Chase Case #9

[Dean Baron]

I dont like Nebraska any more. The wind field looks horrible and with the storms firing in western Iowa I will go after those. by 20z I would've been paying close attention to satellite and radar trends for those storms and drifting east on US 275 from my target of Norfolk, NE hopefully in position to intercept by 21z. By 21z I would've been fully commited to those storms and figuring out the best way to get to them. I have a feeling eastern Nebraska may go later but I also have a feeling it wont and even if it does, the storms arent going to be supercellular. I'll go after whats already there. New target is Denison, IA.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

My dad and I have decided to drift east to Norfolk, NE where the cu field is a bit thicker.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I've been sitting in Columbus for a while, gassed up, but that heavy lunch at Runza's with Dann made me sleepy, so grabbed a quick nap. Was very happy to awaken to a building cu field that put a smile on my face. I'm still very content with my location with winds still backed and good moisture. Going to be looking for storms to fire sw'rd through east central Nebraska. Road options where I am are good, so going to hold in Columbus NE and continue to play the waiting game.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Still holding in Guymon, but the dryline is quickly approaching from my west and I will likely need to move a little bit to the east to stay ahead of it.

 

[David Wolfson]

Nothing much is happening to the southwest of me in Wayne, NE, and as of the 20Z radar I was able to get storms are starting to develop across the river in Iowa east of me. The environment is favorable, so... east it is. By 21Z I am across the river topping off fuel and etc. on the south side of Sioux City.

Storm motion is a rather leisurely 20-25 kts. just about directly east, and I don't want to get too far north, so my 00Z target is Fort Dodge, IA. The storm to my southeast, though, bears watching and may pull me down there.

 

[Jason Branz]

Still in Columbus NE and I don't think we're going to move yet. I like the subtle convergence line that runs from just east of GRI NNEwd to south of Norfolk, and the Cu field that is still building over the NE quarter of NE. We'll sit here for a while, maybe drift north and find a high spot to toss the football around and watch the sky.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Waiting in Ames, IA for the show to begin!

 

[Jeff Duda]

Not really liking my position in far E IL anymore. Not really confident that the boundary will blow anything up, especially since no WW are out yet (only an MD). If nothing goes up within the next hour, I'll start heading back along I-74 and then up I-39, hopefully catching any action moving in from the west. I may not have enough time, though.

 

[Joe Karel]

well at this point im sitting up in Waterloo, IA, under that mess of a storm. Unless it really looked good while under that, i think I would just head far enough West to get out from under that and try to have a chance on the storms firing to the west or maybe wait and see if anything else fires. I'll think I'll go as far west as the 35 and 20 intersection so I could head more west or possibly south.

Edit: after looking at the radar more closely maybe I should have tried to just get into better position on the south western most cell..but we'll see i guess

 

[Bob Hartig]

Mmm, not liking this very much. I think I need to nudge east a bit. I want to stay in the center of the cu field and moisture. I'm tempted to join the gold rush up to Norfolk, maybe even mosey up to the backing winds in South Dakota, but right now, nothing strikes me as compelling enough to make a major move from my present area. One thing I notice, though, is what looks like some agitated cumulus along a possible weak, roughly N-S boundary to my east, extending down into KS. So I'm going to set up shop on US 81 just east of Platte Center.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

Moving north a bit towards Cedar rapids, Ia

 

[Buddy W Bradley]

After studying the 21z data I have moved south of Grand Island NE along hwy 281 across the Platte River to a small town called Doniphan. All is quiet here and I am enjoying the sights and sound of nature. (Had to get away from the hustle and bustle of the big city). I am gonna set up shop here and wait for something to pop to my west or southwest. The air is juiced and stiff southerly breeze has pushed temps into the mid 80's and the dews are in the low to mid 60's. I am forecasting sup's in the s. central NE region between 22z and 00z. The storm motions will be just north of east at about 30knots. I am getting antsy knowing this is gonna be a great evening!

 

[nickgrillo]

Looks like surface-based convection is firing south of the surface warm front in central IA. The surface obs show the warm front curving ESE across central IA into northern IL, with strongly backed surface flow enhancing low-level shear. Moisture pooling and low-level vorticity along the boundary will also enhance tornado potential with surface-based convection.

I would stick close to eastcentral IA along I-80 and wait for storms to cross the boundary. I'd probably head a bit further west, perhaps towards Iowa City and go from there as convection develops.

Looks like I'm in perfect position to catch the southern-most supercell moving near I-80, which is obviously surface-based and right on the warm front -- ingesting a very healthy amount of low-level vorticity. I wouldn't be surprised if this storm was producing tornadoes at the time of the radar image.

 

[John Farley]

Having passed on the chance to blast west into Iowa, I am still stubbornly hanging out in Peru, IL. Sharp boundary is still in that area as of 21Z, showing up nicely on both the surface data and the satellite. I am encouraged by the MD but would have liked to see a red box by now - but I still think initiation is possible by sunset and if it happens, I expect supercells with a good chance of a tornado or two on any cell right on the warm/stationary front.

 

[Dann Cianca]

Still in Kearney, Nebraska ... it's Kearney or bust!