Andy Wehrle
EF5
With met spring only a week away and at least one fairly decent Midwest February chase day already in the books last Thursday, kind of surprised no one has pulled the trigger on this annual tradition yet so I'll do the honors.
This is the place to discuss seasonal factors - drought, teleconnections/MJO, and signals in long-range modeling; p*** and moan during slow periods/Omega blocks, hand-wring over whether or not an active period will coincide with your chasecation, etc.
The GFS has been fairly consistent with at least an active jet stream pattern in the first week of March. Crucial details such as trough timing/orientation, moisture quality, etc all highly uncertain at this range as is to be expected.
This is the place to discuss seasonal factors - drought, teleconnections/MJO, and signals in long-range modeling; p*** and moan during slow periods/Omega blocks, hand-wring over whether or not an active period will coincide with your chasecation, etc.
The GFS has been fairly consistent with at least an active jet stream pattern in the first week of March. Crucial details such as trough timing/orientation, moisture quality, etc all highly uncertain at this range as is to be expected.
