11/14/05 (late)-11/15/05 NOW: Midwest-Mississippi Valley

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Cells around the Ohio/Mississippi confluence area are little bit better organized and discrete and look as if they're trying to hook. With this area being closer to the surface low, I would expect this area around Pudacah/Cairo vicinity to be under the greatest threat right now.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?PAH

 

[Melissa Moon]

Looks like the cells in Missouri SW of St Louis are tornado warned. Doppler seems to be picking up a bit of rotation, though I don't find it to be too impressive. It also seems like it is beginning to right-move slightly. Still in developing stages I think, but perhaps we'll have our first report of the day soon.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Another area to keep an eye on in the near term is northern MS / SW TN. Convective parameters have been building in this area over the past couple of hours, and now some isolated convection initiating out ahead of the leading band. Looks like this may be a prime area for the system to tap into richest boundary layer.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Wow, that's amazing that schools are letting out early because of the potential of bad weather of the "summer-type" form as opposed to the fine, powdery stuff. Can't say as that I can ever remember that happening.

And speaking of which; isn't this one of the latest dates in the year where a "HIGH" forecasted Convection Outllook has ever occured?

One final note; note what the Day 1 Outlook would have looked like if it would have existed for the March 18th, 1925 Tri-State Tornado in the link below:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/1925/nvt_body1.php

Eerily similar to today's, isn't it?

If it IS similar to the 1925 event, then MI would be the one to see the long-tracked violent TOR. Remember that the 1925 tornado developed very near the cold front / warm front / SFC low intersection(tripple point) - which is forecast to move through southern lower MI. Also, note that temps right before the tornado were in the upper 50's to lower 60's - not exactly "unstable" (I'm sure lapse rates made up for it, but I can't help but feel a lack of threat with temps in the 50's).

I'll see if I can pull up some archived data for that date from NCEP.

Here we go, 8AM SFC maps for March 18 and 19, 1925:

March 18, 1925 - 8AM: http://www.waveformpc.com/pics/1925_18_8AM.GIF
March 19, 1925 - 8AM: http://www.waveformpc.com/pics/1925_19_8AM.GIF

As you can see, 1925 didn't feature nearly as deep of a SFC cyclone, and the low tracked much further east. You can also see that the tri-state even occured NORTH of the SFC low track...

 

[rdale]

"You can also see that the tri-state even occured NORTH of the SFC low track..."

I believe that would be an artifact of the sparse data... I can't see how that could happen otherwise, and I've never seen any report on the event that didn't say the tornado happened coincident with the low.

 

[Bill Tabor]

So far mostly linear mode although some cells are starting to show strengthening and supercell characteristics. For more northern areas I am concerned about dewpoints and instability producing much. As stated cut off all areas at ~50 dewpoints - perhaps a stray 45 F. That reduces a lot of severe risk. A lot of that area is where the short wave and upper jets are focused so am wondering if there will be some amount of decoupling between the upper dynamics and stronger southern dewpoints, and unstable air.

The air in the center though should get a bit of both worlds such as parts of MO, TN, southern IN, IL, western KY and maybe a bit further south although they lose dynamic forcing quickly as you move south.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Let's try to keep all discussion about this event, please. Thanks!

 

[Robert Dewey]

"You can also see that the tri-state even occured NORTH of the SFC low track..."

I believe that would be an artifact of the sparse data... I can't see how that could happen otherwise, and I've never seen any report on the event that didn't say the tornado happened coincident with the low.

What I meant was if you look at the SFC low track (marked by the arrows), the tri-state event was north of those arrows. I assumed those arrows were the center of the low, and that the tornado track either right along or just slightly to the north of that line... Anyway, I think I have gone far enough off topic, and I will stop now :lol:

EDIT: Sorry, didn't see Jeff's post as I was constructing mine at the time.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Very nice couplet with the tornado-warned storm now crossing the MS river from the bootheel into NWrn Tenn.

 

[nickgrillo]

Very nice couplet with the tornado-warned storm now crossing the MS river from the bootheel into NWrn Tenn.

Yeah, and that storm is in prime area... In addition to the strong to extreme shear, this storm is invof enhanced sbCAPE in excess of 1500j/kg. Strong low-level mesocyclone now right over Cottonwood Point -- I wouldn't be surprised if it has a tornado on the ground right now...

 

[Jarrod Cook]

Here's something you dont see everyday in the warnings:

TAKE COVER NOW! YOU HAVE LITTLE TIME TO REACT...AS THIS TORNADO IS
MOVING AT AN INCREDIBLE RATE OF SPEED.

Thats for the tornado warning in New Madrid County, MO.

 

[tom hanlon]

This event seems like it may begin to spring into action. I would predict a red box to go up East of the present watches. With that in mind I am heading to the Cincinatti OH region. I figure that there will be an hour or two of daylight activity and then some night activity. Too close to pass up.

There has been plenty of sun in Southern OH and nice warm air mass has developed. The front is moving along as predicted, more or less so this event may come together.

The downsides are the speed of the storms and the coming of night and the populated areas.

The positives are.. close to home.

I would imagine with the heating and advection that the later events are going to more like the predicted strength of todays event then what we have had so far.

--
Tom Hanlon

 

[Bill Tabor]

Mesoscale analysis parameters coming up and getting real in southeast MO, extreme southern IL, western KY, western TN, northern MS, and AR. EHI to 4, Lifted -2 to -3, sig severe 30K, sig torn to 2, supercell composite to 16. This are is looking like it means business.

 

[Chris Allington]

Many tornado warnings now coming out in IL, MO, TN and one tornado is reported on the ground by law enforcement near Dyersberg (spelling?)... We have around 2 inches of snow now here in Omaha with winds gusting near 50 mph....

 

[Nick Parker]

Tornado warning in New Madrid County, MO. Trained spotters and law enforcement have it just NE of Poplar Bluff, MO. Local called into the channel 12 station reporting there was a wall cloud with funnels.