What I wouldn't give for this to be 1pm with full sun right now... Incredible low-level shear has developed (>600 0-1km SRH in eastcentral Oklahoma) as a strong low-level jet lays atop southeasterly or easterly surface flow. Dewpoints have risen rapidly across central and eastern Oklahoma, with OUN rising about 10 degrees in the past 3 hours. Temperatures have also risen south of OUN a few degrees in the past few hours. There was a time of very light winds after the sun set here in OUN, which helped the temp drop a few degrees this evening. If the surface winds pick up as the surface low deepens, any nocturnal inversion that is present may mix out, allowing for true surface-based convection. With surface temperatures holding steady or possibly rising, and surface moisture rising as well, surface-based instability may develop. Current SPC mesoanalysis is indicating ~1500 MUCAPE (elevated in this case) near and west of OUN, with 1000-1500 j/kg MUCAPE across much of eastern Oklahoma. As stated earlier, low-lever shear is very intense (40-50 kts 0-1km shear across central OK, yes that's 0-1km shear) Of course, if a storm is elevated, it won't ingest this rich low-level vorticity, so the shear will do little to the storm.
A look out the window about 10 minutes ago showed a TCU trying to go up over eastern OUN. It's been nice with the full moon, as it lit up some turkey towers very nicely earlier this evening.
EDIT: Surface winds have picked up to the 10-15kts range south of I40 in Oklahoma, so I think any nocturnal inversion that may be present may begin to weaken or mix out altogether, allowing for surface-based convection. Not much SBCAPE now, but >60 tds lurk just south of I40 and continue to head northward.
