Chase Case #9

[Paul Austin]

Final results for May 21, 2004 follows:

Several of you picked up on the outflow boundary potential in IA long before it materialized. I included the late radar and sat images to illustrate the very late initiated cells in ne NE for those of you who waited patiently. (I also find the late afternoon vis sat images just gorgeous with the setting sun. The convection complete with overshooting tops just pops off the screen.) Note also the splitting sups in KS on the radar images. Forecast afternoon hodographs might have been nice to see if trying to make a decision on KS.

Final Observations:

Visible Satellite Imagery:
1z Northern Plains
1z Central Plains

IR Satellite Imagery:
2z National

Radar Imagery:
1z Northern Plains

1z Central Plains
2z Central Plains

2z Upper Midwest

For those of you hanging out patiently in ne NE, the potential did eventually materialize:

Late Mesoscale Discussion:
(Graphic Only)


Archived SPC Reports:
(Graphic Only)
Link to Archive with included text and times

So how did you do? Did some of you chase this actual event? Have pics or video? Do post!

I found this to be an interesting case as you watch the progression of 1z to 12z SPC Convective Outlooks to the actual results:

1z Convective Outlook
12z Convective Outlook
12z Tornado Probabilities

There were 27 tornado reports, mostly in IA, on a slight risk day. Note the tornado void in IA on the Tornado Prob map. The marginal nature of the earlier outlooks probably kept many chasers home this day. I didn't chase this day but probably would have hung back in NE somewhere.

I hope you enjoyed this case. It was fun to put together and watch unfold. Enjoy your steak...or Happy Meal, whatever the case may be . Thanks for participating and see you in the next one!

Chaser Positioning Map

 

[Leah Robertson]

*Looks at 21Z update*
I'm really hoping the dryline is going to fire up soon....looking at the WV, this seems like a distinct possibility. Looking at the radar and the surface observations, I'm torn on whether to head north or south. On one hand, storms are initiating nicely along the warm front closer to Iowa but on the hand, I'm really liking the deeper moisture closer to the Kansas/Nebraska border and the winds are veering more over that location than where I'm currently at. Wow, this is challenging... If storms do fire along the dryline, I'm going to want to head further south. The 70F dewpoint in south-central has caught my eye with clearing skies and temps in the 80s. Ok, I'm going to head south back from Columbus, NE to York, NE.

*Looks at 0Z update*
Again, the surface observations over south-central Nebraska has caught my eye....particularly in the area where one station (88F/57F) has the winds coming from the southwest and the station just east of there is reporting a dewpoint of 70 with winds out of the southeast near Grand Island. I'm going to go ahead and remain in York, NE and see if the dryline decides to get active.

Edit: Whoops, the results got posted as I was replying. Looks like a bust for me, haha. Great learning experience. Thanks for putting together this chase scenario, Paul. =)

 

[Derek Weston]

For those that played the Cedar Rapids/IC area.... (southern supercell)

The town of Palo Iowa was hit by a tornado (approx 5 minutes west of NW Cedar Rapids)

Here is a picture of the storm I took sitting south... (a little too far South -- bottom center of the picture is where the tornado would be) This is back in my "just go and drive out towards the storm" chasing days.

This was an F3 storm...

Link: (with photo/reports)
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2004-05-21-iowa-tornado_x.htm

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Thanks Paul for this case! I was in Norfolk and probably I would have nailed the Hadar tornado; for a while I thought the Low pressure wouldn't have produced anything...
I found some interesting pictures on the web: the picture under here is about the Dow intercept of the tornado; I found on the web a link with tornado pics, taken by stormscenes.com: take a look.

http://stormscenes.com/nen-052104a.shtml

Let's go ahead with another case!

 

[Scott Weberpal]

I was waiting for someone else to notice that this case was the same as case 1...

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=18965&page=13

 

[Josh Richardson]

I'd like to know how I didnt notice it!!! I nailed it the first time, with targeting near Bradgate and I have no idea how I couldnt tell it was the same via radar. Anyway, I still made out ok and caught TOR's again but its funny I ended up chasing both of these just a tiny bit differently without even noticing it was the same setup.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Intercepted the Hadar, NE tornado (again).

 

[JF Massicotte]

Wow

My best Case up to date, initial target was Norfolk and stayed at Norfolk and it finally paid out since I intercepted the Hadar Tornado.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Holding in Columbus probably did me well since I would like to think that I would have opted to make the short drive north to get the Hadar storm.

 

[Adam Lucio]

More than likely got some sort of severe weather, did I head west in time to make the naders in IA? Who knows...it was all a WF gamble for me.

 

[Paul Austin]

I was waiting for someone else to notice that this case was the same as case 1...

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=18965&page=13

Ha! I posted it and didn't notice. I missed out on the first one somehow. Well, I guess some events might be worth reinvestigating. I'll be more careful with any future cases I post. I have a few in mind that have not been posted, but I'm booked up for the next couple days.

So did anyone participate in both Chase Case #1 and Chase Case #9 without noticing something extremely familiar?

 

[Bob Hartig]

Steak for me in Hadar. I'm getting to know this town pretty well. I did not recognize this case as a repeat of number one until the very end, when I looked at the storm reports and got a sudden sense of deja vu. I'm kinda pleased that my moves didn't deviate much from the first time.

Let's do this one a few more times. I'd like to get it to where I'm setting up my operations in the steak house in Hadar.

 

[David Wolfson]

I did better the second time around , "intercepting" the Bradgate storm. Didn't notice the resemblance to Case #1 -- duh. Thanks again, Paul!

 

[Verne Carlson]

No tornadoes for me in Beatrice, NE on this one.
In the words of Charlie Brown "I got a rock.."

 

[Jim Tang]

I was waiting for someone else to notice that this case was the same as case 1...

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=18965&page=13

I had a feeling this case was May 21, but I was skeptical because I remembered that that older case was the same date.