow or the next day. Good luck!

21Z Observations:


Surface Observations:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Midwest
Mississippi Valley

Visible Satellite Imagery:
National
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Mid-Mississippi Valley

IR Satellite Imagery:
National

Both 20z and 21z radar images have been included, since you would probably take extra care at this hour to pay attention to any storm motion and development.

Radar Imagery:
20z Northern Plains
21z Northern Plains
20z Central Plains
21z Central Plains
20z Southern Plains
21z Southern Plains
20z Upper Midwest
21z Upper Midwest


Wind Profiler:
21z Central CONUS Wind Profile

Mesoscale Discussions:
#4 (Graphic Only)
#5 (Graphic Only)
#6 (Graphic Only)
#7 (Graphic Only)


Weather Watches:
#4 (Graphic Only)
#5 (Graphic Only)
#6 (Graphic Only)
#7 (Graphic Only)
#8 (Graphic Only)
#9 (Graphic Only)


Sorry for the late posting. I had to take some extra time to remove radar imagery from the WW graphics by hand. The archived watch box graphics included radar returns that wouldn't yet be available - very late with respect to the watch postings, and I didn't want to give anything away.


Chaser Positioning Map

 

[Doug Mitchell]

Racing east to try and catch up to the storms developing in W Iowa along the WF.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Well since my position before the updates was Iowa Falls that would mean I was already in intercept mode on these storms in the 20z radar image for Central IA and the same as I drift SE for the 21z image. Storms have congealed into a decent sized cluster but with my position on the back edge of that hopefully something is provided a decent view, Im pretty much stuck with this stuff now as it will take too long to get back to the Western IA stuff now.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I start moving toward Norfolk,Ne

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am in position east of Newton, IA to pick a storm and intercept it. Without visual aid and real-time radar I have no idea which storm is going to produce. I would obviously look for a supercell that is anchored on the boundary.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Sticking to my guns and still sitting in O'Neill, NE. I like the developing cu to my west and I have a road option SE if I need to head that way.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Having successfully found Marc and harassed him for a few hours in York, with the arrival of the 1930z data we parted ways. I have made my way to Fremont, NE and am scanning the increasingly vigorous cu field for any signs of initiation. Have noticed that convection has erupted over the Sandhills, so I'm guessing mid-level cooling is moving in from the west, and as such I am anticipating initiation will occur within the next two hours over eastern NE. And if all else fails, I can always jump across the river and get on the WF storms in NW Iowa, but for now I'm hedging my bets on Nebraska.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Am liking the line of thickening CU on the northern plains visible sat. Still some time to reposition from Kearney to Hastings, NE