11/14/05 (late)-11/15/05 NOW: Midwest-Mississippi Valley

Watch out Bowling Green! The meso that has persisted for over 100 miles continues northeastward and is maintaining its rotational intensity. It's actually turned a bit more to the ENE in the past 10-15 mins, so it may end up actually passing just south of Bowling Green.
 
That storm headed toward Bowling Green has wrapped up on itself with a significant BWER/tornadocane style. Damaging straight-line winds are a good possibility with that storm as well as a tornado. Watch out Bowling Green is right!
 
First tornado warning out for southeast Michigan. They must be seeing something I'm not because reflectivity values are quite low up there with no organized severe thunderstorm activity obvious on the radar.
 
Still some low level shear going on SW of Bowling Green, KY with the possibility of a tornado in progress. Man, these storms just don't wanna die. What a day.
 
Hey all,

Sorry for the delayed post. I've been nowcasting for a couple of friends from Purdue who've been making a mad dash outta hell to keep up with those storms around Indy. Earlier, they reported seeing a funnel over there during the first tor warning (that one did NOT touch down). My god, if following these steamrollers on NEXRAD's been tough, can't even imagine how aggravating trying to keep up on the road must be!!:evil:
It's been very interesting nowcasting from seven time zones ahead (currently in Israel--about 1:30am my time)!

Anyway, despite the NUMEROUS tor warnings & TVSs, I think most of it was just moving WAAY TO FAST for anything (sustainable) to drop. That, and what little SBCAPE there was is obviously long gone.
They're still out there (passing thru Indy about now), so maybe they'll get some good shots of the LEWP flying thru.
I pray & hope this LEWP doesn't give us another sad disaster!!

My thoughts are with the folks affected by the worst tonight...

Jon Merage

Edit: WOW--that's the nastiest LEWP I've seen in years!! God, I hope those people are heading underground!
 
Originally posted by Andy Wehrle
First tornado warning out for southeast Michigan. They must be seeing something I'm not because reflectivity values are quite low up there with no organized severe thunderstorm activity obvious on the radar.

The low level couplet was actually decent (60KNTS gate to gate on L3 data - haven't checked any L2 yet), and it's right on the warm front - enhancing the tornado risk... I agree though, it doesn't look organized on the BREF, and temps are currently sitting around 51F - Ouch.

Stuff from the south will likely advect, and I also see new development along the cold front.
 
Very concerned about what the Nashville area is going to see from these storms in the next hour or two -- very strong couplet just north of the Charlotte area in Dickson County moving to the ENE/NE. Even if this particular cell misses the city to the north, there is another area of concentrated rotation near the Humphreys/Perry county line, which will likely track right up I-40 and into the Nashivlle metro.
 
" They must be seeing something I'm not because reflectivity values are quite low"

Don't look at reflectivity to find rotation, use SRM. It shows a nice couplet from time to time, it seemed to weaken past Dundee but now picking up again. FF report of a possible funnel near Maybee.
 
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