11/14/05 (late)-11/15/05 NOW: Midwest-Mississippi Valley

"Mel, just tried NWS PAH and it loaded ok for me."

CRH put out a bulletin that they have had troubles with their website this morning due to a bad drive in one of their systems.
 
CRH put out a bulletin that they have had troubles with their website this morning due to a bad drive in one of their systems.
Click to expand...

Lovely day for that to happen! Anyway, it's working just fine for me now.

The storms in Arkansas looked like they were getting stronger in a few radar scans, but it seems like they have weakened and are remaining lined out for the time being. Perhaps they will get their act together.
 
Circulation becoming apparent on the southern storm in a line of storms N of Little Rock. The most dangerous part of the storm appears to be on or just to the east of Greer's Ferry Lake. This could get interesting in a hurry.

Gabe
 
Looks like some are finally realizing the threat here. At least a dozen schools are dismissing early around here, with more calling in every minute due to the pending weather.

The ole' sun has poked out a few times around here. Looks to be some decent instabilty. Waiting on the line in Mid-AR to get within PAH radar range.

Current Temp. is 71 degrees F with very sticky air.
 
Wow.....OK my take,

Currently it appears that even ONE of these Arkansas t-boxes that have been in effect for the past 24 hours remains to verify. The cell in MO that was TOR warned (now expired) looked like nothing terribly special, and everything in AR looks like linear PoS sausage right now. And linear PoS sausage moving at 55mph at that!!! And linear PoS sausage moving at 55mph with a gust front now racing out ahead of it - at THAT!! :lol:

Not that we haven't seen what can strong dynamics moving in can do to what are apparently clusters of crap storms (think June 12th 05 Girard TX)....but somehow I don't believe that the total and complete destruction of the state of AR is at hand.

But......I could be wrong!

KR
 
1km high res sat images and lower res animations available for KY and surrounding areas here:

http://www.allisonhouse.com/chasing/hires....php?display=sat

You can see the storm blowing up south west of the toe of KY

And here http://weather.kyham.net/#current
You can also see the large temperature variation along the ohio river where the clouds haven't cleared enough yet from the morning storm.

If the clouds don't clear into central Indiana anytime soon that should slow things down wouldn't it?
 
Wow, that's amazing that schools are letting out early because of the potential of bad weather of the "summer-type" form as opposed to the fine, powdery stuff. Can't say as that I can ever remember that happening.

And speaking of which; isn't this one of the latest dates in the year where a "HIGH" forecasted Convection Outllook has ever occured?

One final note; note what the Day 1 Outlook would have looked like if it would have existed for the March 18th, 1925 Tri-State Tornado in the link below:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/1925/nvt_body1.php

Eerily similar to today's, isn't it?
 
As far as reflectivity goes, the line south of Jonesboro is actually looking better now. However, as Karen noted, it still looks pretty junky at this point.
 
The eastern convective line segment is acting to veer the surface winds ahead of the second (western) line segment north and west of Little Rock. Latest RUC mesoanalysis shows this, with decreasing SRH in the Arkansas part of the risk area. There seems to be about 40-50% cloud coverage, so there is some strong heating occurring across the southern half of the high risk area. In addition, strong flow at all levels should work to quite advect in uncontaminated air from those places that are experiencing the eastern line attm. Not a whole lot of CAPE available to the western line, with the max
CAPE immediately ahead of the eastern line segment that is filling in just west of Paducah and Memphis. I'm not sure as though the presence of the eastern line won't have some significant impacts on the CAPE and low-level shear available ahead of the western line. Again, strong flow will help bring in uncontaminated air, though there may still be some residual outflow/effects, and with some veered winds, lowlevel isn't AS strong. LOL Of course it seems ot be the difference between extremely strong low-level shear and just very strong low-level shear, still strong enough to support high-end tornadoes. Of course, this is a rapidly evolving system, so things can change quickly.

EDIT: There is some significant 0-3km CAPE ahead of the western line, so this may entirely compensate for the weaker low-level shear invof the western line.
 
that line approaching the Miss. River along AR/TN has really started to intensify per latest NQA vol. scans. Looking at the High Res. Vis on cod out of the area shows about 1/2 to 3/4 insolation in NW. MS and parts of W. Tenn.
Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows high supercell composite value and rather notable sig tornaod probs in W. Tenn and N. MS. So I would look for an immeninent explosion of severe activity w/ this line as it crosses the River.
 
"""If the clouds don't clear into central Indiana anytime soon that should slow things down wouldn't it?"""

With winds out of the south gusting to 40mph south of the warm front, there should be ample time for unstable air from the south to advect into indiana and ohio.
 
Wow, that's amazing that schools are letting out early because of the potential of bad weather of the "summer-type" form as opposed to the fine, powdery stuff. Can't say as that I can ever remember that happening.

And speaking of which; isn't this one of the latest dates in the year where a "HIGH" forecasted Convection Outllook has ever occured?

One final note; note what the Day 1 Outlook would have looked like if it would have existed for the March 18th, 1925 Tri-State Tornado in the link below:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/1925/nvt_body1.php

Eerily similar to today's, isn't it?
Click to expand...

If it IS similar to the 1925 event, then MI would be the one to see the long-tracked violent TOR. Remember that the 1925 tornado developed very near the cold front / warm front / SFC low intersection(tripple point) - which is forecast to move through southern lower MI. Also, note that temps right before the tornado were in the upper 50's to lower 60's - not exactly "unstable" (I'm sure lapse rates made up for it, but I can't help but feel a lack of threat with temps in the 50's).

I'll see if I can pull up some archived data for that date from NCEP.
 
"""If the clouds don't clear into central Indiana anytime soon that should slow things down wouldn't it?"""

With winds out of the south gusting to 40mph south of the warm front, there should be ample time for unstable air from the south to advect into indiana and ohio.
Click to expand...

RUC is forecasting 55 to 60 F dewpoints into IN today. LI's to -2 by 0z before that not much LI wise. My guess is the show will be ongoing further south and west for some time before IN picks up. IN is also too far east of the 500mb vort. Later tonight 06z shows that it may be near the right entrance region of upper jets. So perhaps nighttime action.

EDIT: I take that back about IN. Cells are quickly getting to the southern part of that state soon. Perhaps upper jets are already having influence near that area even if 500mb pva isn't.
 
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