11/14/05 (late)-11/15/05 NOW: Midwest-Mississippi Valley

[Chris Sokol]

The way everything is filling in up in NE OK, it looks like the best area for discrete cells may be closer to Central OK. Nice cell went up here raspidally in LIncoln County, but man is it hauling to the NE.

 

[nickgrillo]

With very weak (or non-existant) SB-instability, I don't think we'll see high-end tornadoes, but if a storm encounters a pocket of locally higher instability -- watch out.

I couldn't have explained it better myself...

I am very much liking the activity near the warm front across northern KY -- with two storms showing defined low-level rotation. One of them being severe warned (just north of Elizabethtown) and embedded within the line stretching along the front. The other one being very isolated to the south near Eddyville... Both of these storms are invof enhanced mixed-layer CAPE of 500j/kg. Any of these storms (particularly the northern-most storm near Elizabethtown) can produce tornadoes quickly...

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Folks I got a hunch thats something very possibly could happen btwn 2-3am local time in SE OK south of I-40 east of I-35. I just see the possibility of something really bad happening with that surface low tracking more and more into that area and w/ the wind gusts the mesonet is reporting in that area. Keep an eye on it.

 

[Robert Dewey]

For what it's worth, METAR data already showing the low about 4-6MB deeper than what the NAM progged for this time (KGAG down to 999MB). RUC seems to have a near perfect hold on the situation in terms of low level flow, SFC pressures, etc..

I think this is the start of a long 24 to 30 hours....

 

[Gary Stofer]

Does anyone have the ability to course plot the cell with the hook echo in Union Co, KY. Its moving towards the general area that just got creamed on the 6th with many deaths during the early a.m. hours
Lets hope it does not go tornadic as it looks like anytime it will.

"* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MORGANFIELD AND BRECKINRIDGE CENTER.

RADAR CONTINUED TO DETECT ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. "

 

[Ronnie Bradley]

Temperature jumped 4 degrees within the last 35-40 minutes in my area. It looks like the inversion over NE central AR is mixing out. Winds are now increasing out of the S.
And I agree about the possible outbreak over E Oklahoma that Chris W. spoke about. The profiler at DeQueen, AR is showing amazing directional and speed shear :shock: !
update (12 midnight): temp now up to 66. Dew up to 63. Amazingly healthy dewpoints over SE OK / SW and W Arkansas!
Showers beginning to fire up in Searcy county. Several t-storm warned counties in extreme SW Missouri. Discrete light shower over Scott county in Wrn AR. All activity moving to the NE around 30 to 40 mph.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Apparent OFB visible very near to the KINX radar site near Tulsa, which could be the kick-start needed to get the tornado show started tonight in Ern Oklahoma.

 

[Justin Bailey]

I personally will be paying very close attention to the stuff that keeps trying to go up south of the warm fron over western and central KY and northern middle TN. any one of these could take off and become a descrete supercell.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Well, as was expected, SPC has placed a high risk out for a significant portion of the mid-south tomorrow with some very strong wording. It will be interesting to watch unfold to say the least. I hope all those in areas of danger will be ready.

 

[Justin Bailey]

HIGH RISK!!!. in november. wow!!!the next 24 hrs are gonna be incredible.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Well...SPC just went High Risk for tomorrow.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY...WRN TN...FAR NRN MS AND NERN AR...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

I need to decide really fast if I want to mess around with the overnight storms, or head east to Eastern Arkansas.

EDIT: I changed the header to include the Mississippi Valley, as this event covers a much larger area than I was thinking about when I started it.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Not sure if anyone else has monitored the SPC mesoanalysis graphics lately, but there is a wide band of 1-3 Sig Tors over the SE 1/2 of Oklahoma juxtaposed with supercell composites of 16-18. Some serious shear for sure with 0-3km SRH on the order of 700 m2/s2.....incredible.

 

[Justin Bailey]

The tornadic parameters in SE OK are insane. if a storm gets rooted in that juice, there will be nothing to hold it back. it'll just go absolutely nuts.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Well, here's the explanation I have been waiting for as to why I look outside here in Norman and see nothing but clear skies. This is from the latest OUN short term frcst:

AN UPPER AIR BALLOON RECENTLY RELEASED AT NORMAN FORECAST OFFICE INDICATED A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION EXPANDING INTO THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMED THIS
BY SHOWING A RELATIVE LACK OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM OKLAHOMA CITY...SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARDMORE AND MARIETTA.

Guess we'll miss it again here in Norman.

 

[Ronnie Bradley]

By early afternoon, it looks like E and NE Arkansas will get the lions share. Roads (US and state routes) out east of the US 67-167 corridor in Woodruff, Cross, , Jackson, Prarie, Poinsett, St. Francis, Crittenden counties are rather good with a grid-like pattern.
US 64 out of Bald Knob is well paved with good shoulders with some good ares to turn off and view the weather. Just get out of White County and east of Agusta and you will enter the farmlands with sparse trees. Once you reach Wynne right on US 64, stay in the left lane. The right lane goes south on STR 1. Crowley's ridge lies just east of Wynne. Once you cross over, its back to farmland. Beware the small towns east of Wynne. Speed trap city!
Upon reaching Fair Oaks, you will encounter US 49 which is a good N/S route. Right smack dab into farmland that mimicks areas out west.
So... if anybody is going to chase over here in AR, keep US 64 in mind. Stay on state or US highways and you will be fine. Avoid the county roads at all costs!