State of the Chase Season 2026

[Andy Wehrle]

With met spring only a week away and at least one fairly decent Midwest February chase day already in the books last Thursday, kind of surprised no one has pulled the trigger on this annual tradition yet so I'll do the honors.

This is the place to discuss seasonal factors - drought, teleconnections/MJO, and signals in long-range modeling; p*** and moan during slow periods/Omega blocks, hand-wring over whether or not an active period will coincide with your chasecation, etc.

The GFS has been fairly consistent with at least an active jet stream pattern in the first week of March. Crucial details such as trough timing/orientation, moisture quality, etc all highly uncertain at this range as is to be expected.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Thanks for opening the annual thread. The last time I did it -- it was a dud year and I'm kind of afraid to jinx the season. Maybe you will do better.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I usually get really antsy about chasing and how the season is looking, but I’m not feeling it just yet…. Could just be that it’s still early, or that I’m too preoccupied with issues at work… Could also be the new drumming hobby that I started last October - it’s given me something else to be passionate about without investing all my mental energy into the anticipation of storm chasing, which as we all know can so often frustrate and disappoint… But of course I am looking forward to getting out there, and with my two youngest children now away at college, I am finally free of dance recitals (which are blessed memories, but for eight years unfortunately scheduled the weekend before Memorial Day) and other such familial obligations. Right now my plan is to spend Mother’s Day at home with my wife (it’s also my son’s birthday that weekend) and then head out. I move one daughter out of her dorm the first week of May, so that timing works well. My one remaining obstacle is that my other daughter doesn’t finish until the worst possible time, at the end of the third week of May. I am looking into companies that offer moving and shipping services for college students / dorms. I need to make sure I get that resolved soon or it’s going to cause me more stress than any below-average seasonal tornado forecast!

 

[William Monfredo]

...it’s still early, or that I’m too preoccupied with issues at work… Could also be the new drumming hobby that I started last October - it’s given me something else...

January's tornado count made it to a little more than half the monthly average; February's not exactly producing given the eastern trough.
Anyone else notice that the troughs this year seem to appear further east? Just an observation. 500 mb heights & SLPs for yesterday below.
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I'm not making any predictions at this time, but it seems interesting to me that hurricanes were all east of US landfall by how-many-ever hundreds of miles last year. And so in a general sense, I'm wondering how this pattern might adjust itself or how long it continues with an eastern bias.
I'm not complaining, because I'm grilling out in the middle of February on the deck when the ridging allows for temps 64 to 74 degrees F!

 

[Randy Jennings]

Anyone else notice that the troughs this year seem to appear further east? Just an observation.

I'm hopeful that the Jan/Feb plains ridging and eastern troughing is a good sign for spring plains chasers. Weather always seems to be nature's attempt to rebalance (i.e. high pressure moving to low pressure). It also seems like the upper air pattern tendencies change every couple of months. My hope (at least as a chaser and not for my home's roof) and gut says that that ridging moves east this spring and troughing returns to the plains. SPC forecaster Andrew Lyons (TwoDogsWx) made a interesting post on X yesterday talking about how things are looking up starting the 2nd week of March.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I certainly wonder the fate of the high plains this season with a historic LACK of snow, both on the high plains and up in the mountains. Denver has yet to see snow in February, and if it holds (it'll be 70 degrees today), it'll be the second time in history Denver went snowless in February (last was 2009, I believe).

Obviously we're getting into a couple of our snowiest potential months in March and April, so we could get a late surge, which would go a long way to wetting things up here.

I feel like the transition to El Nino usually bodes well for the pattern in the high plains, but that won't do too well if we can't get any juice. Lots of blowing dust and fires, me thinks.

 

[William Monfredo]

True words, Tony, about the potential for March and April snows for Denver.

With this dryness and warmth, the month of February reminds me of January 2012.

That year in northwestern NE, the Chadron area certainly experienced major wildfires.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Will say that medium-long range guidance is going after a pretty loud signal for an active storm track establishing itself from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley around the first weekend in March onward into mid-month. Details around timing, severe t-storm, or excessive rainfall potential are naturally all too early to call, but climatologically this could favor an uptick in severe weather activity and some early-season chasing potential for some, especially from the Delta region northward into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Eyeballing March 5-15 for a potential run of organized storms across this region.

 

[Jeff House]

Chase early and chase often! For years I thought it disciplined to sit out the sloppy South early season and wait patiently for the Plains. Such discipline paid off in 2025, but it had a mixed track record the previous few years. I will try to chase anything in the South starting around the time change. Conveniently, a favorable pattern is forecast starting about that day (previous posts) and it could go into the middle of March.

I have concerns about April, but the six to eight week sub-seasonal forecast is notoriously fickle. Right now threats include an active stratosphere and/or poorly timed MJO progression - could get troughy east. We want to avoid that horror movie!

credit CWG

May is peak season but drought concerns are noted in previous posts above. Frankly I don't worry about May anymore. So many new and solo drivers are out, distracted by data, and creating as much or even greater danger than drunk drivers. Is the hobby even safe anymore? We have other threads for that. Here I just want to say I'm getting (not there yet) more agnostic about whether we get a pattern in May or not.

Plan is to take a longer late-season trip in June. One can't normally find a week of a standing trough like in May. June is typically look for modest flow with a general southwest flow. Won't get an obvious Rockies trough. June vacay requires 10-14 days with some flexible work arrangements. We'll see how the season goes.

For now, chase the South. Hope for Mid-South / Delta or even early Midwest action. Get after it!

 

[Randy Zipser]

Anyone else notice that the troughs this year seem to appear further east? Just an observation. 500 mb heights & SLPs for yesterday below.

Very interesting observation, William. As a "fun" exercise, I was wondering how the mean upper-air trough positioning looked in April, 2011, still the most active tornado month in the most historic tornado season on record in this century. I was looking for any persistent synoptic similarities in what is occurring now, as a possible precursor to what might occur later this spring (particularly April, 2026).

As it turns out, February, 2011, does have some similarity to February, 2026, to date, in that there has been persistent winter troughiness over the eastern CONUS in each case and that the month of February in both of these years was characterized by La Nina climatic regimes, albeit moderate-to-strong in 2011 but weakening in 2026. Of course, there are numerous short-term influences that can affect how and when severe-weather events occur, so long-range forecasting can never depend exclusively upon apparent similarities between any different years. The "apparent" seasonal similarities could be--and likely are--nothing more than random coincidence or natural "white noise."

Nonetheless, the attachment and link below show some good information relating why 2011 and 2026 could end up looking alike after the 2026 spring tornado season is over. We'll just have to wait and see what happens...

AI Overview

During February 2011, the mean upper-air trough position was located over the eastern United States, part of a persistent atmospheric pattern that featured a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific and a deep, cold trough over the central and eastern US.

Key Aspects of the February 2011 Trough Position:

• Persistent Eastern Trough: The upper-level trough was entrenched over the central/eastern US for much of the month, allowing arctic air masses to drive far south, impacting areas as far as New Mexico and Texas.
• Arctic Vortex Correlation: This pattern was characterized by a persistent Arctic vortex over eastern Canada, which helped funnel cold air into the trough.
• Active Storm Track: The position of this trough (often diving into the Rockies and then over the Mississippi Valley) created a high-intensity, active storm track, resulting in significant winter weather events, including the "Groundhog's Day Blizzard" from Jan 31–Feb 2, 2011.
• Resulting Temperature Anomalies: The positioning of the trough caused below-normal temperatures throughout the eastern U.S. and into the Deep South, with multiple cold, heavy-snow events affecting the region.

This pattern was largely influenced by a moderate-to-strong La Niña event, which often favors this specific type of trough-ridge configuration over North America.

Also,

April 2011: The most tornadoes on record in April - ustornadoes.com

 

[Warren Faidley]

Long range forecasts are sorcery.... but always fun to talk about. I don't remember the last time some poor chaser guessed it right and was remembered with kudos, awards and cash prizes.