Chase Case #9

[Marc Austin]

I think I'm gonna mosey on up to Hays, KS. I see the warm front is slowly progressing northward in NE and I don't want it to get too far out of reach in case convection starts firing there. I also believe storms will fire in KS further west, so I may as well head that direction.

Edit: Think I'm actually going to turn back and head north toward York, NE from Salina. This way, I can still catch up to anything that gets going in central KS later in the day while monitoring the system in Nebraska nearby.

 

[Dean Baron]

I'll stick in Grand Island, NE for now, looking at maybe moving a bit northeast but we will see. I dont like those surface winds, hopefully they get better as we get closer to initiation. For some reason I have my doubts though...

 

[Joe Karel]

after starting on this one late, I think ill head from Mankato MN to to Des Moine Iowa and see what i can get.

 

[Paul Austin]

Additional 15z Details

Here's something I forgot to post in the intermediate update. It probably won't change things for most of you. But here's some wind profiler data:

15z Wind Profile

I'll also add it to the original 15z update page.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm in Taylor,Ne now and I think I'm gonna move further east but it's still too early; I wait for 18Z data and see the new anlysis.

 

[Matthew Fischer]

well since i'm probably was up watching the storms come in this morning. i would probably be waking up in adam truck and finding out where exactly we are now! but i would play along the gust front/ outflow boundry from the mcs that went though that morning thought chicago area! i would stay around i 80 to i 88 maybe into iowa.

 

[Matt Gingery]

After the 15z wind profile chart, I am starting to think this will be a localized event. Its beginning to look as if the trough axis has a positive tilt to it, with the exception of maybe areas of NE Nebraska and the East half of Oklahoma, maybe even SW Missouri late. I am leaving Salina and heading towards Kansas City. This may be a bust for me, but it also gives me the option to head north towards Omaha, and south towards Joplin. This is a huge risk, and I should be in K.C. by 18z if I hurry.

 

[Patrick Martin]

After having lunch with Dann, going to move east on I-80 to Grand Island, NE as this puts me further east into the deeper moisture and leaves good road options.

 

[David Wolfson]

The warm front has made substantial northward progress into northeast NE, along with the moisture. Plenty of heating and the hint of a frontal wave forming down near McCook definitely point north of my current location in Lincoln. I'm packing up for Wayne, NE, northeast of Norfolk, arriving by 18Z after lunch on the way.

 

[mikegeukes]

I am too lazy to drive to Nebraska, I will hang out at Peru, Illinois instead.

 

[John Farley]

My initial thinking after looking at the 12Z data was Peru, IL. This is close to the warm front and offers options to move either N-S or E-W as needed on interstate highways. After looking at the 15Z data, I see nothing to make me change that thinking. Looks like there is good convergence there and it is right on the southern edge of the overcast area north of the front, with good clearing to the south that should allow lots of nice warm juicy air to get drawn in and over the WF.

 

[JF Massicotte]

Holding tight in Norfolk, NE until the next update. I don't like the veering winds in the warm sector but still have some hope for the boundary...

 

[Paul Austin]

18z Update

Finally, the much-anticipated 18z data set. I noticed many of you have been enjoying a nice 3 hr brunch. Hope you enjoyed it. Now we approach crunch time.

18Z Observations:


Surface Observations:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Midwest
Mississippi Valley

Visible Satellite Imagery:
National
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Mid-Mississippi Valley

IR Satellite Imagery:
National

Radar Imagery:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Midwest
Mid-Mississippi Valley


Weather Watches:
#2 (Graphic Only)
#3 (Graphic Only)
#4 (Graphic Only)


What, no one is chasing in Virginia today? Well, you would have to wade through all the MD's and WW's that don't concern you on a regular chase day anyway. I eliminated most of the extras to save you (and me) the trouble You've got about three hours until the next update. Happy hunting!

Chaser Positioning Map

 

[Josh Richardson]

Glad I stayed close to home, I have been able to chase the early day storms within 60 miles of my house just for fun. Now Im taking off to my SW as it appears an OFB has sparked a few cells(very small right now) down near the Ft. Dodge area. Gonna make a quick jaunt down Hwy 65 and let them come east to me just a tad...I will be there shortly.

 

[Marc Austin]

Well, the 18Z update is showing some nice clearing over western KS/NE. I can't help but notice that outflow boundary in the upper midwest. I have a feeling that's going to kick off some tornadic supercells later in the day. I'm still happy with my decision to stay in York, NE at this time. Storms should begin forming over W/Central KS and south-central NE over the next few hours (I hope).