State of the Chase Season 2026

[Andy Wehrle]

With met spring only a week away and at least one fairly decent Midwest February chase day already in the books last Thursday, kind of surprised no one has pulled the trigger on this annual tradition yet so I'll do the honors.

This is the place to discuss seasonal factors - drought, teleconnections/MJO, and signals in long-range modeling; p*** and moan during slow periods/Omega blocks, hand-wring over whether or not an active period will coincide with your chasecation, etc.

The GFS has been fairly consistent with at least an active jet stream pattern in the first week of March. Crucial details such as trough timing/orientation, moisture quality, etc all highly uncertain at this range as is to be expected.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Thanks for opening the annual thread. The last time I did it -- it was a dud year and I'm kind of afraid to jinx the season. Maybe you will do better.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I usually get really antsy about chasing and how the season is looking, but I’m not feeling it just yet…. Could just be that it’s still early, or that I’m too preoccupied with issues at work… Could also be the new drumming hobby that I started last October - it’s given me something else to be passionate about without investing all my mental energy into the anticipation of storm chasing, which as we all know can so often frustrate and disappoint… But of course I am looking forward to getting out there, and with my two youngest children now away at college, I am finally free of dance recitals (which are blessed memories, but for eight years unfortunately scheduled the weekend before Memorial Day) and other such familial obligations. Right now my plan is to spend Mother’s Day at home with my wife (it’s also my son’s birthday that weekend) and then head out. I move one daughter out of her dorm the first week of May, so that timing works well. My one remaining obstacle is that my other daughter doesn’t finish until the worst possible time, at the end of the third week of May. I am looking into companies that offer moving and shipping services for college students / dorms. I need to make sure I get that resolved soon or it’s going to cause me more stress than any below-average seasonal tornado forecast!

 

[William Monfredo]

...it’s still early, or that I’m too preoccupied with issues at work… Could also be the new drumming hobby that I started last October - it’s given me something else...

January's tornado count made it to a little more than half the monthly average; February's not exactly producing given the eastern trough.
Anyone else notice that the troughs this year seem to appear further east? Just an observation. 500 mb heights & SLPs for yesterday below.
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I'm not making any predictions at this time, but it seems interesting to me that hurricanes were all east of US landfall by how-many-ever hundreds of miles last year. And so in a general sense, I'm wondering how this pattern might adjust itself or how long it continues with an eastern bias.
I'm not complaining, because I'm grilling out in the middle of February on the deck when the ridging allows for temps 64 to 74 degrees F!

 

[Randy Jennings]

Anyone else notice that the troughs this year seem to appear further east? Just an observation.

I'm hopeful that the Jan/Feb plains ridging and eastern troughing is a good sign for spring plains chasers. Weather always seems to be nature's attempt to rebalance (i.e. high pressure moving to low pressure). It also seems like the upper air pattern tendencies change every couple of months. My hope (at least as a chaser and not for my home's roof) and gut says that that ridging moves east this spring and troughing returns to the plains. SPC forecaster Andrew Lyons (TwoDogsWx) made a interesting post on X yesterday talking about how things are looking up starting the 2nd week of March.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I certainly wonder the fate of the high plains this season with a historic LACK of snow, both on the high plains and up in the mountains. Denver has yet to see snow in February, and if it holds (it'll be 70 degrees today), it'll be the second time in history Denver went snowless in February (last was 2009, I believe).

Obviously we're getting into a couple of our snowiest potential months in March and April, so we could get a late surge, which would go a long way to wetting things up here.

I feel like the transition to El Nino usually bodes well for the pattern in the high plains, but that won't do too well if we can't get any juice. Lots of blowing dust and fires, me thinks.